To save us all repeating the same stuff over and over - a nice little summary...

Blacklight

carolt wrote: »

Too many things wrong with your post to know where to begin really.

Our family income is far higher than the average and we can afford to buy right now - but aren't, as for non-financial reasons it's a bad time for us to buy right now, and I don't see any rises in property prices over the next couple of years; think falls are more likely.

I don't think people should only pay 20% of their income towards a house; I pay more than that in rent now, so obviously would be happy to pay that in mortgage too.

No idea on what you base your bizarre figures.

So we're agreed 3x income is an incorrect starting point and prices aren't out of sync with current incomes.

Glad we cleared that up. Thanks.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I personally was 15.

So thats my reason

Good Lord. You were 15 for 4 years!?

I'd see a Doctor or perhaps a Philosopher.

Thrugelmir

Blacklight wrote: »

Over complicated as usual. Fundamentally missing some very simple points:

Stagnation in the 90's (1990-2000) house prices were about 5-10% different at the end of the decade compared to the start. Then they rose quite fast to normal levels and some narrow minded and clueless people started to complain they were too expensive by 2005/6.

They weren't, they'd just normalised to pick up the stagnation throughout the last decade.

Now that they have reached normal levels again these people still expect them to fall back by 50% in the next 7 months (HPC forecast).

Demand above all else will ensure that drops of 50% (back to 1990 prices) will not happen no matter how much you theroise about interest rates, credit supply, stock market falls or any amount of black weekdays.

If they fell back to prices of 10 years ago, I'd buy as many properties as I could and so would you, so would they, so would everyone. Falls to 20 years ago are out of the question.

I think your diagnosis is overly complicated. Fundamentals of the (excess) market drivers between 1995 -2007 are well documented and easily understandable. The future if anything is uncertain as the excesses have yet to be unwound.

nembot

Blacklight wrote: »

I was thinking something along the same lines as I was collating the info for my previous post. Why was there a long period of stagnation during the 90's?

Was it driven by economic factors or was it just a change in the state of mind back then? You could have one if you wanted one, therefore it wasn't an issue. Apathy? Indifference to being homeowner?

Is it an issue now because people can't get what they want?

There wasn't a period of stagnation in the 90's we experienced a house price crash, defined technically by drops of 1% per month over a 6 month period.

Prices started dropping late 89 until 92, then some slight rises and further drops until around 96 at which point it stabilised.

The rises from 2001 onwards were artificially induced, they weren't normal in any sense of the word. Which is one of the reasons why debt is greater than it's ever been, more people are having trouble with mortgage payments, lenders got very greedy and lent money to people without sufficient due diligence.

I think the issue here is, you don't want houses to be realistically priced - for whatever reason, I have no idea but you're certainly not alone.

purch

Good Lord. You were 15 for 4 years!?

I knew an explanation would come to light if we waited long enough :T

Stay in year 10 for 4 years, and at the end you get a degree in Devonomics from Ilfracombe Institute of Technology :eek:

carolt

Blacklight wrote: »

So we're agreed 3x income is an incorrect starting point and prices aren't out of sync with current incomes.

Glad we cleared that up. Thanks.

Eh?

No idea where you got the 3 X income from, from my post...

I'd probably say about 3.5 x was right.

Prices are extremely out of sync with current incomes - we can only afford to buy because our incomes are ell above average,

For people on average incomes, even v basic properties are unaffordable.

Graham_Devon

purch wrote: »

I knew an explanation would come to light if we waited long enough :T

Stay in year 10 for 4 years, and at the end you get a degree in Devonomics from Ilfracombe Institute of Technology :eek:

Amazing how much satisfaction you guys have got from something so simple

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Amazing how much satisfaction you guys have got from some[STRIKE]thing[/STRIKE]one so simple

Sorry GD you left the goal open and I had to shoot.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry GD you left the goal open and I had to shoot.

_pale_

Wheres Lemon, I need support