Housing Market in 10-20 years time

Radiantsoul

Bullfighter wrote: »

Yes.. but bear in mind that everything requires energy to supply in today's society. Food, water, travel & clothing.

Yes, but energy won't disappear merely grow more expensive and probably their will be greater variability of supply as many renewables cannot just be turned on or off.

Radiantsoul

bigbigmamamoo wrote: »

but different houses will be effected differently surely. commuting costs will go up as will heating costs, making detatched homes with long commutes less affordable, but city centre flats more cost effective

Yes, although trends in IT might mean people need to commute less and so perhaps an inner city location might not be as desirable.

bigbigmamamoo

olly300 wrote: »

In the UK city centre flats are poorly built.

If they were built like in lots of Europe i.e. heating from a communal boiler then they would be more energy efficient.

Plus those in detached houses can use wood or coal to heat their houses. A bit hard if you are in a flat built after 1960 as they don't tend to fireplaces and chimneys.

depends on the flats though, many tenement flats have fireplaces

Kenny4315

10 years time I see a rise in actuals of around 80% from now. So if we start at a £100k base, that's up to £180k, and in 20 years I see 200% from actual now taking into account cummalative growth, so up to £300k. Just as a rough guess-timation. Obviously there will be some peaks and troughs along the way, so as usual timing will be the key.

Davesnave

I think medium-sized houses with a south sloping arable field or two will be doing OK, not just for growing the extra food we shall need to produce, but for generating electricity too.

Of course, I would say that, but property with the potential to create food or fuel has to be a no-brainer. Even having one's own private water supply may come to be a very desirable feature.

olly300

bigbigmamamoo wrote: »

depends on the flats though, many tenement flats have fireplaces

Were they built before the 60's?

I live in a flat with a fireplace but that's because it was built before the 60's. Likewise every flat I've lived in that was built before the 60s has a fireplace there as all those built after I've stayed in don't.

shortchanged_2

I suppose in an ideal world it would be nice to see house prices grow the same as the rate of inflation. That is however after they have returned to a more realistic level than they currently are.

This combined with strict lending criteria that is maintained would hopefully reduce the continuous boom and bust cycle we repeatedly get.

However it is unlikely to happen so who knows what the housing market will be like in 10-20 years time following more cycles of property boom and bust.

IveSeenTheLight

shortchanged wrote: »

I suppose in an ideal world it would be nice to see house prices grow the same as the rate of inflation. That is however after they have returned to a more realistic level than they currently are.

thing is, there already had been a larger correction both in nominal and percentage terms than there was in the 90's.

House prices corrected to the long term 30 year trend as shown by Nationwide.

This trend incporporated the peaks and troughs of the booms and busts over the last 30 years

Over the last few months it did trend that line very closely and is currently underneath the trend line again.

This trend showed a 2.9% per annum increase over the 30 years.

Radiantsoul

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

thing is, there already had been a larger correction both in nominal and percentage terms than there was in the 90's.

House prices corrected to the long term 30 year trend as shown by Nationwide.

This trend incporporated the peaks and troughs of the booms and busts over the last 30 years

Over the last few months it did trend that line very closely and is currently underneath the trend line again.

This trend showed a 2.9% per annum increase over the 30 years.

Yeah, although that analysis seems to be nothing more than a line of best fit plotted over 30 years. There has been a lot of social change in that period, inflation and interests rates have dropped, mortage availability has probably moved up and down...

IveSeenTheLight

Radiantsoul wrote: »

Yeah, although that analysis seems to be nothing more than a line of best fit plotted over 30 years. There has been a lot of social change in that period, inflation and interests rates have dropped, mortage availability has probably moved up and down...

Agreed, however it does not seem to have changed much as the timescale moves on.
There seems to be a fraction of 1% variance.

30 years is a long time and longer than the standard mortgage amortization period to reflect over to cover all the ups and downs