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Debate House Prices


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Is this why prices will rise for a while yet?

Blacklight
Blacklight Posts: 1,565 Forumite
Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
edited 19 May 2010 at 8:51AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy 
Year:        Index:     No of Years:

1952-1967    100-200    15
1967-1972    200-400    5
1972-1978    400-800    6
1978-1984    800-1600   6
1984-1989    1600-3200  5
1989-2003    3200-6400  14
From 2003 we saw a rise from 6400 to 9730 in 2007 (52%) in 4 years. At that rate house prices would have doubled by 2009 (in 6 years). Other things happened which prevented that trend and rises have stalled for the last 3 years.

Indications are that they will pick up dramatically in the near future. Two consecutive periods of very slow growth in 1989-2003 (14 years) and 2003-2010 (only 34% in 7 years) could mean a short sharp shock as prices now look well out of sync with the long term trend.

Discuss.
«1

Comments

  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    Blacklight wrote: »
    Discuss.

    I'd like to see the link for the data.
    However, simply taking a timeframe for growth is flawed as it doesn't take into account the number of things that drive house prices.

    Certainly, it would appear that with an increasing population and not enough properties being built to support that population growth, that house prices would rise.

    We do not know however, what the future could bring.
    Any number of fundamentals could change.
    We could set a negative net migration, we could see increase in properties built, we could see a change in culture to more like the east where three or four generations share the same property.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Blacklight wrote: »
    Year:        Index:     No of Years:
 
1952-1967    100-200    15
1967-1972    200-400    5
1972-1978    400-800    6
1978-1984    800-1600   6
1984-1989    1600-3200  5
1989-2003    3200-6400  14
    From 2003 we saw a rise from 6400 to 9730 in 2007 (52%) in 4 years. At that rate house prices would have doubled by 2009 (in 6 years). Other things happened which prevented that trend and rises have stalled for the last 3 years.

    Indications are that they will pick up dramatically in the near future. Two consecutive periods of very slow growth in 1989-2003 (14 years) and 2003-2010 (only 34% in 7 years) could mean a short sharp shock as prices now look well out of sync with the long term trend.

    Discuss.

    Discuss history?

    You learn lessons from history, not predict the future.
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Discuss history?

    You learn lessons from history, not predict the future.

    What do these lessons teach you then?
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • zygurat789
    zygurat789 Posts: 4,263 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    IveSeenTheLight wrote: »
    What do these lessons teach you then?

    That history doesn't always repeat itself
    The only thing that is constant is change.
  • nearlynew
    nearlynew Posts: 3,800 Forumite
    zygurat789 wrote: »
    That history doesn't always repeat itself

    .......... but it always rhymes.
    "The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
    Albert Einstein
  • new_home_owner_3
    new_home_owner_3 Posts: 1,191 Forumite
    ive worked it out looking at the graphs and historical data, my calculations say houses will have gone up 50 pence by 2020.

    And thats nationally.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    IveSeenTheLight wrote: »
    What do these lessons teach you then?

    Only fools chase rainbows.
  • new_home_owner_3
    new_home_owner_3 Posts: 1,191 Forumite
    If you counted 24 hours a day, it would take 31,688 years to reach one trillion!
  • 1984ReturnsForReal_2
    1984ReturnsForReal_2 Posts: 15,431 Forumite
    new_home_owner wrote: »
    If you counted 24 hours a day, it would take 31,688 years to reach one trillion!


    Most people can't count past 10. - SUPERFACT
    Not Again
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »
    Most people can't count past 10. - SUPERFACT

    Tenty one, tenty two etc
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