Shall I buy or pull out..

When_is_the_reset?

Risks are to the downside but if you can afford one, buy one and then follow these instructions: -

1) Do not enter into any conversations with anyone about property prices.
2) If anyone starts talking to you about house prices, put your fingers in your ears and say 'la la la. not listening'.
3) Do not look at any websites that have houses for sale - ever.
4) Do not read any newspapers especially the Mail or the Express.
5) Do not log onto this website or hpc.co.uk
6) Enjoy your home knowing that you can afford it and you have given your family a safe place to live.

FTBFun

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

4) Do not read any newspapers especially the Mail or the Express.

To be fair, you could file this one under "general advice".

Pete111

brit1234 wrote: »

Lets get a few things straight. I correctly called the first part of the crash despite bulls laughing and saying prices would only go up.

The rest of the crash was delayed when government bought the banks mortgage debt, crashed interest rates to 0.5% and funded developers. (not expected)

This was not the end of the crash it was just put on pause.Now I called the resumption of the crash last month, lets see you continue to mock and then find you were completly wrong.

• End of 2010-2012 UK banks have to start paying off Government loans and will have less money to loan.
• New government loans to banks aren't going to happen.
• Schemes such as homebuy and others are having funding withdrawn. The government has a huge black hole for housing funding and schemes are being scrapped despite widespread Housing Federation lobbying.
• Inflation figures are putting preasure for interest rate rises with BOE pannel members now starting to vote for interest rate rises.
• Unemployment in both public and private sector is expected to go up and push past 3 million.
• Taxes are going up, VAT 20% and others
• Public Sector wages are being frozen for 2 years.
• The US housing market is crashing again putting greater heat on US banks and government.
• European banks are now failing and EU countries are likely to go bankrupt.

Now if anyone wants to call me extreme so be it. However house prices are well overvalued and there is simply not the money or economic stability to hold these values.

We shall see.

But I would like to point out that according to Nationwide, last month prices rose* (again)

Also I'm not really mocking you, just pointing out that you are towards the extreme end of the bears on here. Given the OP is seeking a balanced view and you present your guesses (educated or not) as fact you were not really providing this...

*slightly - but a rise is a rise!

Henry_P_Chester

Bullfighter wrote: »

House prices aside, in an environment where your house is unlikely to appreciate massively in the short term (5yrs) , you need to consider your ability to service the considrable debt in a wide range of economic scenarios.


What if rates are 8% when your fix ends?

What if the government spending cuts impact your income?

What if your family expands?

In the boom years you could just sell and realise fabulous profits, those days are gone so your options to deal with the above scenarios combined with the fact that if nothing else we are in an unprecedented macro economic situation could male taking on a huge debt very risky

That said, I believe we will see a return to prices in 1999/2000

I think this is the best post so far.

As long as you will be happy living there long term and can always keep up your repayments who cares about prices? In fact if you buy now and they go up it means your next step up the ladder will be more expensive, if they go down it will be a cheaper step up but you could be stuck where you are in negative equity.



It's my opinion that prices will fall over the next few years but you have to look at the facts and make up your own mind.

brit1234

Pete111 wrote: »

We shall see.

But I would like to point out that according to Nationwide, last month prices rose* (again)

*slightly - but a rise is a rise!

Lets have a look at the 4 main house price surveys then over the last 3-4 months. Can you see the trend? The clue is it is not up.

Nationwide
Mar + 1.0%
Apr + 1.1%
May + 0.5%
Jun + 0.1%
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/jun_2010.pdf

Halifax
Mar + 1.0%
Apr - 0.1%
May - 0.4%

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2010/HousePriceIndexMay2010.pdf

Land Registry
Mar - 0.3%
Apr +0.2%
May - 0.2%

Acadametrics
Mar - 0.5%
Apr - 0.7%
May - 0.2%
http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/acadHousePrices.php


Lets see what the rest of Junes figures bring in the coming days.

sonastin

brit1234 wrote: »

Lets have a look at the 4 main house price surveys then over the last 3-4 months. Can you see the trend? The clue is it is not up.

Second clue - not plummeting down at great speed either.


hmmmm :think:

brit1234

sonastin wrote: »

Second clue - not plummeting down at great speed either.


hmmmm :think:

No but it clearly looks like a transition point to me like the earlier part of this crash in 2007 and previous crashes. The speed will pick up but that will take a fair few months.

sonastin

brit1234 wrote: »

• End of 2010-2012 UK banks have to start paying off Government loans and will have less money to loan.
• New government loans to banks aren't going to happen.
• Schemes such as homebuy and others are having funding withdrawn. The government has a huge black hole for housing funding and schemes are being scrapped despite widespread Housing Federation lobbying.
• Inflation figures are putting preasure for interest rate rises with BOE pannel members now starting to vote for interest rate rises.
• Unemployment in both public and private sector is expected to go up and push past 3 million.
• Taxes are going up, VAT 20% and others
• Public Sector wages are being frozen for 2 years.
• The US housing market is crashing again putting greater heat on US banks and government.
• European banks are now failing and EU countries are likely to go bankrupt.

There have been lists like this in one form or another for years. I just don't see it as a transition yet.

I think that perhaps if unemployment does kick in, owners might end up in the position of being forced to sell or face repossession quicker and that will put some real downward pressure on prices but the other parts affecting sellers could be dealt with by some serious belt tightening and a wait-it-out attitude. A reduction in the number of buyers out there isn't enough to cause a crash unless seller have to sell.

My money is on stagnant, status quo, slow decline at best...

nollag2006

Poor old brit ! You really are now the sharpest knive in the drawer, are you?

You never have yet apologised (or even explained) for your prediction of the elusive 50% price drop by Christmas 2009. How did that work out for you?

Davesnave

nollag2006 wrote: »

Poor old brit ! You really are now the sharpest knive in the drawer, are you?

This is the standard of discussion which has made 'Debate House Prices and the Economy' such a popular part of MSE.

Incidentally, why isn't this thread over there?

Oh yes, of course.....real life!