How do you think the interest rate increase will affect the market ?

mikeyw

Is there a definitive house price index ?

There are so many metrics around some say the market is flat others say it's rising.....I know there are regional variances but is there a national figure that everyone uses ???

If share prices fall the FTSE reflects it - what reflects a fall in house prices ?

Jay1b

BTL's profitability depends upon where you buy. Personally i wouldnt buy one in an area like Harrogate as i would imagine the area is very well established. Personally i would look into areas which may have some specific reason to go up in price. For example i live near the Island of Sheppy, which had a single lane bridge going to it, this bridge raised for boats going underneath causing huge amounts of traffic delays getting on and off the island. They've just opened a new dual carriageway 'fixed' suspension bridge, this means that access onto and off the island has been improved threefold. As a result house prices on the island are surely to rise, if they havent already. If i was looking into buying a BTL i would find somewhere like this, where some form of structrual improvement would likely to effect house prices. Also look at things like a new rail link, airport (but not to close!), etc. I would like to point out that i dont own any BTL (just brought my own first house, but i've been interested and following them for quite some time).

As for house prices, i really dont what will happen and truth be told nobody really knows what will happen. I believe halifax calculated house prices to grow by about 8% this coming year. Which isnt loads, but on a £180K house thats still about £14K. Long term though, i cant really see house prices dropping much, yes the countries financial situation isnt great, but we have had 600,000 immigrants this year (that we know about) all these people need houses. Also with lots of people currently unable to buy, as soon as prices dropped enough for them to buy, i'm sure they would do - pushing back up house prices.

Personally i dont think house prices will rise by much, say 5-8% this year. But i also cant realistically see them falling by much either.

I hope this post is helpful and well balanced.

chris83_2

We also have emmigration in this country, which people always forget. The net increase in population is much lower than the 600,000 figure that you state. It is the tabloid papers that give us this impression that we are being swamped by immigrants when it is far from reality.

asandwhen

chris83 wrote:

We also have emmigration in this country, which people always forget. The net increase in population is much lower than the 600,000 figure that you state. It is the tabloid papers that give us this impression that we are being swamped by immigrants when it is far from reality.

But figures show a rise in unemployment and also a rise in employment so that must mean that the population is growing.

Jay1b

chris83 wrote:

We also have emmigration in this country, which people always forget. The net increase in population is much lower than the 600,000 figure that you state. It is the tabloid papers that give us this impression that we are being swamped by immigrants when it is far from reality.

Its true we do have people leaving this country as well. But i really dont believe 600,000 people from the UK emmigrant each year. 100,000 maybe? Most of those probably just buy second homes abroad and keep their current homes to come back to if things go a bit pete tong.

meanmachine_2

Jay1b wrote:

As for house prices, i really dont what will happen and truth be told nobody really knows what will happen. I believe halifax calculated house prices to grow by about 8% this coming year.

Yes, that's before interest rates went up.

And 8% is "loads". Anything above wage inflation (approx 3-4%) is ultimately an unsustainable increase that will have to be reversed at some point.

Wow, I'm amazed how complacent some of you people are. WAKE UP!Property is a HIGH RISK investment. You'll probably only learn that the hard way in coming years.

But for the love of Martin Lewis, don't say you weren't warned.

asandwhen

Any fall in the market has always corrected itself with a rise and some in the past hence higher than ever house prices. If house prices do fall which I believe they might but only by a few % it will correct itself within a year because there are so many first time buyers itching to get on and as soon as the market "falls" they will jump on and prices will rise.

meanmachine_2

I feel like I'm back in property kindergarten.

Prices will fall when the population are no longer able to borrow to afford current market levels.

That affects FTBers as much, if not more so, than any other buyer. Or do FTBers somehow have access to funds and banks the rest of the population don't?

*clunk*

asandwhen

"property kindergaten"

This is MY opinion I am allowed to have my own opinion - just because I dont agree with you doesnt make me wrong does it?

wisbech_lad

asandwhen wrote:

"property kindergaten"

This is MY opinion I am allowed to have my own opinion - just because I dont agree with you doesnt make me wrong does it?

Yes, but opinions can be wrong. E.g. it could be my opinion that the moon is made of cheese, but it would be wrong.

My opinion is that you are disregarding momentum. Once prices start falling, then FTB's stop buying, because why not wait until prices get even cheaper? That is what happened in Japan (prices fell for 14 years)