First-time Buyer fear - Will house prices crash??

Dan29

meanmachine wrote:

The fact is, all the homeowners on this thread desperately need flesh blood, otherwise the shark stops swimming, sinks and dies.

Homeowners, desperate to protect their unearned equity, aren't going to say anything to discourage people from buying are they?

Erm I think you'll find I did.

richgirl

richgirl

richgirl

MascaraMinx

Thanks for that Rich Girl - bit of perspective there for me!

Tassotti

Probably why property is seen as a long-term investment.

mystic_trev

Notice the "top" It's what (we in the trade) call a classic "head and shoulder pattern" I wonder what happens next? Google to find out!

meanmachine_2

Yes, but we've never head that triple peak before, so in those terms it is different to last time.

All i know is that, in the next 3-6 months prices WILL keep rising - lending is too strong for it not to. That combined with a lack of supply (moving is getting too expensive, people are extending instead) means prices will increase.

In my opinion that just makes them even more vulnerable to some kind of economic shock. But until that comes along things can keep bubbling along, as outlined in that graph.

dougk_2

What it also shows is even if the price of a house drops within afew (10?) years the price has recovered and within a few more years doubled so as a home (regardless of whether you move on or not) over the period of an average mortgage WILL have increased in value substantially.

mystic_trev

dougk wrote:

What it also shows is even if the price of a house drops within afew (10?) years the price has recovered and within a few more years doubled so as a home (regardless of whether you move on or not) over the period of an average mortgage WILL have increased in value substantially.

This would be correct if we still lived with high inflation coupled with high wage inflation. Thanks to Gordons miracle economy, we don't have to worry about that anymore. If FTB's can't afford a home now how are they likely to afford one at twice the price in ten years time? Perhaps they'll all win the lottery!