2nd leg of Housing Market Crash begins

Generali

The data are the data and if by the measure that Acadametrics use the average price of a house in the UK is falling then so be it. It's worth bearing in mind that Acadametrics have a financial interest in house prices rising:


This contains details of their methodology. According to the people they use to check their figures, theirs are the most accurate of the lot with a 'mean squared error' of about 1%, that is to say that their average divergence of their estimate to the actual average house price when squared is 1%. Rightmove they estimate to be 8% out, with Haliwide 10-14% out. Basically it's the same as LR figures with some smoothing and seasonal adjustment.

Certainly, I see no reason why this should be less accurate than Haliwide.

carolt

Generali wrote: »

The data are the data and if by the measure that Acadametrics use the average price of a house in the UK is falling then so be it. It's worth bearing in mind that Acadametrics have a financial interest in house prices rising:

Which is interesting - if even the vested interests are reporting a 3 month trend of falls...

Generali

carolt wrote: »

Which is interesting - if even the vested interests are reporting a 3 month trend of falls...

To be fair, they sell data and analysis so their main financial interest is in accuracy. From their home page:

AcadHPI is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales and is designed to provide a “true measure of house price inflation”. AcadHPI has been chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for their proposed residential house price derivative which we expect will be launched once the current falls in house prices can be seen nearing an end.

sabretoothtigger

Only the 2nd? I think this crash has more legs then an octopus

chucky

Generali wrote: »

The data are the data and if by the measure that Acadametrics use the average price of a house in the UK is falling then so be it. It's worth bearing in mind that Acadametrics have a financial interest in house prices rising:


This contains details of their methodology. According to the people they use to check their figures, theirs are the most accurate of the lot with a 'mean squared error' of about 1%, that is to say that their average divergence of their estimate to the actual average house price when squared is 1%. Rightmove they estimate to be 8% out, with Haliwide 10-14% out. Basically it's the same as LR figures with some smoothing and seasonal adjustment.

Certainly, I see no reason why this should be less accurate than Haliwide.

all the indexes show the same trend so these people's report shouldn't be less or more disbelieved than any other index.

for this index three months of falls still leaves the index positive since January and maybe even February (can't be bothered to check it).

carolt

So how low do you think prices will fall chucky? In % terms?