Crashers get ready with those big deposits!

Damaged

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Mate, I have been around a lot longer than you on here and HPC stating that the rise in house prices above income rises was unsustainable.

I had quite a lot of fun over on the C4 forums winding up owners full of themselves until the credit crunch closed it down...

Oh wow that is awesome, must be fun with all winding up all those internet foes with your expert advice and wisdom, never being wrong and predicting what the market will do.
Maybe I can be like you one day..

Damaged

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Your day is nearly here.... :beer:

I bought a few months ago, but made it clear I fully expected a further 25% drop in prices.

Why 25%, why not 20%, what is your basis for making a calculation of a 25% drop?

Whether we get to see another 25% is yet to be seen

So you have no idea, but you'll guess anyway... ok!

but I truly believe the next few months HPI data is going to be shocking, and will knock confidence when public sector bodies will be reducing staff numbers significantly. I reckon we will be 5% down from the "recovery" peak by christmas time, it will take another 2 years to hit the trough, but if you have been clever, saved a massive deposit and are chain free, your day is about to arrive...

Actually given the above and what you have written, the day is not coming for those who have saved, according to you, it will take at least 2 years...

crusty_toenail

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Someone who was smart enough to secure purchase at 25% below local market value by being extraordinarily canny.

Besides, its a long term home, its not a piggy bank. If it loses 25% of its overpriced market value, so what?
.

I did the same as you and bought (below market value) recently.

I know that the price will probably go down much further (perhaps another 15%, as we have already had over 40% drop here in N.Ireland) but it is a family home which ticks all the boxes and we don't intend to move and have very low mortgage:T
I fully expect England to lapse into house price decline from now, I believe high house prices benefit very few in society and have led to poverty and misery for thousands of people, even here in N.Ireland, England brace yourselves for a sharp correction is about to arrive which will benefit.................all (bar a few greedy monkies)

michaels

Declining prices for those who have to sell, declining values for everyone - am I being clear now? Do you really need to explain that the value of an asset is what it would sell for, I think most of us understand that point - even GD by now.

St Albans is seeing big falls:
2007 peak to Feb 2009 down 15-20%
Feb 09 - April 10 back up to peak and peak+ for family homes in good catchment on the back of very low volumes
Since April 10 I would say prices back down by 10% starting at the bottom/middle market but now even hitting the 1m plus homes.

However once sentiment that it is a buyers market becomes established again, supply will again fall - already there is lots of 'extensions' going on that might otherwise be trading up.

At what point the reduction in supply will shift the balance back from buyers to sellers I am not sure.

As I have often stated, for buyers sentiment is key - if it appears that they can purchase a property on the market now or wait a bit for the price to fall or another one to come on for less then waiting makes sense. It was the reverse last summer (09), almost nothing was coming on as sellers had not yet cottoned on to the fact it was a very strong market and buyers were feeling that if they didn't take what was available they would have to pay more for the next one.

This suggests to me that the market could move very quickly to much lower volumes and prices and then see another, probably more gradual, recovery.

In the long run?

I agree with Hamish, demand will outstrip supply and as incomes rise the proportion of income people are willing to spend on housing will increase as other essentials as a share of income tend to fall, due to improved productivity (I guess peak oil, peak food, hollowing out/job export/globablisation could change this historic trend but I don't think they are powerful enough forces yet). Hence in the long term being leveraged in to the market will be a winner on average - although there will be those for whom it doesn't work out if they are forced to sell into a short term dip.

dopester wrote: »

Declining prices for those who do have to sell. Just so you know, it's not in isolation. Your declining prices for those who do have to sell causes declining values for those who own who are not selling.

carolt seems to think your area is beginning to see signs of rapid hits in value. In terms of over just a few weeks. I believe some areas can see rapid falls in value. Hit over a few weeks. Another sharp hit over a few weeks a few months later. Depends upon what sellers are accepting from buyers isn't it.

The recovery is "lower prices" imo. Leverage yourself silly in this market, "for the long term" and in these economic conditions we're up against? No thanks. Property doesn't always go up in value over the long term. Crash and 50 years of stagnant values is as much a possibility for me.

mbga9pgf

Well, 225,000 on SMI will be lapsing over the next year or so, with 60% of them over 60... meaning BIG houses flooding the market with little in the way of market funding. Why by a poxy little barratt newbuild when you can stretch to a 3 or 4 bed semi now flooding the market?

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Someone who was smart enough to secure purchase at 25% below local market value by being extraordinarily canny.

If that makes you smart, it must have made me a genius.;):)

phil_b_2

crazygaijin wrote: »

Well if gold goes to 10,000 an oz as many are predicting

Can you point me to a decent source predicting 10,000oz gold? Preferably not some nutter havin a rant on youtube.

chucknorris

Exocet wrote: »

I'm six feet tall and can bench press 250kg. I have one wife in this country and two overseas. My 17 children are all graduated, and they each live in a million pound house. I drive a Bentley during the week and a Carrera for relaxing. I own three racing horses. I have property in London, Cornwall, San Francisco and Aberdeen. My penis is so large it is featured on Google maps. I am friends with the Blairs, the Mugabes and Paris Hilton.

It's obvious who you really are from the above post. Sorry to tell you this Gordon, but Tony and Cherie don't really consider you a friend

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well that rules out most of the housing bears on here and hpc.

Not clever, below average homebuyer income, and too busy paying someone elses mortgage to save a big chunky deposit.

Although in fairness, a few KIPPERS may do alright if prices dip a bit, although hopefully they won't make the same mistake they did last time....

Get greedy and miss the bottom by a mile.:rotfl:




I've already guaranteed an easy retirement through rising house prices, because I own a mortgage free house, and the second house will be paid off in less than a decade now.

I'm many tens of thousands ahead by buying in 2007 instead of renting since.

Thanks in part to all the crashers subsidising our borrowing.

Thanks for that. Very decent of you.:beer:

You have a cheek to lecture anyone after getting a handout all those years ago.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

doire wrote: »

You have a cheek to lecture anyone after getting a handout all those years ago.

And you have an obsessive urge to keep discussing the fact that we, like millions of other young couples over the years, received a few thousand pounds from parents as help towards a deposit, having saved the rest ourselves.


So just to be clear, what is that you object to?

1. The fact that our parents thought it would be a good way to give us a wedding present?
2. The fact that parents have been helping children onto the housing ladder this way for generations?
3. The fact that this allowed us to buy a house a year or so earlier than we otherwise would have?

Or is this just another one of your pathetic attempts to play the man and not the ball.....

Ad hominem abusive

Ad hominem abuse usually involves insulting or belittling one's opponent in order to invalidate his or her argument, but can also involve pointing out factual but ostensible character flaws or actions which are irrelevant to the opponent's argument.

This tactic is logically fallacious because insults and even true negative facts about the opponent's personal character have nothing to do with the logical merits of the opponent's arguments or assertions.


Examples:

• "You can't believe Hamish when he says the proposed policy would help the economy. He's a right wing Tory toff."
• "Hamish's assertion that buying a house is affordable is nonsense. He got help with his first deposit two decades ago."