Premium Bonds Question

kenshaz

I agree with Cypher,my nationality has absolutely nothing to do with my intelligence,why during this debate has one individual resorted to personal comments? Cypher put forwarded a perfectly good observation,for debate.The individual knows to whom I am referring.

kenshaz

looks like according to the result list that you need a min of £2000,clump,one exception,in the big winners

seven-day-weekend

ERNIE is a random number generator (Electronic Random Number Indicator Equipment).

No one number stands any more chance than any other number.

The reason some people win more than others is SOLELY that they have more bonds.
I bond = 1 chance
20,000 bonds = 20,000 chances

There uis no reason why it should matter when or in what configuration your bonds were bought.

In fact, I think it was last year, one of the high prize winners won with £1 holding that they had had since the 1960s.

penniesmakepounds_2

I dont believe consecutive numbers win more prizes than scattered numbers but (I have a 8k holding - 1 x 5000 bond, 1 x 2000 bond, and 2 x 500 bond) I have won 11 prizes since March 2005. SEVEN of those prizes were generated from the 5K bond. Makes you think eh?

johnofhertford

It certainly does make you think - 62.5% of your bonds have won 63.6% of your prizes. A pretty good example of the fact that more bonds equal more prizes while the size of the cluster makes no difference at all.

[Deleted User]

A couple of months back a major winner came from the Argyll & Bute area. They won with a £1 bond bought back in the 1960s and their total holding was £60.

How does this fit into any of your theories?

A person I know has the full £30k and has won NOTHING in 2 years.

I have about £2k, bought monthly bit by bit via direct debit and have won six times in 2 years - each time £50.

It's got to be random!

Cypher

whambamboo wrote:

One single example of superstition does not mean anything.

Which was my reason for posting on here to see if it was a one off or if others had noticed similar trends.

Thanks everyone for the replies. I am definitely leaving my numbers as they are :beer:

Cypher

johnofhertford wrote:

It certainly does make you think - 62.5% of your bonds have won 63.6% of your prizes. A pretty good example of the fact that more bonds equal more prizes while the size of the cluster makes no difference at all.

now you won me over with that example.. :beer:

johnofhertford

penniesmakepounds wrote:

I dont believe consecutive numbers win more prizes than scattered numbers but (I have a 8k holding - 1 x 5000 bond, 1 x 2000 bond, and 2 x 500 bond) I have won 11 prizes since March 2005. SEVEN of those prizes were generated from the 5K bond. Makes you think eh?

Incidentally, you're also enjoying pretty good luck. Even if all 11 prizes were for just £50, then your return has been about 6.9% in about 18 months, roughly 4.6% per annum, compared to the nominal expected return of just over 3%.

penniesmakepounds_2

11 prizes = 3 x £100 and 8 x £50. I am no good at calculations but I dont think the returns are that bad for someone who started investing from March 2005 when I bought the £5000 bond. Beginners luck?