Is it just my area, or are there a huge number of new properties on the market?

MrEnglish

Harry all Im saying is that the more houses coming to market and fewer people looking to buy (cant get credit until prices come down) can only result in prices coming down.

Its not rocket science.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

i'm not silly enough to think that one months mortgage approvals is going to tell us where the housing market is going...

i'm surprised that you're looking at the RICS data now. at least the Halifax virtually mirrors the Land Registry, so both indexes can't be wrong...

one thing RICS does tell you though... viewings are way down in the last 12 weeks, whatever anyone says this impacts the levels of HPI (up and down).

In my area its mainly well done up properties on the nicest roads which are selling. Tatty properties even in good areas are sticking. I experienced this when I sold in the Summer of 2007 took me nearly 12 weeks to sell a property that would have sold in a week in Jan-Feb 2007.

Therefore I'm not surprised that Haliwide are showing gains even though the many are experiencing a struggling market.

Halifax only gives prices for properties which are in the process of selling. Mortgage approvals will lag RICS by a few weeks and the number of new sellers/buyers and number of properties being sold interests me more than simply price rises.

Harry_Powell

MrEnglish wrote: »

Harry all Im saying is that the more houses coming to market and fewer people looking to buy (cant get credit until prices come down) can only result in prices coming down.

Its not rocket science.

It clearly must be rocket science to some people....

Does it not cross your mind that these prospective sellers are also prospective buyers, unless as I stated, you believe that all these sellers consist of BTL landlords getting rid of property or sell to rent people speculating on the market.

Well?

carolt

I don't know the reason - but certainly round here an unusually large number do seem to be chain free. So not also prospective buyers, in other words, just sellers.

carolt

Harry_Powell wrote: »

One thing to consider is that if the Lib Dems get into power (i.e. via power share), they will be looking to remove the 40% tax rebate for higher earners and they will also be looking to increase capital gains in line with income tax.

Given this double whammy, many tax & investment experts are saying that it'll create a second housing boom as the middle classes pile into property - buying the largest home that they can afford to avoid Caps Gain Tax and BTL for the mortgage tax relief.

What 40% tax rebate for higher earners?

We're higher earners and I hadn't noticed anyone giving us out tax back, sadly.

Why would putting capital gains tax up mean fewer sellers - surely they'd all rush to sell before that happened, where it was a second home or BTL?

Cleaver

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Yeah it's an epic fail, indicative of the desparation they must be feeling as they know if they wait any longer they'll start to lose serious hard cash in the forthcoming crash.

If this were a bull market they'd at least put it on for 15-20% higher than the previous purchase price.

This has all the hallmarks of a investment property fail... cashing in their chips before the election, and the subsequent "UK-does-a-Greece" debacle!!

It's posts like this that really make me think that people see the world as shaped by this forum. Yes, your post could be correct and the sellers might be looking at Greece, and the election, and have considered that this isn't a bull market, and more of a bear market...

...or...

..they are just some normal people who bought a house to live in. They lived in it for a few years and are now selling it because, for whatever reason, they want to go and live somewhere else. Their lives aren't shaped by money and they are selling it for what they paid for it. They probably don't even know what a 'bull market' is, let alone care.

Harry_Powell

carolt wrote: »

What 40% tax rebate for higher earners?

We're higher earners and I hadn't noticed anyone giving us out tax back, sadly.

Why would putting capital gains tax up mean fewer sellers - surely they'd all rush to sell before that happened, where it was a second home or BTL?

They're talking about getting rid of the higher rate (40%) tax rebate on pension contributions. At the mo, if a high rate taxpayer pays £100 into a pension plan, s/he receives £40 tax rebate (20% in his/her pension plan and 20% via his/her tax return). If the LibDems get their way, everyone will just receive the 20% pension rebate.

There might be a rush to sell prior to the cap gains tax going up, but as this can be done overnight, you'd have to be pretty quick (and as you pointed out earlier, even a rapid sale can take 3 months).

Harry_Powell

carolt wrote: »

I don't know the reason - but certainly round here an unusually large number do seem to be chain free. So not also prospective buyers, in other words, just sellers.

How do you know they're chain free? (don't tell me you fall for the EA 'vacant possession on completion' blurb - all houses are vacant possession on completion, unless they have a sitting tenant).

I'd also not believe the 'no chain' scam either. We went to see plenty of houses when we were buying where the estate agent promised that the vendor was going to go into rented accomodation so that they 'had time to choose their next property'. When we asked some of the vendors, they looked very shifty and one even admitted that they didn't know they'd be stuck in an assured tenancy agreement for 6 months B4 they could buy again - they reconsidered that option. Needless to say we didn't buy any of these houses as we wanted a quick purchase.

Cleaver

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

I've noticed this in my local area too. I strongly suspect vendors know the next leg of the crash is just around the corner and are trying to bale out while they still can. The phrase "rats fleeing the sinking ship" clearly springs to mind.

Right, this is going to be a repeat of my last post, but who cares.

Normal, everyday, bog-standard people buy and sell houses to live in. New job here, kid on the way there, downsize to a flat, move closer to family, fancy a bigger garden, like the look of a new area, kids have gone to Uni, move away from family etc. etc. I'm not dumb and I know that economic conditions will shape any market, and some people (i.e. a minority) may be looking at the financial horizon and making some decisions based on that, maybe those who are buying for the first time, investment buyers / sellers etc.

But for me the phrase 'rats fleeing a sinking ship' doesn't come anywhere near my mind, and I have to ask why it comes to yours? Do you really see the millions of homeowners out there shaping their lives around QE? Around the election? Around libor rates? Around 'haliwide' reports? Because they think we're entering the 'last leg of the crash? Because it's a 'bear market'? Because the 'bull market' is over? Of course not. People move for jobs, family, change in cicumstances and likely always will. This isn't me saying houses prices will always rise or always fall, but no one in the real world thinks "ooh, house price crash on the horizon, better sell my house." That's a mental assumption to make. Some might, but not many.

Funnily enough my Dad's house went on the market a couple of days ago. Is he fleeing a sinking ship? Worried about the election? Gripped by interest rate worries? Concerned that a crash is coming? No, my Mum died and he wants to move closer to family and get a smaller place. He couldn't give a stuff about interest rates and what government will be in next week. And 90% of people buying and selling houses will have reasons like this behind their choices.

This forum is starting to make me see house prices and economics with a slant that just doesn't relate to real life and how real people think. I reckon I need to get away!

Really2

carolt wrote: »

I don't know the reason - but certainly round here an unusually large number do seem to be chain free. So not also prospective buyers, in other words, just sellers.

Our sale had no upward chain until we found somewhere to buy. Fairly pointless starting a chain when you have not sold yourself, your bargaining power is weakened if you do.