Is it just the greedy left praying for a crash?

spence

I bought in 2007 aaaargh, and reckon the value has dropped 10 grand even although i've spent 5 doing it up a bit. I put down a good deposit and have spent 3 years overpaying what i can so negative equaity is not a problem.

I think greed can catch you out at the time of purchase because people are prone to over stretching themselves. It is at this point you do your deal and that amount of debt will not change with either falls or rises, so matters little.

Even although house price falls will affect me in a negative way I hope for them as I see the market is still overpriced for FTB'ers and our young. I think a crash is the wrong thing to hope for as it affects so many other things, but a slow decline or long stagnation would be a good thing, IMHO.

new_home_owner_3

spence wrote: »

I bought in 2007 aaaargh, and reckon the value has dropped 10 grand even although i've spent 5 doing it up a bit. I put down a good deposit and have spent 3 years overpaying what i can so negative equaity is not a problem.

I think greed can catch you out at the time of purchase because people are prone to over stretching themselves. It is at this point you do your deal and that amount of debt will not change with either falls or rises, so matters little.

Even although house price falls will affect me in a negative way I hope for them as I see the market is still overpriced for FTB'ers and our young. I think a crash is the wrong thing to hope for as it affects so many other things, but a slow decline or long stagnation would be a good thing, IMHO.

i think even if there are falls it will be very slow, there are reports of houses falling by another 0.5 percent in july so thats just over 1 percent in 2 months.

i think its like catch 22, interest rates are at all time low and if you have a decent deposit you can get a great mortgage deal, if you dont you are stuck and you just have to wait until either house prices come right down, or you have to save more money.

Its all about timing if you buy at the right time its great if you dont it can be a nightmare, no one knows the right time, but a few people who where saying house prices are going fall like geofkky and mgbwer3343 got twitchy bums and bought after 12 months of rises.:rotfl:

Thinking back to it, i have just had a little chuckle to myself, the both of them had been going on about this ever looming crash, house prices did fall, but then after 12 months of rises, bringing them back to the levels they was at peak, they both bought.

now thats what i call !!!!!! timing, they both miss the falls in 2008-2009 and then after 12 months of rises they both buy..:rotfl::T

to make things worse straight after they both have bought, house prices drop for the first two months.:eek:

what a right pair of numptys.

chucky

dopester wrote: »

That'll be when more of the bubble believers, (the types who've always told me, "It's always time to buy, don't wish crash on me, go rent if you can't afford it cause I reckon houses are well affordable to buy") begin suddenly collapsing on floors and in the streets. Having epilectic style fits, their eyes horribly locked in state of non-processable disbelief, minds fatally short-circuited by the extent of the falls in value of their homes playing out. It will be an education beyond the limit of their understanding, for many people.

with stuff like this you're lost contributing to this forum.
you're one of the most if not the most intelligent guy on here.

dopester wrote: »

Why would I want to buy now, or indeed during any of the years leading up to the extreme of the boom in values, when I suspect that will be the reality of it coming along for many of the boom-believers who've left themselves crisis prone.

and the reverse will happen to those who didn't make the decision or didn't want to. like everything time will tell if people were right or wrong.

i know for a fact that you're not the type of guy to put all your eggs in one basket - what is your contingency D?

dopester

chucky wrote: »

with stuff like this you're lost contributing to this forum.

Even before posting it I paused long enough to consider you wouldn't be impressed Chucky.

You might not think it a bubble but rather that now the asset values and their general bands we've reached are a reality. That authorities and policy-makers, even maybe markets, will do their utmost to preserve as a reality. And that maybe they have to in order for the system to survive? That could be so. Events and evidence so far suggests this is what political authorities would prefer.

Yes I've got contingency plans for if I'm right, and if I'm wrong (not expanding on it in this thread). I suspect you will have contingency plans in place of your own.

Really2 said on another thread the quote below recently and he's right.

Really2 wrote: »

It may have been a bear trap on this site this time round (the people who purchased in the last 12 months were mainly bearish before).

There have been quite a few people I've got to know something of their circumstances, and for me it hurts a little when I've learnt they bought in the last year or so, when I doubt they've bought at a level of value. When my outlook about deflation and is well known. In a couple of instances especially, and another with business risk which causes me a few shudders against what I believe could be rewarding short term gain but subject perhaps later subject to worrying forces deflationary contraction.

It actually hurts because I fear and worry they are risking too much, haven't bought at a price of value, and could see significant falls in asset value, and have made assumptions about their employment status not likely to be overly effected by downside changes.

Whereas others might be happy they've bought in the genuine belief it's a good positive thing for the person by their own interpretations of. So my point of view isn't greed but based on my own interpretation, and also actually concern for others. It could be the same for others who are genuinely happy for people who've bought.

It isn't greed for me but there is nothing to be ashamed about over financial self-interest, or even financial survival. Rather than being nasty, sometimes I think I should be awarded a "Medal of Decency for Honest Concern Service" for some of the deflationary risks I've outlined every so often. Presenting an alternative view-point in the hope that one or two people may see the logic in it. Maybe I took it too far this time though with the slightly vicious description of how it could hit some people were it to play out that way, even though sometimes I despair at people's decisions (as others may do about my own - especially if their interpretation about house prices/economy proves correct).

chucky

dopester wrote: »

Even before posting it I paused long enough to consider you wouldn't be impressed Chucky.

i'm always impressed by your writing style, the content is always food for thought. that can't be a bad thing.

for me to agree with what you say, we need a new world order. i can't see that happening but it's not impossible.

this is the way that i like to think, not the first two obviously...

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails