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Debate House Prices
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Nationwide: +1% MoM +10.5% YoY
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »There's nothing amazing about it.
It's been blindingly obvious for quite some time.
If you think that the normal response to a credit and banking crisis is for house prices to rise you need to look at your economic history again.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yes.
House oversupply.:D
I've corrected that for you.0 -
they can't defty gravity at all, they will have to re-correct - a 1% rise is big and it all leads to a 0.9% drop being just as big the next month.
i still stick to my view that the 2008 drops were too much and 2009 corrected these big drops. these rises will need a correction at some point soon.
It's a good point. My feeling is that the bubble may not have been a bubble at all (despite feeling an awful lot like it) but instead was a one-off repricing of property to reflect lower real interest rates.
That may well be the case, especially as the memory of the 1970s & 80s high inflation wears off so investors no longer need to get a higher payoff for inflation risk when investing in sterling. However, it leaves the housing market very vulnerable to an interest rate shock not that one appears imminent.0 -
I don't see anything particularly amazing or gravity defying.
Prices aren't really 'rising', they're just adjusting back to natural levels following the beating they took during the 2008/2009 recession.0 -
If you think that the normal response to a credit and banking crisis is for house prices to rise you need to look at your economic history again.
And if you think that the normal response to economic recovery and a massive and worsening shortage of housing is falling prices, then you probably need your head read....
The shortage is so overwhelming, and therefore the natural bias towards rising prices so huge, that the smaller than expected rises in unemployment, and reduced lending, have simply not been enough to keep house prices down.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
My feeling is that the bubble may not have been a bubble at all (despite feeling an awful lot like it) but instead was a one-off repricing of property to reflect lower real interest rates.
On that we (mostly) agree.
It wasn't a bubble.
Except it also wasn't one-off. The average for the last decade was 5% or so. It'll be more like 2.5% for the next decade or two.
Plenty room for price increases yet....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And if you think that the normal response to economic recovery and a massive and worsening shortage of housing is falling prices, then you probably need your head read....
The shortage is so overwhelming, and therefore the natural bias towards rising prices so huge, that the smaller than expected rises in unemployment, and reduced lending, have simply not been enough to keep house prices down.
LOL
Didnt you know that supply is currently outstripping demand?0 -
mmm no snow and the market seems to picking up again.
To think some argued the harsh winter had no effect on prices or transactions.
May be worth doing a poll on where people think the nominal bottom was / will be.
I personally say it has to be last year now.
Some one can set it up if they like I can't be @rsed.:)0
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