Asking prices fall 1.1%

Blacklight

DervProf wrote: »

Really ?

If I saw a property with an asking price of £160K, I could afford to buy it.

If the same property had an asking price of £320K, I couldn`t afford to buy it (unless I put in a very cheeky offer that would almost certainly be rejected).

I`d say that asking prices, whether rising or falling have a massive effect on actual selling prices (and the number of sales).

The number RM come up with every month is irrelevant. It's the one index that really is meaningless.

A £2m house in London reduces by 0.1% (£2,000) and a £100,000 house in Belfast by the same amount (2%). The headline is 'Asking prices fall by an average of 1.1% across the country", when in fact they haven't.

des_cartes

FTBFun wrote: »

When will it hit your threshhold then?

These are my target prices:

2 bed terrace = £80k
3Bed Semi = £100k
4 Bed detatched = £140k

Averages for the UK of course, some areas more some less but overall the average house price for the UK of around 100k is when I will buy again. These numbers represen a 1% fall each month for 3 years which is happening now. Obviously if inflation takes off then I will revise the numbers but as long as wage inflation stays low then these are the prices I will be guided by.

FTBFun

des_cartes wrote: »

These are my target prices:

2 bed terrace = £80k
3Bed Semi = £100k
4 Bed detatched = £140k

Averages for the UK of course, some areas more some less but overall the average house price for the UK of around 100k is when I will buy again. These numbers represen a 1% fall each month for 3 years which is happening now. Obviously if inflation takes off then I will revise the numbers but as long as wage inflation stays low then these are the prices I will be guided by.

OK. Why do you care what the average house price for the UK is going to be? I assume you have an area in mind and would focus on that.

It just seems to be a bit silly to wait until some index points out what the average price is going to be in the country first.

You also seem to reckon on a 48% price drop....

Really2

Blacklight wrote: »

The number RM come up with every month is irrelevant. It's the one index that really is meaningless.

A £2m house in London reduces by 0.1% (£2,000) and a £100,000 house in Belfast by the same amount (2%). The headline is 'Asking prices fall by an average of 1.1% across the country", when in fact they haven't.

You hold to much faith in a rightmove method.:)

AFAIK it is:
Total price of houses put on the market / total number of houses put on the market = Average asking price.

There is no adjustment for lowered asking prices or area AFAIK. Just a very crude calculation.
(but I could be wrong:))

1984ReturnsForReal_2

des_cartes wrote: »

These are my target prices:

2 bed terrace = £80k
3Bed Semi = £100k
4 Bed detatched = £140k

Averages for the UK of course, some areas more some less but overall the average house price for the UK of around 100k is when I will buy again. These numbers represen a 1% fall each month for 3 years which is happening now. Obviously if inflation takes off then I will revise the numbers but as long as wage inflation stays low then these are the prices I will be guided by.

Not a chance of that in my area

Its going to be more like:

2 bed terrace = £135k
3Bed Semi = £180k
4 Bed detatched = £230k

des_cartes

FTBFun wrote: »

OK. Why do you care what the average house price for the UK is going to be? I assume you have an area in mind and would focus on that.

It just seems to be a bit silly to wait until some index points out what the average price is going to be in the country first.

You also seem to reckon on a 48% price drop....

No particular area in mind, I have several where I would buy in. If I see an opportunity in any of them I would buy sooner but the UK average shows me when prices will have bottomed out. btw, the price drop I am forecasting is around 40% from and average of 170k down to 100k over 3 years. This could be sooner depending on how quickly interest rates and unemployment rise and how much and how quickly the government withdraw support for the housing market by cutting housing benefit and support for mortgage interest payments for the unemployed.

des_cartes

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Not a chance of that in my area

Its going to be more like:

2 bed terrace = £135k
3Bed Semi = £180k
4 Bed detatched = £230k

The way to look at prices in your area would be to take house prices before the boom funded by dodgy lending (ie before 2000) and apply wage growth over the past 10 years. This will show you where house prices would have been in 2010 if they had followed normal price growth patterns before 2000. That is my formula, what is yours and what area are you in?

Emy1501

Blacklight wrote: »

The number RM come up with every month is irrelevant. It's the one index that really is meaningless.

A £2m house in London reduces by 0.1% (£2,000) and a £100,000 house in Belfast by the same amount (2%). The headline is 'Asking prices fall by an average of 1.1% across the country", when in fact they haven't.

All about sentiment. When RM figures came out last monthe the agent selling my property had buyers call up pulling out or dropping offers. I suspect it will be the sam this month even though asking prices haev risen in my area.

People just see the headline and act based on it. All the houses index are pretty much a waste of time for actual prices especially in ones own area. The reality is though they are driving force when it comes to buyers deciding to buy and sellers considering lowering prices etc.

FTBFun

des_cartes wrote: »

No particular area in mind, I have several where I would buy in. If I see an opportunity in any of them I would buy sooner but the UK average shows me when prices will have bottomed out. btw, the price drop I am forecasting is around 40% from and average of 170k down to 100k over 3 years. This could be sooner depending on how quickly interest rates and unemployment rise and how much and how quickly the government withdraw support for the housing market by cutting housing benefit and support for mortgage interest payments for the unemployed.

Property prices will not fall 40%. Keep dreaming.

des_cartes

Emy1501 wrote: »

All about sentiment. When RM figures came out last monthe the agent selling my property had buyers call up pulling out or dropping offers. I suspect it will be the sam this month even though asking prices haev risen in my area.

People just see the headline and act based on it. All the houses index are pretty much a waste of time for actual prices especially in ones own area. The reality is though they are driving force when it comes to buyers deciding to buy and sellers considering lowering prices etc.

No different than price surveys for anything else really. Why would you rush out and buy tins of beans today when the surveys reported special offers starting next week?