Nationwide - House Prices Edge up

Spiv_2

House prices rose again in June but only by 0.1%, according to the Nationwide building society.
The rise follows a 0.5% increase in May, with the average property in the UK now costing more than £170,000.
Prices have risen by 3% since the start of the year, the Nationwide's house price index showed.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/jun_2010.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10456548.stm

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Nationwide calling it for stagnation.

“Looking beyond the short-term, the spending cuts
and tax increases in the Budget will clearly put a
squeeze on household disposable incomes, which are
undoubtedly an important driver of house prices.
Given the already elevated level of the house price to
earnings ratio, this limits the scope for property
values to maintain the very strong upward
momentum that we have seen over the last year.
However, the acceleration of the fiscal consolidation
means that interest rates are likely to be lower than
they otherwise would have been, which should
provide some offsetting support to households and
mortgage affordability. To the extent that an
improvement in the public finances raises confidence
in interest rate stability, it could even attract more
buyers into the housing market over time.
“Provided the economy does not suffer a relapse into
recession, the net impact of the Budget on the
housing market and house prices should be relatively
neutral. This is consistent with the relative stability
seen in the housing market during the last major
fiscal consolidation in the mid-1990s.”

Blacklight

“Provided the economy does not suffer a relapse into
recession, the net impact of the Budget on the
housing market and house prices should be relatively
neutral. This is consistent with the relative stability
seen in the housing market during the last major
fiscal consolidation in the mid-1990s.”

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the future now. Except that I don't think two quarters of minor negative growth will really have that much of an impact. People are moving on, taking on staff and building up their businesses again. They need to move on now and someone telling them GDP is -0.1% isn't going to prevent that.

The crash was the back end of 2008 and early 2009. Despite whatever front they want to present I also think almost everyone is agreed there isn't going to be a 50% reduction in property prices across the UK in the near future.

System

"This is consistent with the relative stability
seen in the housing market during the last major
fiscal consolidation in the mid-1990s.” "

And we all know what happened after that

Blacklight

Joeskeppi wrote: »

And we all know what happened after that

History would indicate another cycle of double digit rises peaking at 30% year on year once wages catch up a bit. I don't see it happening for a while but I'm certain it will in the latter half of the decade.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Blacklight wrote: »

History would indicate another cycle of double digit rises peaking at 30% year on year once wages catch up a bit. I don't see it happening for a while but I'm certain it will in the latter half of the decade.

Indeed.

Whether prices now rise a bit, fall a bit, or stagnate for a while, the only thing that is certain is people will look back on these prices 10 or 15 years from now and think...... "Bargain!!!!"

Batchy

I seriously think the time is now to bag a bargain... spoilt for choice, and good cheap mortgage deals!... Can't go wrong! (well it can of course, but, you have to live a little)

chucky

Batchy wrote: »

I seriously think the time is now to bag a bargain... spoilt for choice, and good cheap mortgage deals!... Can't go wrong! (well it can of course, but, you have to live a little)

no i disagree - the first part of last year was that time, now isn't a bad time to buy either though.

i always think that it is never a bad time to buy but there are always better times

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nationwide calling it for stagnation.

i don't think it's that straightforward.

sentiment and the forward market is led by current viewings or new buyer enquiries vs sales instructions - currently the rate of supply is higher than the rate of demand. take a look at Chart 1 on the Nationwide report.

this is definetly something to watch out for - no where near crash material but it could develop into price drops in the future

HPC ghetto and 'Bears' please feel free to thanks me for doing work for the cult.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And that 0.1% increase was still £1000 in actual NSA prices.

DaddyBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nationwide calling it for stagnation.

:beer::beer::beer::beer:

Strong growth in the South West which provides a bigger cushion for the small falls we'll get this winter.