Your views on locking in Unit Trust gains please

cloud_dog

Pete80, I too did a bit of 'sell in May and go away' last year (approx 50%), and as you say it didn't quite work out but I'm sure we still managed tomake lots of paper profits.

Re this year, yes I feel there is more downside than upside risk. Having said that I'm not sure when things may change, it may be imminent or it may be in a few months.

Additionally, it might be that as you have a significant emerging markets/ resource exposre these stand up better than the general stock market.

I also went through the Tech boom/bust and it has changed my investment style, i.e. I look to protect my gains rather than try to maximise my gains.

What I would say is that you probably need to consider an slight alternative to the in or out position, and that is to look to reduce your stocks exposure as we move forward, i.e. reduce it by 10% every so often. Obviously the timing for this and the size of reduction is down to yourself.

cloud_dog

bendix

cloud_dog wrote: »

Pete80, I too did a bit of 'sell in May and go away' last year (approx 50%), and as you say it didn't quite work out but I'm sure we still managed tomake lots of paper profits.

Re this year, yes I feel there is more downside than upside risk. Having said that I'm not sure when things may change, it may be imminent or it may be in a few months.

Additionally, it might be that as you have a significant emerging markets/ resource exposre these stand up better than the general stock market.

I also went through the Tech boom/bust and it has changed my investment style, i.e. I look to protect my gains rather than try to maximise my gains.

What I would say is that you probably need to consider an slight alternative to the in or out position, and that is to look to reduce your stocks exposure as we move forward, i.e. reduce it by 10% every so often. Obviously the timing for this and the size of reduction is down to yourself.

cloud_dog

So . . . . to recap . . . you don't know, either?

artha

pete80 wrote: »

Hi all,

I re-started some regular monthly UT/OEIC investments back in October 2008 and threw in a little extra lump sum in late March 2009.

Have now accumulated £33k in HL Vantage and was thinking about pulling this out in May and re-investing the lot over a period of say 6 to 9 months, also keeping up my normal monthly payments.

I pulled out some in June last year (and did not reinvest any until December) and of course missed some nice potential gains with the large rally that occurred. It looks to me that this rally could now be running out of steam, just wanted your views folks on whether considering that point, if you would do as I mentioned in the second paragraph or just sit on the fence and go with the flow. I intend to keep up my monthly savings for the next 10 years, I have got used to spread betting but now don't have too much time to devote to that these days.

Thanks in advance for your opinions, cheers

Not sure I see the sense in your strategy

As a relatively new active investor (since march 2009) I've put a lot of money into a fairly aggressive stance over the last 12 months and seen a lot more gains from market rise (and to some extent the weakness of the pound) than I was anticipating. I realise that this rate of increase can't go on indefinitely and various commentators (who I assume have a wealth of experience) seem to have a negative outlook for 2010. Time will tell.

I also think it's time for me to try and protect some gains and take a more cautious outlook. My approach has been to start switching some gains from my more volatile funds (overseas + commodities) into the lower volatility bond funds that I already hold e.g Aegon high yield/Invesco Perp monthly income+/tactical bond/distribution. Although I might miss out on some growth I will have a buffer set of funds that, in the event of a market drop and buying opportunities, could be sold to re-buy into more volatile funds. I take this stance as I do not want to put any more money into the market over the next year. I realise that this might not be a strategy for some long term growth investors and I'm not recommending it for you, it perhaps gives you some food for thought on how you proceed.

cloud_dog

bendix wrote: »

So . . . . to recap . . . you don't know, either?

Its not about 'knowing'; thats a ridiculous, naieve, or intellectual stance to take.

Its about trying to assess the possibilities with whatever information you can gleam from different sources, and to make a judgement call you are comfortable with; the OP only solicited views not absolutes.

I'd give up on the probono work if I was you I don't think your heart is in it

pete80

cloud_dog wrote: »

Pete80, I too did a bit of 'sell in May and go away' last year (approx 50%), and as you say it didn't quite work out but I'm sure we still managed tomake lots of paper profits.

Re this year, yes I feel there is more downside than upside risk. Having said that I'm not sure when things may change, it may be imminent or it may be in a few months.

Additionally, it might be that as you have a significant emerging markets/ resource exposre these stand up better than the general stock market.

I also went through the Tech boom/bust and it has changed my investment style, i.e. I look to protect my gains rather than try to maximise my gains.

What I would say is that you probably need to consider an slight alternative to the in or out position, and that is to look to reduce your stocks exposure as we move forward, i.e. reduce it by 10% every so often. Obviously the timing for this and the size of reduction is down to yourself.

cloud_dog

Thanks cloud_dog for your welcome input and you have some good years of experience there too.

