The UK Housing Bubble yet to Burst: FT Video

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

People will sell because they have to, the government cant afford to prop up the market any longer.

this isn't happening and won't happen to the scale you're trying to imply.
saying that is just scaremongering and just not true.

mbga9pgf wrote: »

You are forgetting, people dont sell at times like this because they want to. They will sell because Petrol will be costing 1.50 a litre, they have just fallen off the SMI scheme and need to sell. Get enough people selling with such low demand and you have significant price falls.

people just don't sell, simple.

if they can't sell they won't be able to move not because they are forced to sell.
the market becomes stagnant and very little will sell.
deaths and divorces will not be enough in volume to move sale prices in the market.

doire_2

How sexy is the interviewer!

GDB2222

Blacklight wrote: »

Then everyone that has bought a property since 2006 will be in negative equity. But then that's what you want isn't it. How very nice and selfish of you.

I don't want to get into a fight about this, but the selfishness goes both ways. People who want prices to stay high are being selfish because they want FTBs and people trading up to pay high prices. I am not saying one is right and the other is wrong - just that it's a bit more complicated than you are saying.

carolt

My favourite quotes, at around 2 mins in:

"There are no exceptions (= to the fact that bubbles always return to the trend line before the bubble) and this is the key.

...If they (= UK and Australian house prices) do not in both cases go back to the old trend-line multiple of family income, which is what should drive house prices, it will be the first time in history that such a bubble has not broken.

This is NOT something I would want to bet on, if I was thinking of buying a house right now."


Well, he seems pretty sure.

So - who to choose? An experienced bloke interviewed by the FT...or Hamish?

Oooh, it's a toughie.

ukcarper

carolt wrote: »

My favourite quotes, at around 2 mins in:

...If they (= UK and Australian house prices) do not in both cases go back to the old trend-line multiple of family income, which is what should drive house prices, it will be the first time in history that such a bubble has not broken.

what multiple of family income

brit1234

ukcarper wrote: »

what multiple of family income

Does that include kids paper rounds. If we send them up chimneys prices can go even higher.:beer:

Also we can give up food and put it into property, we all could be property zillionaires

ukcarper

brit1234 wrote: »

Does that include kids paper rounds. If we send them up chimneys prices can go even higher.:beer:

Also we can give up food and put it into property, we all could be property zillionaires

I love the way on this site that when you ask a reasonable question and you get a sarcastic reply

ukcarper

Average UK House price in 2000 = £101,550 average salary £22188 = 4.5
Average UK House price in 1991 = £62,455 average salary £14804 = 4.2
Average UK House price in 1982 = £23,644 average salary £7098 = 3.3
Average UK House price in 1973 = £9,942 average salary £1892 = 5.25


Here are some random figures I cannot guarantee accuracy of either value

Now £164,455 average salary about £25k therefore = 6.5 make of this what you want

Really2

ukcarper wrote: »

what multiple of family income

I did this the other page. They have never been 3.5X the average wage even at the lowest point of the last crash.

It is meant to be male average wage apparently but even then the average is above 3.5 X thats up to the low of the last crash (nearer 3.7X, including this bubble/crash is 4X)
Add to that more houses are purchased now on a dual income as most women work now surly the idea of 3.5X a man's wage is as old as the idea of a man being the only bread winner?

But having said that the average has been over that for virtually all of the last 30 years.

I think you would have to look at total house hold income over these periods not multiples of one wage to get a clearer picture of where prices should be.

Wookster

ukcarper wrote: »

Average UK House price in 2000 = £101,550 average salary £22188 = 4.5
Average UK House price in 1991 = £62,455 average salary £14804 = 4.2
Average UK House price in 1982 = £23,644 average salary £7098 = 3.3
Average UK House price in 1973 = £9,942 average salary £1892 = 5.25


Here are some random figures I cannot guarantee accuracy of either value

Now £164,455 average salary about £25k therefore = 6.5 make of this what you want

And when interest rates rise...

woe betide