To save us all repeating the same stuff over and over - a nice little summary...

carolt

...of why house prices will definitely fall (bear position) or definitely rise (bull position):

http://www.lovemoney.com/news/make-good-property-decisions/house-prices/the-future-of-house-prices-4954.aspx?source=1000449

bryanb

I like "Should I buy or carry on ranting?"

Blacklight

Over complicated as usual. Fundamentally missing some very simple points:

Stagnation in the 90's (1990-2000) house prices were about 5-10% different at the end of the decade compared to the start. Then they rose quite fast to normal levels and some narrow minded and clueless people started to complain they were too expensive by 2005/6.

They weren't, they'd just normalised to pick up the stagnation throughout the last decade.

Now that they have reached normal levels again these people still expect them to fall back by 50% in the next 7 months (HPC forecast).

Demand above all else will ensure that drops of 50% (back to 1990 prices) will not happen no matter how much you theroise about interest rates, credit supply, stock market falls or any amount of black weekdays.

If they fell back to prices of 10 years ago, I'd buy as many properties as I could and so would you, so would they, so would everyone. Falls to 20 years ago are out of the question.

carolt

Blacklight wrote: »

Over complicated as usual. Fundamentally missing some very simple points:

Stagnation in the 90's (1990-2000) house prices were about 5-10% different at the end of the decade compared to the start. Then they rose quite fast to normal levels and some narrow minded and clueless people started to complain they were too expensive by 2005/6.

They weren't, they'd just normalised to pick up the stagnation throughout the last decade.

Now that they have reached normal levels again these people still expect them to fall back by 50% in the next 7 months (HPC forecast).

Demand above all else will ensure that drops of 50% (back to 1990 prices) will not happen no matter how much you theroise about interest rates, credit supply, stock market falls or any amount of black weekdays.

If they fell back to prices of 10 years ago, I'd buy as many properties as I could and so would you, so would they, so would everyone. Falls to 20 years ago are out of the question.

Not 'normal levels' - a very long way off 'normal' relative to incomes.

The reason your point isn't covered in a pretty comprehensive article is because it's...wrong.

StevieJ

Blacklight wrote: »

If they fell back to prices of 10 years ago, I'd buy as many properties as I could and so would you, so would they, so would everyone. Falls to 20 years ago are out of the question.

So why didn't everyone buy in 95-98 when they were very cheap relative to wages?

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

So why didn't everyone buy in 95-98 when they were very cheap relative to wages?

Well I personally was 15.

So thats my reason

Blacklight

StevieJ wrote: »

So why didn't everyone buy in 95-98 when they were very cheap relative to wages?

I was thinking something along the same lines as I was collating the info for my previous post. Why was there a long period of stagnation during the 90's?

Was it driven by economic factors or was it just a change in the state of mind back then? You could have one if you wanted one, therefore it wasn't an issue. Apathy? Indifference to being homeowner?

Is it an issue now because people can't get what they want?

chucknorris

StevieJ wrote: »

So why didn't everyone buy in 95-98 when they were very cheap relative to wages?

Personally I didnt because I bought 5 properties in the early 90's, had a very challenging career and was also running another part time business, there just wasn't enough hours in the day to take any more on.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I personally was 15.

So thats my reason

What for four years? ah you were born in a leap year

Blacklight

carolt wrote: »

Not 'normal levels' - a very long way off 'normal' relative to incomes.

The reason your point isn't covered in a pretty comprehensive article is because it's...wrong.

Really?

I don't know what you earn but lets say £26k. Percentages will be roughly the same whatever the figure.

You think that prices should be 3x your single income?

That's £78k.

With a 10% deposit over 25 years that's a massive:

£373 a month!

If you're only prepared to pay 20% of your nett income towards your mortgage then you'll get something worth £78k... depends where you live but it's probably not going to be great. Acceptable, but not great.

People in the real world understand that property is worth much more than 20% of their income and are therefore prepared to pay a bit more for a nicer place.

That's 'normal' carol. That's what normal people think.

carolt

Too many things wrong with your post to know where to begin really.

Our family income is far higher than the average and we can afford to buy right now - but aren't, as for non-financial reasons it's a bad time for us to buy right now, and I don't see any rises in property prices over the next couple of years; think falls are more likely.

I don't think people should only pay 20% of their income towards a house; I pay more than that in rent now, so obviously would be happy to pay that in mortgage too.

No idea on what you base your bizarre figures.