Savill's predict house prices to fall by up to 7% by end of 2010

Generali

purch wrote: »

How can anyone take the views of a bloke who wears pink tracksuits, loads of bling and smokes cigars seriously ???

Hows about that then boys and girls :eek:

carolt smokes cigars? What brand? I think we should be told.

Cigars are all I smoke these days and that not for a long time. Cohibas for me - Fidel's brand.

Pete111

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Perhaps you should read past the bits you just want to read(!), but I did acknowledge the sweeping generalisations and said that I knew exceptions on both sides of the coin. I know people in their late twenties who have been on an epic BTL mission (in particular, a couple of guys with a dozen properties - and they can't sleep at night, wonder why??).

Also, the Times? Sometimes I don't know which is worse on the property ramping, the Express or the Times, but then I remember the horror that is Satanic ramping princess Anne Ashworth in the Times... and the fact that people can usually discern the Express as being a comic!

So that would make the Times worse as it has a veneer of respectability. But, whereas the Guardian is aimed at the underdogs, the Times champions the well-to-do and up-and-coming but only in a very mainstream fashion, hence it hasn't got as far as printing very many negative articles on property. Yet. Wait and see.

Changing the view of the Times' editorial team would be like the last bull turning bear!

Still generalising of course.

I read the whole thing

I just replied to the bits I wanted to reply to!



P
PS I think I was more concerned about being labelled a Guardian reader than having my property owning credentials downplayed...

twadge_face

Pete111 wrote: »

I read the whole thing

I just replied to the bits I wanted to reply to!



PS I think I was more concerned about being labelled a Guardian reader than having my property owning credentials downplayed...

Ah, OK. You're not so bad then. Just don't be surprised when the Times acts all surprised when the so-called recovery fails to be locked in...

If you're a bit of a righty you'd be better off with the Telegraph. Bit more honest about money, as the truly wealthy read that paper and I find the business section correspondingly more useful.

twadge_face

carolt wrote: »

Yes, acc to the article and others.

They were predicting 25% falls in 2008 - got it more or less exactly spot on.

Sweet as a nut. Let's hope they're underestimating it this time.

How many saw double-digit drops in 2009 that failed to materialised due to QE and ZIRP? Such insanity, but quite a few.

Cessation of QE and ZIRP surely leads to the reversal of this quirky little uptick.

Really2

Not quiet accurate description of their forecast carol. They said 25% in total (-10% 2008 & -15% 2009).

http://www.savills.co.uk/news.aspx?category=residential&id=9551&page=0

Worst CASE.:)

A worst case forecast would predict a 10% fall in mainstream market values in 2008 and a further 15% in 2009 if general consumer confidence continues to weaken and the economic impact of the current credit squeeze is more widely felt.

I will put their predictions in the bin with the others then.:D

Pete111

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Ah, OK. You're not so bad then. Just don't be surprised when the Times acts all surprised when the so-called recovery fails to be locked in...

If you're a bit of a righty you'd be better off with the Telegraph. Bit more honest about money, as the truly wealthy read that paper and I find the business section correspondingly more useful.

...I quite like the Torygraph.

However I refuse to buy a paper that requires that you first master origami in order to read it successfully on a busy train.

twadge_face

Pete111 wrote: »

...I quite like the Torygraph.

However I refuse to buy a paper that requires that you first master origami in order to read it successfully on a busy train.

Ha. You're not quite sitting on the right part of the train to read a proper broadsheet then... not a WORTHY Telegraph reader.

Perhaps if you'd put your money into something other than property you could be addressing that shortfall right now.

[clarification: I refer, of course, to first class seating]

All investment is a risk, of course...

Pete111

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Ha. You're not quite sitting on the right part of the train to read a proper broadsheet then... not a WORTHY Telegraph reader.

Perhaps if you'd put your money into something other than property you could be addressing that shortfall right now.

[clarification: I refer, of course, to first class seating]

All investment is a risk, of course...

Shortfall - love it!

I would hazard I am fortunate enough (financially speaking) to just about squeak into the Telegraph reading bracket should I choose to do so. :cool:

(First class is a waste on my route TBH - exactly the same seats/tables and I always get a seat anyway. The Torygraph is still too plain big...)

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Yes, acc to the article and others.

They were predicting 25% falls in 2008 - got it more or less exactly spot on.

I predicted 22% (can post the links again if needed), does that mean I have better accuracy in the predictions.

On that note and in line with the OP, isn't this what many of us have accepted. that house prices have been rising and will follow with some falls, then they will rise again.

It's called being in a period of stagnation.
If prices didn't fall, you wouldn't have that stagnant effect given the rises seen so far.

It really is no real new news here, just focussing on one predicted part of the year and ignoring the factual part that has passed.

I just wish people opened their eyes and expressed their views on a vorader spectrum, rather than trying to focus all their attention to the side of the fence they prefer to sit on.

StevieJ

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Whereas on the other side of the coin, you have the Express readers, who are older, less educated but much better off, through the fortune (only fortune no less; pure luck) of unmitigated house price inflation and thus high equity in property and/or a lot of equity available to withdraw from their property to spend and/or reinvest. These people are bulls cheerlead house price rises for ever and ever amen, ignorant or simply not giving a !!!!!! about the next generation. Proper "I'm alright Jack" mentality. Some of them love boasting about it and have scant regard or acknowledgement for the particular situation that any "bear" might be in.

!

Maybe, just maybe, they are not ignorant of the next generation but note that the current (and previous) situation is not a lot different from when they indeed had to struggle to raise a deposit and take out a mortgage, maybe they view a minority of the the younger generation (the ones that post on here and HPC) as Walter Mitty types and some of the fellow older generation (STR) as get rich (poor) quick dreamers