Anyone heard of the phrase "Peak Oil"?

frank_begbie

Forget about "Global Warming" and "The Credit Crunch" this is the main problem facing the world today.

It doesn't mean we are going to run out of oil completely, it just means we cannot increase our production in line with demand.

Just Google it and do a little bit of investigating.

How do you fancy paying £6 £7 or even £10 per gallon?

If what I've been finding out is true we could well be paying these kind of prices in the not too distant future. I mean in the next 3 to 5 years.

Graham_Devon

I miss him!!!

sandiep

I wrote an article about this a couple of years ago for small businesses, entitled "is your business still profitable if the price of fuel doubles?"

Many people consider fuel price to be the cost of filling their petrol tank. They don't think of it as being a major contributory factor of every single item on the supermarket shelf, the supply of homecare for the elderly, the cost of staying warm, losing teachers. We live on an island and every single thing that we consume has the price of fuel incorporated into it.

If you buy a plant at dobies - 30% of that that price is transport related.
(I have no interest in dobies )

Yes, Peak oil theory is alive and living, and the only reason we're not rapidly heading there is because we had a worldwide recession and China and India's demand for oil dropped. However, China and other countries are now coming out of recession, and if they increase the price of oil faster than the UK can gain economic recovery, then tbh, I think double dip will be least of our worries.

A group of top level business leaders last year urged the government to build a fuel strategy for the UK.

I have the feeling that our country is simply running flat out towards a very big bad brick wall.

A._Badger

Read and learn http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3823656.ece

lewisa

frank_begbie wrote: »

How do you fancy paying £6 £7 or even £10 per gallon?

Well I paid £5.60 a gallon this morning, so if Im paying £6 in 2015 I'll be over the moon.

sandiep

No one's saying it's running out.

What they are saying is that the easy and cheap access oil is becoming depleted, and that that is left is within politically unstable countries that are very prepared to use oil supply as a bargaining weapon, or where the human rights record is poor, or where oil companies run the risk of having plant/facilities/companies siezed and nationalised. Or are at much deeper levels requiring more technology, development and drilling costs.

None of which are factors that are likely to encourage oil companies to invest the billions of pounds that are needed to start extracting new sources of oil. In order for that risk/return scale to reach the point whereby the oil companies are prepared to take those risks, the price of oil will need to go higher -hence peak oil theory.

Really2

Anyone see this enzym.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/green-motoring/7930287/Car-fuel-could-be-made-from-thin-air.html
Car fuel 'could be made from thin air'

Azotobacter vinelandii, a microbe found around the roots of various food plants, creates an enzyme - vanadium nitrogenase - which in nature produces ammonia from nitrogen gas. But now it has been shown that it can also create propane, the fuel commonly used in camping gas stoves, out of carbon monoxide - a common byproduct of industrial processes.

Markus Ribbe, a scientist at the University of California, says that eventually the enzyme could be tweaked, so that instead of only making the simple three-carbon-atom chain molecule of propane, it could create the longer chains that make up petrol. He says: "Obviously this could lead to new ways to create synthetic liquid fuels if we can make longer carbon-carbon chains."

frank_begbie

A._Badger wrote: »

Read and learn http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3823656.ece

Very true...we are NOT running out of oil.

But what we are doing is losing the battle to keep producing more and more oil to keep up with demand.

We are at or quickly approaching the time when we can no longer keep up with demand, no matter what we do, there is no way we can produce enough.

So we go on a downward slope of production and the price begins to spiral out of control as there isn't enough to go around.

Why do you think the USA invaded Iraq?

A._Badger

frank_begbie wrote: »

Very true...we are NOT running out of oil.

But what we are doing is losing the battle to keep producing more and more oil to keep up with demand.

We are at or quickly approaching the time when we can no longer keep up with demand, no matter what we do, there is no way we can produce enough.

So we go on a downward slope of production and the price begins to spiral out of control as there isn't enough to go around.

I disagree. Peak oil is a myth.

frank_begbie wrote: »

Why do you think the USA invaded Iraq?

Not for its oil - though I appreciate it's a favourite of the knee-jerk conspiracy brigade.

michaels

I think shale gas will buy us some more time.

Peak oil is a good example of markets working well - as prices rise production tends to increase, consumers change behaviour to consume less and innovation speeds up to find less oil intensive replacements for current processes.

amcluesent

I think I've mentioned 'peak oil' a few times...Also, since oil is needed to make synthetic fertilizers, a steady increase in oil prices will increase food prices, on top of transport costs. So we're talking about 'peak food' too. And with the obvious issues (however caused) of climate instability, let's put 'peak water' on the agenda too.

That's a lot of "peaks" coming together in the next few years...Wait! It's the 'Long Emergency' we should all be expecting and planning for.

"A man, he’s like his father
Wishes he was never born
He longs for the time when the clock will chime
And he’s dead for evermore"