I had a good run until end of 1999 and then pulled out my grand total of £27k in Unit Trusts at that time and bought a BTL, so had a spot of luck/good timing there and also when I sold up the BTL house plus my own along with my equity holding and left it all on deposit in US Dollar accounts till October 2008 when I started to reinvest on the monthly basis. I know I will probably never see those sort of returns again in my lifetime and I do like to take gains even though sometimes too early. I got into this habit with spread betting and I find it difficult to leave even my long term investments alone. Maybe we won't see another disastrous decade for equities for quite a while, your idea of a partial withdrawal every so often sounds good and I recall reading that in an investment book some few years ago.

Thanks again and good luck with your investing too

StevieJ

Not sure how the approach of Pete is any different to the often given advice to feed money into the market on a monthly basis rather than one lump sum, to reduce risk, especially if he feels a correction may be in the air ( may being the operative word).

bendix

cloud_dog wrote: »

Its not about 'knowing'; thats a ridiculous, naieve, or intellectual stance to take.

Its about trying to assess the possibilities with whatever information you can gleam from different sources, and to make a judgement call you are comfortable with; the OP only solicited views not absolutes.

I'd give up on the probono work if I was you I don't think your heart is in it

You're quite right. So - putting absolutes such as 'we don't know' to one side - I shall assess all the evidence, including historical trends, current economic outlook, global capital flows, the geopolitical environment and corporate outlooks and offer my learned view.

And that is that the markets might fall although, on the other hand, they might rise.

Were those views any more helpful than my absolute 'i don't know'? They felt like they were.

Now, if other posters could offer their own perspectives and views, the OP can then build up a good overall picture.

Linton

bendix wrote: »

You're quite right. So - putting absolutes such as 'we don't know' to one side - I shall assess all the evidence, including historical trends, current economic outlook, global capital flows, the geopolitical environment and corporate outlooks and offer my learned view.

And that is that the markets might fall although, on the other hand, they might rise.

Were those views any more helpful than my absolute 'i don't know'? They felt like they were.

Now, if other posters could offer their own perspectives and views, the OP can then build up a good overall picture.

Agree with Bendix here. I have no idea whether prices will be higher or lower in the summer. More to the point I dont care.

The reason is that investing is for the long term. Whether prices will be higher or lower in 5 or 10 years is much more interesting - and on balance I dare to offer my opinion that many will probably be higher.

The best you can do is to invest in a wide range of sectors, and redistribute from those sectors that do unusually well into those that currently dont, but you feel might.

IMO trying to time the market is a mug's gane - you will lose overall.

pete80

Linton wrote: »

Agree with Bendix here. I have no idea whether prices will be higher or lower in the summer. More to the point I dont care.

The reason is that investing is for the long term. Whether prices will be higher or lower in 5 or 10 years is much more interesting - and on balance I dare to offer my opinion that many will probably be higher.

The best you can do is to invest in a wide range of sectors, and redistribute from those sectors that do unusually well into those that currently dont, but you feel might.

IMO trying to time the market is a mug's gane - you will lose overall.

Linton,

I know that it is only a guessing game with the markets but in Jan 2000 I had my total holdings in Fleming Asian Investment trust warrants and they had almost tripled in less than a year. Subsequently took the gain and reinvested in property, I must admit the main reason for selling was that there were so many warnings about the boom in shares that analysts thought were unsustainable. I mis-timed the market on the way back in and missed some of the gain but still did well till I sold up the houses & stocks and deposited the proceeds into US Dollar accounts. That timing was perfect and has given me a handsome gain so sorry I have not lost overall.

I now hold my cash in 3 different currencies including the country I live in and 2 countries I visit. This reduces my risk as I do currency trades when the time is right (eg to take a profit).

My main reason for this possible strategy was to take my profits and effectively have another gamble by dripping the proceeds back in over 9 months. yes by trying to time the market. Sorry but I can see the reasons why people stay invested for many years but I have this gambling streak in me. If I lost say 25% of that amount it is going to finish me, just learn me a lesson.

I may even do as cloud_dog suggested and pull out a certain percentage and rebase but time will tell, gotta see what happens to Gordon yet!

Cheers

cloud_dog

bendix wrote: »

You're quite right. So - putting absolutes such as 'we don't know' to one side - I shall assess all the evidence, including historical trends, current economic outlook, global capital flows, the geopolitical environment and corporate outlooks and offer my learned view.

And that is that the markets might fall although, on the other hand, they might rise.

Were those views any more helpful than my absolute 'i don't know'? They felt like they were.

Now, if other posters could offer their own perspectives and views, the OP can then build up a good overall picture.

The point bendix, is that you've said the words but.... you haven't done what you said, you've merely come back with a condescending irrelevant post.

We need an 'ignore' button on MSE.