Is it just the greedy left praying for a crash?

torontoboy45

chucky wrote: »

that's because it all suits your narrow minded point of view...


if you don't like it - i'm sure you know what to do...

so what should graham do, chucky?

if the HPC posters are motivated by greed can you explain the mindset behind HPI ramping?

blacklight slates some of the HPC mob for looking to capitalise on others' 'misery' but wasn't that exactly what the HPI cheerleaders were up to a few yrs ago?

greed is a base motive but it crosses the spectrum.

where do you stand?

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

Well no Graham. That's where you're going wrong. Assuming.

Here's a conundrum for you. What's the below? Is it:
A) Assumptions
Assumptions
C) Assumptions
D) Load of rubbish but I made it up to make my point
E) Oh rubbish, even if it's D it's still assumptions.

Blacklight wrote: »

These are first time buyers or people looking to use price falls for large gains. That's my point.

P.S. I LOVED how you said the above about assuming and therefore how wrong I am, and then wrote a whole paragraph of assumptions to try to show me I'm wrong. Classy.

Just face it. You have been entirely hypocritical throughout the thread. it's ok, we all do it, but don't start being hypocritical in the very same posts. That's just silly.

phil_b_2

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

I disagree, I would hazard a guess that with the average house costing 6-7x the average salary or say 5-6x with a £30k deposit, that many just want to be able to afford a house in the first place.

After all as we saw yesterday the average house in 1982 cost 3x salary, since then average wage has tripled, average house price has risen over 8x. Forcing people to buy as a couple, forcing their children into childcare (as both have to work), forcing them to stay together miserabley if they want to split up because of finances. House price inflation that outstrips wage inflation is like a cancer in society.

The average wage vs average house price thing is obviously a popular argument that has been debated to death. I've always been of the opinion that it isn't and shouldn't be proportional. The average disposable income vs average house price ratio would be far more telling but I can't find a chart for that.

I.e a persons wage could go up 100% but there disposable income might go up 300% providing living costs stay broadly the same. In that case house prices could perhaps go up 300%. thrice that of the wage increase. Just an example of course.

chucky

torontoboy45 wrote: »

so what should graham do, chucky?

you best ask him - he's big enough and ugly enough to know what he needs to do...

torontoboy45 wrote: »

if the HPC posters are motivated by greed can you explain the mindset behind HPI ramping?

you best ask someone who ramps HPI.

a HPCer is someone who celebrates price falls by saying that they've made £3,000 when there's a monthly announcement from one of the indexes.

i don't see any HPI rampers doing the reverse of that on here - do you?

torontoboy45 wrote: »

blacklight slates some of the HPC mob for looking to capitalise on others' 'misery' but wasn't that exactly what the HPI cheerleaders were up to a few yrs ago?

i have no idea what you're talking about here - which HPI cheerleaders where these?

torontoboy45 wrote: »

where do you stand?

right here - looking out for myself and making my future and my famliies future as secure as i can.
do you do things differently then?

you seem to also seem to be the type thinks that those people that don't see 50% price drops as HPI cheerleaders or 'bulls'...

phil_b_2

torontoboy45 wrote: »

blacklight slates some of the HPC mob for looking to capitalise on others' 'misery' but wasn't that exactly what the HPI cheerleaders were up to a few yrs ago?

greed is a base motive but it crosses the spectrum.

where do you stand?

I don't think that many are miserable because they don't own the house they live in. Many more would far more miserable if they lost all equity and faced financial and personal ruin (I.e if the hpc lot had their way).
Let's put things into perspective.

the_flying_pig

I can’t quite tell whether the OP is complaining about: (1) a lack of morality; or (2) a lack of realism on HPC… I think it’s probably both but in common with the thread title I’ll only consider the first of the two since the second has been done to death.

There are a few very subjective, very emotive, words in the OP that don’t really make a lot of sense to me, such as “greedy” and “misery”.

The fact is that house price fluctuations affect different people in very different ways. They’re zero sum.

It’s not possible for a buy-to-let investor to enjoy capital gains via HPI without an upsize being put a little bit further out of the reach of a hard-working young family.

Similarly it’s not possible for a cash-strapped first time buyer to benefit from the improved affordability brought about by house price falls without a corresponding fall in the pension pot of a hard-working pensioner who isconsidering selling up.

And house prices have now got so high that a big single month’s fluctuation in an index can easily be worth many months’ worth of disposable income. So people care about them a great deal.

That’s one important way in which it’s better for ‘bears’ or ‘bulls’ to flock together – because the perfectly understandable rejoicing by one group following news of a big fluctuation in house prices will inevitably be seen as distasteful gloating by the other group.

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Here's a conundrum for you.

It was logic Graham:

FTB'ers looking to take advantage of a fall or home owners looking to take advantage of a fall.

The alternatives being?

Blacklight

the_flying_pig wrote: »

I can’t quite tell whether the OP is complaining about: (1) a lack of morality; or (2) a lack of realism on HPC… I think it’s probably both

The original point of the post was really to highlight that a lot of the debate from those that genuinely were having a hard time buying has seemed to have ceased.

Things have changed and most of the noise about falls now seems to be driven more by greed than necessity.

An indicator that some people have decided to get on with their lives perhaps?

new_home_owner_3

i dont think house prices will rise and they may fall 0.6 percent a month for the next 12 months, which would a overall drop of 7.2 percent.

this would mean on a average house of 160,000 pounds would be reduced by 12000 pounds

the same house to rent would be about 650 pound a month which works out at 7800 pound for the year.

so if falls continue like they did last month you will save about 4000 pounds over 12 months

Now if you think house prices are going to continually drop for the next 12 months it may be worth waiting, but what happens if they dont?

I think with the margins in the falls we are seeing it will take about 5 years of continuous drops like we are seeeing now, for any of these people wishing for a crash to be happy.

the_flying_pig

new_home_owner wrote: »

i dont think house prices will rise and they may fall 0.6 percent a month for the next 12 months, which would a overall drop of 7.2 percent.

this would mean on a average house of 160,000 pounds would be reduced by 12000 pounds

the same house to rent would be about 650 pound a month which works out at 7800 pound for the year.

so if falls continue like they did last month you will save about 4000 pounds over 12 months.

i'm sure this has been pointed on here a thousand times or more but:

(1) mortgage interest payments are 'money down the drain' just as surely as rent; and
(2) cash [as opposed to debt] spent on pwoperdee has to be taken out of interest-bearing accounts.

so holding a 100% debt financed house for a year will cost you about 5% times [in your example] £160k in interest, i.e. almost exactly the same [£8k] as your hypothetical

a 100% cash bought house will cost you the interest you would have been getting on the £160k in a savings account, call it, for the sake of the argument, 2% after tax, so £3200 a year.

so, very crudely, a 50% debt, 50% cash house will cost you the average of £8k and £3.2k i.e. £5600 in interest costs on your debt & foregone interest on your deposit. an 80% debt, 20% cash house will cost you £7040 per year, etc.

and, of course, many would-be FTBs currently pay a lot less than eight grand a year on rent because they're in a cheap house share, livign with parents, or whatever.