Savill's predict house prices to fall by up to 7% by end of 2010

carolt

"Savills, the estate agency, whose research team has been strikingly accurate over the past three years, has revised its forecast for the mainstream housing market for the rest of 2010. Instead of small rises, it now predicts falls – between 2.8% and 4.1% in southern England and London, about 5% in the Midlands and 7% in parts of northern England. Of the homes it sells – typically between £250,000 and £4m – about 15% are bought by public sector staff."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/jun/14/house-sales-fall-public-sector

the_flying_pig

My word, lots of conflicting predictions around today.

It must be hard for the VIs [moneylenders, EAs] to know where to turn really.

There's an incentive to churn out bearish forecasts from the perspective of lobbying for subsidee/low interest rates/whatever.

There's an incentive to churn out bullish forecasts as a kind of siren's call to tempt buyers into the market.

Maybe best to publish both, depending on the target audience, and hope no-one notices?

purch

How can anyone take the views of a bloke who wears pink tracksuits, loads of bling and smokes cigars seriously ???

Hows about that then boys and girls :eek:

twadge_face

carolt wrote: »

"Savills, the estate agency, whose research team has been strikingly accurate over the past three years, has revised its forecast for the mainstream housing market for the rest of 2010. Instead of small rises, it now predicts falls – between 2.8% and 4.1% in southern England and London, about 5% in the Midlands and 7% in parts of northern England. Of the homes it sells – typically between £250,000 and £4m – about 15% are bought by public sector staff."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/jun/14/house-sales-fall-public-sector

Guardian seems to be taking on a more bearish stance these days. Must be aiming for the opposite demographic to Express.

Guardian is just a teensy bit more credible than Express though... Bit less desperate too.

Guardian does typically like to support the underdog as it lends support their generally left-wind ideology.

Forgive the sweeping generalisations, but there is an observation to be made here... :-)

Presuming on this site that those aged early thirties and under and are priced out, they would be the bears, and the ones hoping for a toe on "the ladder" (ahem), perhaps they are the more typical Guardian reader.

Makes sense as the Guardian is a highbrow read (irrespecitive of politics), and the demographic of folk outlined above are much more likely to be better educated (and of course highly indebted for said education). They would like to buy a roof over their heads but are priced out due to a decade of unprecedented high house price inflation. These would be the bears, then, cheerleading the idea of a crash or a correction (I prefer the latter term as it is far less emotive and thus less manipulative), simply to have the same chances in life that were afforded to their parents.

Whereas on the other side of the coin, you have the Express readers, who are older, less educated but much better off, through the fortune (only fortune no less; pure luck) of unmitigated house price inflation and thus high equity in property and/or a lot of equity available to withdraw from their property to spend and/or reinvest. These people are bulls cheerlead house price rises for ever and ever amen, ignorant or simply not giving a !!!!!! about the next generation. Proper "I'm alright Jack" mentality. Some of them love boasting about it and have scant regard or acknowledgement for the particular situation that any "bear" might be in.

Just an observation. Highly simplified (for the Express readers on this site, lol). These are clear lines and I do know for a fact that there are exceptions on both sides.

However, when the revolution comes, I fear the uprising will be against the Express readers. And I doubt it will be bloodless.



On the flipside, of course, the correction (phase 2) might just be starting to commence right now. Emergency budget is just days away. Interest rates going up in just a few months. Mortgage availability is biased towards lower lending which, thus, can only support lower prices... all the indicators are pointing down, down, down.

On a sidenote I liked today's Daily Mail headline: "UNFAIR AND UNAFFORDABLE"... apparently it was what Nick Clegg said about public sector pensions but it could have sooooo easily been about property prices. For a second I really thought it was!

Pete111

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Forgive the sweeping generalisations, but there is an observation to be made here... :-)

Presuming on this site that those aged early thirties and under and are priced out, they would be the bears, and the ones hoping for a toe on "the ladder" (ahem), perhaps they are the more typical Guardian reader.


Just to back up your sweeping generalisations comment. I'm 32 and have owned 2 properties in London / the South East for 3 years. (and one property for 6)

I also read the Times...

twadge_face

Pete111 wrote: »

Just to back up your sweeping generalisations comment. I'm 32 and have owned 2 properties in London / the South East for 3 years. (and one property for 6)

I also read the Times...

Perhaps you should read past the bits you just want to read(!), but I did acknowledge the sweeping generalisations and said that I knew exceptions on both sides of the coin. I know people in their late twenties who have been on an epic BTL mission (in particular, a couple of guys with a dozen properties - and they can't sleep at night, wonder why??).

Also, the Times? Sometimes I don't know which is worse on the property ramping, the Express or the Times, but then I remember the horror that is Satanic ramping princess Anne Ashworth in the Times... and the fact that people can usually discern the Express as being a comic!

So that would make the Times worse as it has a veneer of respectability. But, whereas the Guardian is aimed at the underdogs, the Times champions the well-to-do and up-and-coming but only in a very mainstream fashion, hence it hasn't got as far as printing very many negative articles on property. Yet. Wait and see.

Changing the view of the Times' editorial team would be like the last bull turning bear!

Still generalising of course.

twadge_face

carolt wrote: »

"Savills, the estate agency, whose research team has been strikingly accurate over the past three years, has revised its forecast for the mainstream housing market for the rest of 2010. Instead of small rises, it now predicts falls – between 2.8% and 4.1% in southern England and London, about 5% in the Midlands and 7% in parts of northern England. Of the homes it sells – typically between £250,000 and £4m – about 15% are bought by public sector staff."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/jun/14/house-sales-fall-public-sector

Aren't Savills one of the more respected predictors of property direction?

The_White_Horse

public sector scum increasing house prices with their massive salaries. disgusting.

carolt

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Aren't Savills one of the more respected predictors of property direction?

Yes, acc to the article and others.

They were predicting 25% falls in 2008 - got it more or less exactly spot on.

carolt

Thought I'd bump this thread just for effect.

Nice to keep an even balance at the top of the front page, isn't it Hamish?

Really2

They predicted 6.6% down on average for the year (predicted end of 2009) for the whole of the UK.

This would indicate they are now thinking around -4.75% on average (on top end properties.)

How come they are suddenly accurate? did they predict rises last year?;)