If it's all about supply and demand.....

JonnyBravo

what will this mean?


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8615105.stm


Sellers outweighing buyers!

We're possibly about to test Hamish's theory to destruction it seems.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

It means the market is going to do exactly what most people thought for at least the next 6-12 months or so.

Prices are going dormant or will be dropping in steady small drops.

ukcarper

Are all people think of moving registered with a EA or are some looking at rightmove etc waiting for something they fancy

CLAPTON

supply and demand

the match between selling willing to sell at a given price
and buying willing and able (i.e. have the finance) to buy at that given price

in my experience there is a buyer for each house sold.

westv

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

It means the market is going to do exactly what most people thought for at least the next 6-12 months or so.

Prices are going dormant or will be dropping in steady small drops.

Hope so! It's been almost 3 months since I got made redundant and I want to be able to make the most of my deposit money (kept topped up by tips found on MSE forums) when I can eventually buy again.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Sellers outweighing buyers!

We're possibly about to test Hamish's theory to destruction it seems.

RICS have a pretty good explanation for what it means......

Price increases were still more common than price falls across the UK, but the surveyors' body predicted prices would stabilise in the next few months

"With the general election approaching and uncertainty growing over the political direction of the country, many vendors who were previously inclined to sit on the sidelines now appear eager to put their properties on the market," said Rics spokesperson Ian Perry.

"However, with stocks increasing and sales decreasing we may see some modest price falls in some regions although London, the South East and Scotland are continuing to perform well," he added.

The latest monthly Rics survey indicated that prices during March had dropped in East Anglia, Yorkshire & Humberside, the north of England, the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, but had continued to rise strongly in London, the South East and Scotland.

The overall effect of supply increasing into a market still suffering the effects of mortgage rationing should be pretty much as RICS suggest above. Some falls, some rises, a bit of stagnation, etc.

We already know that regions perform differently, and that the shortage is more pronounced in some areas, and less so in others.

We know that high stock levels, combined with just 28,000 mortgage approvals a month, caused prices to fall off a cliff.....

Lower stock levels, combined with 40K, 50K, 60K approvals a month caused prices to rise all last year.

So current stock levels, combined with 40K, 50K, 60K mortgage approvals a month should be consistent with price neutrality overall.

I'm holding with my forecast for this year to end up, as a national average, as +3% to +7%. There will obviously be significant regional variations. Just as there have been throughout.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

supply and demand

the match between selling willing to sell at a given price
and buying willing and able (i.e. have the finance) to buy at that given price

in my experience there is a buyer for each house sold.

A simple point but one which is often missed.

If the number of sellers rise, that doesn't necessarily mean that supply will rise: the experience of the past couple of years shows us that people will hang on to their house rather than sell for 'less than it's worth'.

Harry_Powell

Generali wrote: »

A simple point but one which is often missed.

If the number of sellers rise, that doesn't necessarily mean that supply will rise: the experience of the past couple of years shows us that people will hang on to their house rather than sell for 'less than it's worth'.

Totally agree. Lot of vendors will have seen the 9 to 12% gains in the papers and will simply be putting their houses on the market to pick up a speculative sale. It doesn't necessarily mean that they will sell at 'all costs'. When I was looking for our home last year, I found very few people that were really desperate to sell, even at the height of the recession and the depth of the house price crash.

Also agree that for almost every house that is sold, a new prospective buyer is created.

phil_b_2

Most of the increase in houses on the market can be attributed to the recent improvement in the market and sellers gaining confidence. They are happy to take a punt at selling their house now.

I'll bet you that if average time on the market goes back up, prices start to drop and we get a whiff of the 2008 situation all the recent additions to rightmove etc will say 'sod that' and withdraw again, rather than big price reductions accross the nation.

People just dont want to reduce prices, and surely that will only really happen if forced sales boost up? Not gonna happen with these interest rates.

Emy1501

phil_b wrote: »

Most of the increase in houses on the market can be attributed to the recent improvement in the market and sellers gaining confidence. They are happy to take a punt at selling their house now.

I'll bet you that if average time on the market goes back up, prices start to drop and we get a whiff of the 2008 situation all the recent additions to rightmove etc will say 'sod that' and withdraw again, rather than big price reductions accross the nation.

People just dont want to reduce prices, and surely that will only really happen if forced sales boost up? Not gonna happen with these interest rates.

Depends on why people are selling. If people do not need to move then they will only sell if the price is right. I know a couple of sellers though who need to sell by the end of the year for schooling. They put it offer over the last year or so but they will have to move now.

Also people will want to get on with their lives. Therefore if there are signs of the market stalling for time then we may see some falls.

I suspect as much of an issue is whether buyers especially FTB's are putting off buying till after the election or we are starting to run out of them with a large enough deposit.

lemonjelly

Does this mean we will get the chance to type
TIMBER!!!!
In really large letters again?