Housing Faces prolonged bear market.

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

I notice like others you are evading the question of where real growth will come from over the next 10-15 years.

You didn't ask me any such question, so how could I have been evading it?

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

One doesn't need to be Nostrodamus to know that houses will cost more in 40 years time than they do now. Even you're not dense enough to think that my statement is comparable with some of the amazingly specific predictions on here.

Come now Graham, don't try to play me - I know you're not that dense. I've seen through your game, remember....

Genius, absolute genius!

House prices are way less than peak in Japan the only country to have previously tried QE.

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

You didn't ask me any such question, so how could I have been evading it?

You are rubbishing peoples predictions on a debate and prediction forum. Maybe you can explain the reasons behind your opinions

Graham_Devon

Harry_Powell wrote: »

One doesn't need to be Nostrodamus to know that houses will cost more in 40 years time than they do now. Even you're not dense enough to think that my statement is comparable with some of the amazingly specific predictions on here.

Come now Graham, don't try to play me - I know you're not that dense. I've seen through your game, remember....

Genius, absolute genius!

So your one of those guys that you denoted with a * then.

Glad we cleared that one up

I'm not playing you. Just picking up on contradictions. It's one thing I do quite well

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

if ordinary inflation runs at say 4% and real wage growth a couple of points above that then wage inflation might well run at 6% per annum

Thats remarkably optimistic. When the concensus view is that economic power is shifting Eastwards. May take some years but its hard to see what will reverse it.

Morelikely real interest rates will be 3% - 5% above average payrises. Payrises themselves may well struggle to match inflation. As we struggle to repay debt while others invest.

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Thats remarkably optimistic. When the concensus view is that economic power is shifting Eastwards. May take some years but its hard to see what will reverse it.

Morelikely real interest rates will be 3% - 5% above average payrises. Payrises themselves may well struggle to match inflation. As we struggle to repay debt while others invest.

we have averaged real wage increases of round 2.5% pa since the second world war; mainly based on innovation and the associated increased productivity.

I see no specific reason for this to slow down or stop whether or not the East can grow at 8% or more.

As for ordinary inflation of 4% ..well that's just a guess but I would see inflation rising due to pressure on natural resources, exchange rate pressures and when the recovery comes from the usual wage inflation pressure.

I'm not sure I understand why you think real interest rates will be 3-5% above wage inflation.. historically that's very high. And even if they were I don't see that that would mean that house prices wouldn't keep broadly in line with wage inflation.
If however we started building a lot more houses and/or limited the population growth then yes maybe house prices would be constrainted.

CLAPTON

PS
on reflection I'm not sure what you mean by real interest rates will be 3-5% above wage inflation'
do you mean 'actual interest rates'?

Harry_Powell

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So your one of those guys that you denoted with a * then.

Glad we cleared that one up

I'm not playing you. Just picking up on contradictions. It's one thing I do quite well

lol Graham. We all know what you do well - wreck threads by entangling people in pointless discussions and introducing half assed and irrelevent arguments. You're amazing at this Graham, and I take my hat off to you.

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

We are not going to see .5% base rates in our life time again.

It's still my lifetime and rates are still .5%!!!!

Your prediction is only a day old and it's wrong. This doesn't bode well for your predictions that cover the rest of the decade....

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

It's still my lifetime and rates are still .5%!!!!

Your prediction is only a day old and it's wrong. This doesn't bode well for your predictions that cover the rest of the decade....

I think it was pretty obvious what I was getting at but still I notice that for all your posts on the thread you have not provided any comments on why peoples predictions regarding real term prices are wrong. I'm still happy for you or any other bull to confirm where the real term rises will come from.