The UK Housing Bubble yet to Burst: FT Video

brit1234

Here is a great video from the Financial Times on bubbles especially the British housing market. Expert reckons its yet to burst. Video link below:


http://www.ft.com/cms/86a30e34-dfd5-11dc-8073-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=15762261&fromSearch=n

IveSeenTheLight

He's made an assumption that the supply and demand levels are balanced.
He has not considered that an increasing population and demand for housing has not been supplimented with proportionally increased properties.

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

brit1234

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

He's made an assumption that the supply and demand levels are balanced.
He has not considered that an increasing population and demand for housing has not been supplimented with proportionally increased properties.

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

Come on, you have to admit the housing market is one huge bubble?

Lets show 100 year graph of land legistry prices instead

mbga9pgf

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

He's made an assumption that the supply and demand levels are balanced.
He has not considered that an increasing population and demand for housing has not been supplimented with proportionally increased properties.

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

Supply = available lending or money in general. Factor in end of the Support for mortgage interest scheme.

Demand = peoples willing to pay over the odds for a home which they cant afford with the threat of rising rates. Factor in civil sector job cuts.

Is that what you meant?

Procrastinator333

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

He actually states it returns to the pre bubble trend line.

RDB

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

He actually states it returns to the pre bubble trend line.

Which means a huge crash

mbga9pgf

I reckon 20% off will do it.

twadge_face

Excellent sober-minded sanity. A treat to read.

But then it is the FT.

Funny how the bulls leap on every trashy, sub-intelligent, nonsensical tabloid waffle like the Daily Express but seem surprisingly quiet when it comes to reasonable fellas like Jeremy Grantham, who is regarded thus:

[Grantham is] a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets. Grantham started one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s. As of December 2009, GMO reported on its web site that it managed more than US $107 billion.

...so he's clearly not some half-wit idiot.

Kohoutek

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Excellent sober-minded sanity. A treat to read.

But then it is the FT.

Funny how the bulls leap on every trashy, sub-intelligent, nonsensical tabloid waffle like the Daily Express but seem surprisingly quiet when it comes to reasonable fellas like Jeremy Grantham

As of December 2009, GMO reported on its web site that it managed more than US $107 billion.

...so he's clearly not some half-wit idiot.

If you go by that analysis, we are !!!!ed!

[Bill Gross] warned that the UK was a "must to avoid" for his investors as its debt was "resting on a bed of nitroglycerine".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/26/uk-economy-debt-bob-gross

[Bill Gross] has $2bn (£1.3bn) to his name...and some $1trillion under management

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/12/bill-gross-bonds-investor

GDB2222

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

He's made an assumption that the supply and demand levels are balanced.
He has not considered that an increasing population and demand for housing has not been supplimented with proportionally increased properties.

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

When did we last have a balance between supply and what people want? There's always been excess demand for houses in this country, and that's been factored into prices from previous years.

The Nationwide trend takes into account the bubble, and so it is bound to project it forward.

Cat695

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

He's made an assumption that the supply and demand levels are balanced.
He has not considered that an increasing population and demand for housing has not been supplimented with proportionally increased properties.

He states that in all cases the market returns to the long term trend and this is not seen in the UK or Australian housing markets yet.

Maybe someone should show him the nationwide long term trend graph

Nationwide mmmh do they not have a big interest in house prices rising?? I wonder why they would project house prices rising.....just a thought.