beware artemis strategic assets

Jegersmart

So up 1%?

For a low volatility alternative I sometimes use CF Miton Special Situations personally, but it depends on the aim. As I said, I am not slagging this fund off, I just don't think the rewards stack up versus risk - but that is very subjective ofc.

J

StevieJ

Jegersmart wrote: »

So up 1%?

For a low volatility alternative I sometimes use CF Miton Special Situations personally, but it depends on the aim. As I said, I am not slagging this fund off, I just don't think the rewards stack up versus risk - but that is very subjective ofc.

J

They seem to be gambling on a US,UK but mainly Japan govt debt coming under pressure. So far they have been on the wrong side of the bed.

grey_gym_sock

i'm not slagging off this specific fund, either, but i am slagging off the general idea of funds where the fund manager can do pretty much whatever they like (e.g. betting on currencies, or commodities, or shorting anything).

it's relying far too much on the manager's skill, something which it's very hard to have confidence in (for any kind of fund).

at least if you invest in an asset class with long-term positive returns (e.g. equities, property), the returns from a manager with even average skill may be acceptable (if not quite worth the higher cost of active management). but a fund's investment universe includes shorting, etc, the returns from an averagely skilled manager will be closer to zero - and also harder to measure.

Jegersmart

StevieJ wrote: »

They seem to be gambling on a US,UK but mainly Japan govt debt coming under pressure. So far they have been on the wrong side of the bed.

Hi Stevie

How is this relevant to my point regarding volatility?

J

sabretoothtigger

This manager is very well established, thats why they gave him the job. He has good track record.
The japanese bonds pay like 0.1% interest. The main concern is capital value, the only way they can stay high price is through forced buying maybe like Argentina did

However its pretty much fact that bond prices will go down because demand is going to fall. The reason this would be fact is the population is decling and especially the working population.
That means those who save towards pension is getting less. In fact its a see saw, as pension savers reduce the people who spend their pension is increasing faster then any new workers. That means you cash the pension in, interest as said is too low

I guess its possible foreigners could buy these bonds, there is south korea who have ties and work within Japan.
Foreign workers tend to send their money home, YEN is very high so this likely gives much more money

The final reality is forced bond buying through QE. This will force prices up and they have done it for over a decade I think. UK we only have 3 years of stupidity, these guys are the experts.
So the flaw in this fund is he should also short YEN in case they print that to support government debt. The two should be tied I think but Japan does export alot and have its foreign business buying YEN as they bring profits home

Japan has very extreme kind of loyalty. I dont think they will default, the people own these bonds. It must come down to currency weakness, they will do more QE. All the same, interest seems likely to rise Japan and everywhere

I hold neptune japan which shorts the currency and is actually long sterling, crazy fund. The guy made 130% in 2008 but its been dire since, as the tide turns it will flip again I reckon

Artemis +1.36 %
Neptune +0.65