House prices expected to fall - Official

Emy1501

Really2 wrote: »

So the next positive news will correct it all then. Or we will find out another celeb has contracted a cold and it will all be forgotten. (If they are not really bothered they will not retain it up or down)

We are all saved

But perhaps someone could explain to me why negative forecasts mean the forecasters are right again?

If the government do a U-turn and start to say the country is in better shape than they have been telling us and that they have been exaggerating the cuts plus some positve data on house prices then there will be an affect on confidence especially if the money is around to support the market.

Most forecasters are wrong because public sentiment is too hard to predict. I suspect these 2 reports will be wrong but its what the public make of them epecially those buying and selling which will be relevant

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

So they wont have forgotten the near 18 months of rises then? or when the graph suddenly ticks up? Or is it that it is different when it is negative?

It's amazing how these forecasts have manifested in to falls now.:eek: (when sentiment turns instantly in to falls)

They won't have forgotten them no. They won't have forgotten the boom.

But a volitile market, with ever changing factors in play (change of government, policys, mortgage rates) and a fall in house prices does more damage than a years worth of price rises.

It's like the news. Negative stories will always get more attention than positive ones. So a fall of 5% can do a lot more damage than a rise of 10% to sentiment.

Really2

Emy1501 wrote: »

If the government do a U-turn and start to say the country is in better shape than they have been telling us and that they have been exaggerating the cuts plus some positve data on house prices then there will be an affect on confidence especially if the money is around to support the market.

Most forecasters are wrong because public sentiment is too hard to predict. I suspect these 2 reports will be wrong but its what the public make of them epecially those buying and selling which will be relevant

I agree, good to have some one rational in the debate.:beer:

Mini_Bear

I think house prices will stagnate around the amounts they are now. I don't forsee lots of people getting into difficulties so i don't think there will be a flood of properties on the mkt pushing prices down.
I think it will be a boring few years on HPC website!

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Negative stories will always get more attention than positive ones. So a fall of 5% can do a lot more damage than a rise of 10% to sentiment.

Perhaps that says more about you than reality GD. What happend to the BBC bias?

If people respond to news they respond to any news, you pay more attention to negative news, that is why you think everyone else does.
That is also why you wrote off 2009 as fantasy.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Claiming falls when actually its rises in real terms apparently, says hamish.

No he didn't, you are in a muddle.
He said that it could rise in NOMINAL TERMS while experiencing REAL TERM falls.

To try and explain.

A loaf of bread last year may have cost £1.00.
This year the loaf of bread costs £1.02.
Inflation meanwhile may have been 4%, therefore the loaf of bread should be £1.04.

So in real terms, the loaf of bread is cheaper (£1.02 instead of £1.04)
Nominally however, the loaf of bread is still more expensive that it was last year.

Harry_Powell

And so it all begins again, the perpetual loop that is a Graham "Mr Muddle" Explanation thread. Ho Hum.

Dirk_Rambo

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I have to say that the only person mouthing off, seems to be carolt.

I wonder if she loses her temper this way with her kids? I bet they're always 'walking into cupboard doors' or 'falling down stairs'.

youre not a very nice man harry. and you seem a bit obsessed

paul1964_2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

And so it all begins again, the perpetual loop that is a Graham "Mr Muddle" Explanation thread. Ho Hum.

I don't really know the background to the characters on this thread, but can't you all see that he fully understands terms like "real" and "nominal" and is probably having a bit of a chuckle each time he "presses your buttons".

By the way, anyone who uses unfounded accusations of child abuse as a debating tool is (IMHO) in need of professional help.

chucky

paul1964 wrote: »

I don't really know the background to the characters on this thread, but can't you all see that he fully understands terms like "real" and "nominal" and is probably having a bit of a chuckle each time he "presses your buttons".

wow - i know you were born in 1964 and everything Paul but i can't believe that he got you too. i'm surprised in you.