Is it just my area, or are there a huge number of new properties on the market?

IveSeenTheLight

Alan_M wrote: »

If you can provide fact of currently occurring events I, and many posters on this forum, would be delighted to see them and the basis of which this "Fact" was compiled.

In real terms a "Fact" is a historical statistic....so in two to three years time, we'll know what the facts of 2010 were and will be able to judge if our anecdotes or Hamish were nearer the mark.

Not exactly true.

I could link to a versted interest corner of mine to show what properties are currently for sale.
www.aspc.co.uk

Previously I did this and commented that 23% of the properties in the area I measured was at fixed price.
doing the same comparison, only 9% are now fixed price with a higher number of properties.
This is a significant indicator in the Scottish market that confidence in house prices is stronger in that there are less fixed price properties

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

funny you say that, i walked past the jewellers in Liverpool St yesterday and there was only a couple of people in there. the shop window was crammed with jewellery and watches. definetely higher supply against a smaller level of demand...

i didn't see them dropping their prices to try and sell their stock.

the thing is about this anecdotal (as with many) is there is no proof that the jeweller hasn't dropped their prices because of the lower demand.

What I meant from before is if supply increased 15% and demand increased 7% it does not answer exactly how much of each there has been an increase in or indeed in which local areas.

As an example, Demand could be 200000 which increase by 7% to 214,000 a 14,000 increase.
Supply could be 100,000 increases by 15% to 115,000 a 15,000 increase

In this scenario, although supply increases by a higher percentage, in actual terms it's still lower than demand.

**NOTE** Of course this is only reflective of the figures I have utilised as a way of underlining a higher percentage does not indeed mean a widening of the ration.
the figures could indeed be reversed and mean that the perceived 8% difference is actually much greater.

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

the thing is about this anecdotal (as with many) is there is no proof that the jeweller hasn't dropped their prices because of the lower demand.

What I meant from before is if supply increased 15% and demand increased 7% it does not answer exactly how much of each there has been an increase in or indeed in which local areas.

exactly right.

an increased supply does not necessarily mean lower house prices it means people have more choice and will take longer to decide what they will buy.

and also if houses that are 'worse' quality are being priced at existing 'good' quality house prices that are getting sold. what happens to the new 'good' quality houses that are come on? they'll be at a higher price because they are more attaractive to buyers....

Harry_Powell

dopester wrote: »

Enjoy it. I'm loving it. It's the same for many areas I monitor. The sellers will all be competing with each other against a diminishing pool of byers. Competing and for those sellers who really want/have to sell, lowering prices, causing general values to fall. Tougher to qualify for mortgages, economic prospects, fewer confident about trading up and taking on more debt against a background of prices falling, those at the top wanting to trade down.

It's not a total dam burst but a sure sign that QE and low interest rates couldn't contain the consequences of a credit-fuelled bubble in house prices which has ended. When you look at anything closely enough, you find it connected to everything else in the universe. We should begin to see some nice falls in value from mid 2010 to end of the year, I would have thought. Nothing epic, but leading us nicely into 2011.

Or alternatively, those people who were afraid of moving house while we were in a recession now have enough confidence in the economic recovery to put their homes up for sale and move on.

Only time will tell.

zappahey

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

I strongly suspect vendors know the next leg of the crash is just around the corner and are trying to bale out while they still can.

I strongly suspect that you're significantly over-estimating the clairvoyance capabilities of the average vendor and most think that the market is picking up nicely (after all, the Express said so) and it's the perfect time to move.

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

exactly right.

an increased supply does not necessarily mean lower house prices it means people have more choice and will take longer to decide what they will buy.

I certainly know a colleague who is looking to buy and despite there being a number of properties available, many don;t meet his and his wifes requirements

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I certainly know a colleague who is looking to buy and despite there being a number of properties available, many don;t meet his and his wifes requirements

a bit like me - it took me 12-18 months to find the right property to buy

dopester

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Or alternatively, those people who were afraid of moving house while we were in a recession now have enough confidence in the economic recovery to put their homes up for sale and move on.

Only time will tell.

Yes.. time will tell Harry. It's true some people have to move on, and have perhaps delayed doing so. And some owners can afford to lower their asking price in order to get buyers.

Like that lady (green painted house) you told to 'hold her ground' and 'don't give your home away' - despite her direct neighbour's superior looking house also on the market for £500 less.

Have you noticed the neighbour (white painted house) has now cut the asking price even further? Whereas the OP is still asking more for her lesser looking house.

Expect more of this, even in UB4, where I notice many more properties are also coming on to market. As I explained on that thread, this policy some people have to 'hold out for the price you want' is very dangerous in my view. Increasingly sellers who are intransigent about what their house is worth, or what they need/deserve, are going to look so delusional against what other sellers in the market are doing, in my opinion.

I'm already seeing many examples; with very standard looking one bed flats in big blocks asking more than a nice 3 bed houses in the nicer road around the corner. It would be more so if interest rates were higher and other supports were kicked away, but even without that... it's happening.

ukcarper

Alan_M wrote: »

I live in a nice part of Surrey in a cul de sac with a total of 30 properties.

They don't sell very often around here even in the boom, people like it and tend to stay put, but three have gone on the market this month, all close neighbours, all for the same reason....

They were all made redundant from their respective employers, have hung on as long as possible but are now having to sell before repossession. It's quite sad actually.

Having had a look on ourproperty, these are averaging a 25% reduction on 2007 highs.

Can you imagine how extensive this problem would be if we had realistic interest rates?

I also live in a cul de sac in Surrey one house sold late last year and that was a house that was bought in 2007 it sold for 3% less that in was bought for. That house is detached in March a semi which has the same layout but slightly smaller went on market at the price the detached sold for in 2007 and went sold subject to contract within a fortnight, I don't know what for and of course it hasn’t sold properly yet.

carolt

undetterred wrote: »

I also like the assured assumption of this quote..........

Will be interesting to see what happens to them all post election - appears to be a case of cold feet pre-election; obviously none will sell beforehand, so we will have to wait and see...

What, you think they're going to go from 'on sale' to 'sold' in 1 week?

Um, I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that's not going to happen, given I've never heard of the sale process taking less than a month from start to finish (bar auctions, which these aren't), and 3 months is, I believe, a more typical timescale.