Please help MSE test revamped tool: Premium Bond Probability Calculator

JamesU

MSE_Martin wrote: »

To be honest I think the reason it is depressing is because those are the results, not because of how we portray it - the truth is on 50% or more of people will win nothing over a year in your situation.

Martin, your descriptions of the returns associated with index linked certificates on the website are confusing a large number of people on MSE. Given the importance of the product, is it not possible to remove these ambiguities?

When people are investing thousands of pounds in index linked certificates in the belief they will receive 6.3%, 7.9% tax free etc in a years time, do you not think this is far more depressing than a flutter on premium bonds?

An example of many explanations OPs are having to give right now:

And just remember that when you read that %RPI or returns on ILCs are XX% (5.3%, 6.3%, 7.9% or any other figure), they are all wrong and should be ignored. Why? they always refer to the last 12 months inflation, and are not the return you will receive in the next 12 months. Simple.


It is such a pity that this excellent website is inadvertently misleading so many people who are less familiar with how index linked certificates work.


JamesU

Milarky

If it is only using the current rate of interest and then backtracking for up to 10 years the results may be inaccurate (because rates have generally been higher than 1.5%)

Stompa

Milarky wrote: »

If it is only using the current rate of interest and then backtracking for up to 10 years the results may be inaccurate (because rates have generally been higher than 1.5%)

Indeed, I'm not sure I see the point of that part of the calculator. If it's not going to use the real rates then the result given is pretty meaningless.

mikey72

Seems wrong, I have won more than it suggests.
If average luck is 75%, I'm more in the 7% consistently.

What's a post doctoral cosmology statistician?
Will I win more if Mars is aligned with Venus

allenkj

When comparing Savings I get too many 'this'...

Will you do this with Premium Bonds?

The chance that this you won't earn this much, and saving in Premium Bonds will decrease your spending power is 98.5%.

vulcan59

Firefox 3.6.3 on Linux.

After clicking calculate in "What will I win?" the results are obscured by the "Dig into the details" text. I can see the line "With £***** in Premium Bonds, if you have average luck!" but I can only see the top half of the text on the next line which contains the amount I would expect to win.

jamesd

The what tax do you pay speed bump on the calculate if savings would beat this check isn't good, better to assume basic rate and provide a radio button to change it. That way you get one step satisfaction for the majority. Same for the speed bump of having to click on something to see the full odds graphed, which I'd like to see displayed immediately.

Changing the amount or term promptly throws away the display settings I've just made, not a very friendly thing to be doing. Even goes so far as to put back the tax question speed bump.

At the moment it's initially looking much to like a page that could be replaced with "Don't buy Premium Bonds" in 50 point text and nothing else. Not really the impression I want to see from a tool with so much excellent calculation and purpose behind it.

I'm unconvinced of the merits of putting cosmology so prominently at the start. While I know what cosmology is, it still makes me think of horoscopes, not the serious mathematics I expect from a cosmologist.

Overall, I'll link people to the original one instead of this one if that was an option. Or just tell them and not link to this one at all. I'd use it as it is now only as a least bad option if I couldn't find something better.

Sorry for the less than desirable but frank and hopefully useful feedback.

shop-to-drop

Is there a reason that it only goes up to 10 years? Many people have premium bonds for a lifetime.

COUPON_GIRL

This is the result I got in the 'How lucky am I?' section?

The Key Result

Congratulations!
You are lucky - only 0% of people who have put £500 in premium bonds over 10 years win £0.00 or more.



Not sure how this makes me lucky? The section on the left says I should have won 50 quid, but I am lucky for winning nothing? Very confusing:think:

Blackdog

It worked well for me, really simple to use and very flash! Just a shame the results it gives are so disappointing! The thing is I keep my money in there just in case I win the big one, unlikely i know but I still look forward to the envelope from Glasgow popping through the letter box.