How many housing bulls left?

Llubrevlis

Just out of interest is it only Hamish left who think house prices will keep going up from here?

Im not an extreme house price bear, but I just dont agree with these house price bulls who still think prices will keep going up from here.

Hamish et al seem to think we could get to average 20x earnings, I just cant see it myself.

chucknorris

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

IMO house prices have/are only being supported by low rates, bank of mum and dad and banks not using their normal criteria to repossess. Where prices go from here depends on your opinion of whether these policies can be sustained indefinitely, my opinion is they can't.

But how can rates go up?

chucknorris

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

My general consensus about IR's is not that they are likely to raise short term, it is medium to long term, which of course as a direct correlation with mortgages as they are based over a long period, especially when any inflation in wages is likely to be very minimal.

If I was to buy with a mortgage today I would factor in a standard variable rate of 8% on a single wage, and if I couldn't afford it I wouldn't buy.

I think 8% is very pesimistic because if we assume that the SVR is about 1.25% above the base rate in normal times. Then if the boe base rate has reached 6.75% it would be reasonable to assume that the economy has been out of the woods for a while and therefore normal wage inflation would have returned. I can't see wages not rising and a base rate of 6.75%. A base rate at this level would IMO indicate a return to a healthy economy. So I do not think it is reasonable to marry up current wages with a svr mortgage rate of 8%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Llubrevlis wrote: »

Just out of interest is it only Hamish left who think house prices will keep going up from here?

Hamish thinks we will see several months of falls this year, and said so in the 2010 predictions thread 6 months ago.

Im not an extreme house price bear,

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Alrighty then....

Hamish et al seem to think we could get to average 20x earnings, I just cant see it myself.

Point me to where I have said that?

Oh that's right, you can't, because you made it up.

Oh, how I miss the rolleyes smiley.....

Blacklight

I'm not sure I've seen anyone say house prices are going to go up any time soon and I don't think anyone expected prices to bounce back as much as they have.

The general feeling seems to be that prices will remain largely flat as they did following the last period of sharp declines back in the 90's, which means a few more months of small falls. Or perhaps small gains and slightly bigger falls depending on supply.

Wages will catch up. The private sector has undergone job cuts, pay cuts, freezes, workers going part time and companies are starting to move again and recruit and pay rises are now back on the cards for next year.

Yes it's the turn of the public sector to undergo these measures now but they'll come through it just as private workers have and in two years wage inflation will return.

House prices will stagnate in nominal terms probably for another three or four years meaning real drops as peoples buying power picks up. If that's what people mean by 30% falls in prices then they may well be right, but there won't be any face value falls in estate agent windows.

Once it's all over they'll be another boom. It's just the way it is.

dgl1001

Im still bullish on the housing marker although i can see falls this year, following which, 2011 will see a strong recovery. It is clear that housing ownership will not be possible for a large proportion of people with a significant increase in renting expected over the next 5 to 10 years - which is not a good thing. Whereas Labour were moving towards a state controlled housing development model, with improved rights for tenents, the Conservatives are moving in the other direct with less regulation and a greater focus on the private sector. Im of the view that the housing market performs like any other market and is determined by supply and demand. I am genuinely impressed with the knowledge the bears have of credit supply/ income rations etc etc, however, there seems to be very little examintion of the supply side of the argument.

botchjob

I’m no bull, just an average homeowner with an above average mortgage, but so long as interest rates remain historically low for the short/mid-term (i.e. the next 2 to 4 years staying below 4-5% base as is widely predicted), I simply don’t see any reason why there would be a proper nationwide housing crash. Unless we see a significant number of forced sellers (by which I mean many many more than the unfortunates who find themselves newly unemployed) the 70% club will have to keep their schadenfreude and bile celebration cocktails on ice.

Mine own guess is that house prices will drop a little further, particularly once interest rates go up a point or two, but that the Brits insatiable appetite for property, combined with low interest rates, will mean there’s no real crash, just a sustained period of correction (or stagnation if you prefer a pejorative term). So long as Brits can afford to buy houses, they WILL buy houses.

macaque_2

This picture below shows one of the last few bulls posing beside a member of the 70% club (dressed in red).

lemonjelly

Llubrevlis wrote: »

Just out of interest is it only Hamish left who think house prices will keep going up from here?

Im not an extreme house price bear, but I just dont agree with these house price bulls who still think prices will keep going up from here.

Hamish et al seem to think we could get to average 20x earnings, I just cant see it myself.

None.

There are people who are bullish in their perspective.

There are people who are bearish in their perspective.

There are no bulls here - keyboards don't suit their hooves.

(Obviously there are fluctuations in the numbers of bullish/bearish posts, & after a recent apparent rise in bullishness, there appears to be a swingometer style drift towards the alternative viewpoint, but I hope you catch my drift...)

The_White_Horse

personally, i think houses are well overvalued. I think the true price of my house should be 50% less than it is (which would put me well into negative equity). However, it will not fall by 50% unless there is total economic meltdown, with wheelbarrows of cash needed to buy bread.

what will happen is prices will stay as they are for the next 5 years or so. they will go up a little, go down a little - maybe even go down quite a bit at first.

the point is, a 300k house now, will be worth around 300k in 5 years time. not 150k or 600k but just 300k.

that is how it was, is, and will be forever more.

TWH has spoken the whinney of truth

Harry_Powell

Shouldn't the OP's question be 'are there any people who are bullish about the housing market over the next xxx months/years?'

No one is a permanent bear or bull about a single market, people's opinions on a particular market change from one period to the next depending on the state of the market. It never ceases to amaze me how erroneously used the terms Bull and Bear are in here, it shows a complete lack of understanding intelligence and I wish all sides would just stop it!

For the record, I'm bearish in the short term, and think that the housing market has run out of steam and will have small drops intersperced with stagnation, in many ways mirroring what is currently happening with the FTSE. I'm bullish in the long term because when the economy picks up and the UK Sovereign debt is paid down, renewed confidence will once again lift the housing market.

The UK populace has not lost it's love affair with property, it's just sulking because it's been slighted. In a couple of years the passion with be renewed. Even the most 'bearish' on here are here obsessing day in and day out about house prices - clearly then the love affair is still on-going or they would not be so obsessed with houses.

The bears on here are part of the problem, if they stopped going on and on about wanting to buy a home, then interest in property would flag and house prices would fall. I blame the whole bear gang for the HPI that we suffered from over the last 10 years. You're all to blame for this, you damned bears! :mad: