Spot the suckers rally.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

useless wrote: »

everyone is so angry!

There's a lot to be angry about.

This is a board where people come to engage in honest debate about the facts.

There should be no place on it for childish liars like Carol, Brit and Macaque, who have so few facts on their side they have to lie, distort, and create fiction to spread their pathetic propaganda.

System

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There's a lot to be angry about.

This is a board where people come to engage in honest debate about the facts.

There should be no place on it for childish liars like Carol, Brit and Macaque, who have so few facts on their side they have to lie, distort, and create fiction to spread their pathetic propaganda.

I imagine this is what it would be like if we had to share a forum with Joseph Goebbels and his clones.

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There should be no place on it for childish liars like Carol, Brit and Macaque, who have so few facts on their side they have to lie, distort, and create fiction to spread their pathetic propaganda.

Liar is a strong word Hamish. Did you mean to use it? Perhaps you can point out one of my 'lies'?

sabretoothtigger

useless wrote: »

everyone is so angry!

:mad::mad::mad::mad:

Generali wrote: »

The thing is, there isn't anything other than supply and demand in a free(ish) market.

An example of what can happen when Governments interfere in markets.

There is limited supply due to sellers preference but we've not seen so much forced liquidation due to government measures.

Maybe this is the factor bears ignore too much or maybe its the future factor bulls neglect
ie. houses will be sold below the mortgage value and bankruptcy will rise

That would be the second leg to falls. I dont think it'll occur as currency will be weaker then assets so housing/mortgage debt will benefit from devaluation in worth and liability


Commercial real estate should have been much more vulnerable as companys are more leveraged then private individuals, and less supported in their costs where a business declines



Lehman creditors are complaining two years after that they did not receive fair value. So long as their assets were sold openly available to anyone they have no case. Fact is they were forced sellers so of course the price was bad.

If we have anything like that in uk housing it will quickly saturate the weak demand for housing and prices will fall dramatically I imagine, however Im not expecting forced sales and neither is the market I guess so prices will slowly appreciate nominally

GDB2222

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Lehman creditors are complaining two years after that they did not receive fair value. So long as their assets were sold openly available to anyone they have no case. Fact is they were forced sellers so of course the price was bad.

If we have anything like that in uk housing it will quickly saturate the weak demand for housing and prices will fall dramatically I imagine, however Im not expecting forced sales and neither is the market I guess so prices will slowly appreciate nominally

I don't want to get side-tracked by Lehman, but weren't their assets pretty much liquidated overnight? The standard definition of market value used by surveyors includes terms like "given a reasonable period for marketing" "between a willing buyer and seller" and so on. As I said, let's not get side-tracked, but Lehman is not really a great example of the term open market value as most people understand it.

On the other point you made, there are always a fair number of sales each year due to deaths (600,000 deaths a year in this country), disability/sickness, and redundancy. 600k deaths => around 200k properties on the market, which is around 20% of current sales. At the moment, most people who suffer disability etc are helped by state benefits to remain in their homes, but that may change with the change in government. You can see that a change roughly along the lines of the change in LHA might appeal to the present government.

Markets are not expecting a big hike in interest rates, looking at the bank of england yield curve, so that factor is different from the 90's.