SHORT BP (and go long detergents)

JamesU

1echidna wrote: »

Don't know if this is true or not but interesting:

http://www.businessinsider.com/think-bp-is-totally-on-the-hook-for-the-spill-theyre-massively-protected-by-tax-dollars-2010-5?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Think BP Is Totally On The Hook For The Spill? They're Massively Protected By Tax Dollars

Not sure. The fund seems to be capped at $1 billion.

Update: Barrel tax until fund reached $1 billion, but within the link further detail: "The Energy Policy Act of 2005 increased the maximum size of the Fund to $2.7 billion."

JamesU

http://www.uscg.mil/npfc/About_NPFC/osltf.asp

lvader

The ultimate liability may be with Transocean which I believe is a US company, my guess that the financial and liability mess will go on for many years.

1echidna

BP down 6% on the day in New York and 7% in Frankfurt a few minutes ago. Glad I'm out, too much uncertainty for me.

1echidna

lvader wrote: »

The ultimate liability may be with Transocean which I believe is a US company, my guess that the financial and liability mess will go on for many years.

Who chose them to do the job, supervised them and paid for the work?. Who has the large wallet to pay up? I don't know quite what the legal niceties might be (and there will be enquiries to be held), but the shear politics/public relations aspects may mean that BP pays and even then that is only the start of further consequential damage to the commercial interests of BP in the region. I remember the American congress members talking about BP management being as rusty as its pipes in relation to the Alaskan leaks, what metaphors are they going to drag up over this affair I wonder?

ess0two

1echidna wrote: »

Some information there but by no means all. There is mention of a riser being crimped early on (not quite clear how this happened) which may be limiting flow. But there are references elsewhere on the Internet to the flow being higher than the max mentioned in the interview with the coastguards 25000bpd rather than 5000bpd. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7664907/Louisiana-oil-spill-may-be-five-times-bigger-than-previously-thought.html

Most probably TSOV (tight shut off valve) has failed to close on the seabed.
These valves close on suddenly losses of line pressure,should be fail safe and are regularly tested for integrity,at least where i work we follow this practice.

Last line of defence really.

1echidna

ess0two wrote: »

Most probably TSOV (tight shut off valve) has failed to close on the seabed.
These valves close on suddenly losses of line pressure,should be fail safe and are regularly tested for integrity,at least where i work we follow this practice.

Last line of defence really.

Indeed there was a shut off valve which should have closed.

sabretoothtigger

The Worst Case Scenario

A new well must be drilled and then this one can be sealed. This will take at least three months. Damages will be to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, all industries dependent on the Gulf of Mexico will be destroyed for a generation, and spread to Mexico is possible.

If they drill a new well then surely they will extract the oil

The Eastern seaboard of the US is also damaged. The costs rise into the very high hundreds of billions of dollars. The cleanup takes a decade or more.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/black-swan-baby-black-swan-the-bp-oil-spill/?p=10527/

lvader

1echidna wrote: »

Who chose them to do the job, supervised them and paid for the work?. Who has the large wallet to pay up? I don't know quite what the legal niceties might be (and there will be enquiries to be held), but the shear politics/public relations aspects may mean that BP pays and even then that is only the start of further consequential damage to the commercial interests of BP in the region. I remember the American congress members talking about BP management being as rusty as its pipes in relation to the Alaskan leaks, what metaphors are they going to drag up over this affair I wonder?

Who chose BP to do the job?, !!!!!! travels downwards not upwards. BP will be measured on how well thay clean up the mess, if they end up recovering the money from the true negligent party, the US or the media won't care.

sabretoothtigger

BP: Oil rig leak 'wasn't our accident'
CEO to NBC: We'll clean it up, but rig was run by Transocean

Envision sort of an underground volcano of oil and it keeps spewing over 200,000 gallons every single day, if not more."

That estimate could climb to several million gallons a day in the event of a total wellhead failure — a much greater breach than exists now.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36912754/ns/us_news-environment/

1echidna

lvader wrote: »

Who chose BP to do the job?, !!!!!! travels downwards not upwards. BP will be measured on how well thay clean up the mess, if they end up recovering the money from the true negligent party, the US or the media won't care.

They have zero chance of recovering the money from Transocean, contracts specifically preclude it. As has been said expect BP to be taken to the cleaners.