Anyone heard of the phrase "Peak Oil"?

Kohoutek

Really2 wrote: »

How do you know any proof, electricity does not have to be made by fossil fuels.

I was just going by what the article I posted says. $100/kg by electrolysis of water, $5/kg from natural gas. If the method that doesn't rely on fossil fuels is 20 times more expensive than using natural gas then a hydrogen economy is a non-starter.

The Honda looks quite promising, it's some kind of electric-hydrogen hybrid. But unless hydrogen can be produced cheaply in huge quantities it's useless as a replacement for the petrol car.

Generali wrote:

I always thought Town Gas was made from decomposing rubbish.

It's wikipedia, but I'm sure it's repeated somewhere else:

Prior to the development of natural gas supplies and transmission systems during 1940s and 1950s, virtually all fuel and lighting gas used in both the United States and Great Britain was manufactured from coal. In the case of Britain, the discovery of large reserves of natural gas in the North Sea in the early 1960s led to the expensive conversion or replacement of most (with the exception of Northern Ireland) of the nation's gas cookers and gas heaters during the late 1960s in order to utilize this newly-supplied energy source. Not surprisingly, the new gas was referred to as "North Sea" gas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gas

Really2

Kohoutek wrote: »

The Honda looks quite promising, it's some kind of electric-hydrogen hybrid. But unless hydrogen can be produced cheaply in huge quantities it's useless as a replacement for the petrol car.
]

But that is the point, electricity is the most likely to be cleanly, cheaply produced in the future.

You then either make hydrogen or use electricity as portable fuel.

Cheap electricity is the stumbling block, the rest is already in place.

So I was pointing out, petrol is a red herring, cheap electricity can overcome our travel problems.

It is either the sun, wind, fusion (if possible on earth) or fission that will hold the key to our future travel.

We could cope without petrol it is just getting the costs down.

Kohoutek

Really2 wrote: »

But that is the point, electricity is the most likely to be cleanly, cheaply produced in the future.

You then either make hydrogen or use electricity as portable fuel.

Cheap electricity is the stumbling block, the rest is already in place.

Electricity doesn't get much cheaper than the way it's produced at the moment, e.g. by burning gas and coal. Wind and solar are much more expensive ways of generating electricity, so there's not much hope for a future of cheap electricity to create hydrogen by electrolysis.

Denmark is the country with the highest proportion of electricity generated from wind, and consequently the highest electricity prices in Europe. Expensive wind energy is the future the UK is pursuing at the moment.

sabretoothtigger

Im more interested in peak coal, it contains more energy then oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal

United Kingdom
Coal output peaked in 1913 in Britain at 287m tons and now accounts for less than one percent of world coal production

We know how that went, they closed the last deep coal mine in recent years I think.



Meanwhile USA has enough gas to discontinue oil use for the next 60 years so their ok though its still needed for plastics


Matt Simmons who predicted the average price for oil in 2010 would be $200 died yesterday. He had previously lost a bet forecasting the increasing price of various commodities and also predicted BP would go bankrupt within a month with costs of over a trillion

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/08/09/without-matt-simmons-has-peak-oil-well-peaked/

bo_drinker

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4xs5FDHu2E

sabretoothtigger

I want a Ford Falcon v8 supercharger. I'd run it on LPG though, 108 octane

Propane is the third most widely used motor fuel in the world. 2008 estimates are that over 13 million vehicles are fueled by propane gas worldwide. Over 20 million tonnes (over 7 billion US gallons) are used annually as a vehicle fuel

Natural gas can power cars also but its a bit more involved but with even higher octane and some skill and technology would make it possibly even more efficient. That kind of development is the way forward really at the moment there is little incentive

The mad max scenario presumes no development or progression.
For electricity I think lithium batteries are touted as the fastest advancing avenue

The energy density of lithium batteries has more than doubled since they were introduced in 1991

Bullfighter

Generali wrote: »

Why leave it to the pollies? The transition from a coal-based economy to an oil based one was managed perfectly well AFAK by the private sector. As oil becomes more expensive, people will be inclined to use other things.

Australia, for example, is a big producer of gas so will move in some part to LNG. Perhaps the UK will go back to Town Gas for cooking. There are generally alternatives to most things, the phrase 'ceteris paribus' that economists love to use (all other things being equal) is the biggest block for taking economics from classroom to real world as all other things aren't equal. If butter goes up tp $50/kg I buy margerine or olive oil. If running a car shoots up in price I eventually move closer to work or buy a cheaper car or move jobs closer to where I am or put pressure on my boss to let me work from home.

If food prices start to rise then more people will grow their own as indeed I am doing as a direct result of the outrageous prices charged by supermarkets out here.

All very interesting, but it doesn't resolve the basic problem.

The alternatives to oil all have very high EROEI ratios, and none are as easy to convert into food as oil.

Why food? Food production today is almost entirely a matter of converting fossil fuels to food, as alternative energy isn't enough alone to make the fertiliser and drive the machines and transport.

So in a way I agree with you Generali, we can absolutely switch to 'olive oil' or 'grow our own' but I guarantee you this, there won't be 6 billion of us doing that.

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

Why leave it to the pollies? The transition from a coal-based economy to an oil based one was managed perfectly well AFAK by the private sector. As oil becomes more expensive, people will be inclined to use other things.

Australia, for example, is a big producer of gas so will move in some part to LNG. Perhaps the UK will go back to Town Gas for cooking. There are generally alternatives to most things, the phrase 'ceteris paribus' that economists love to use (all other things being equal) is the biggest block for taking economics from classroom to real world as all other things aren't equal. If butter goes up tp $50/kg I buy margerine or olive oil. If running a car shoots up in price I eventually move closer to work or buy a cheaper car or move jobs closer to where I am or put pressure on my boss to let me work from home.

If food prices start to rise then more people will grow their own as indeed I am doing as a direct result of the outrageous prices charged by supermarkets out here.

Spot on! ''Mater artium necessitas''

Asheron

Peak oil is a Myth Petrol should be no more than 40p a Litre

When they attack Iran...

It will push the price up to about £4 a litre over night

They will blame the increase on Peak Oil, but really it's because they attacked Iran.

Bullfighter

Asheron wrote: »

Peak oil is a Myth Petrol should be no more than 40p a Litre

When they attack Iran...

It will push the price up to about £4 a litre over night

They will blame the increase on Peak Oil, but really it's because they attacked Iran.

Asheron. Man up. Admit that you believe that all oil is abiogenic. Admit that this is a complete leap of faith because no evidence exists to back up this extraordinary claim.

Peak Oil is not a theory, it is a description of an extremely well characterised process. The only grey area is when we reach the peak.

You being an idiot is a theory one that is rapidly being backed up by anecdotal evidence.