The property boom is well underway now.

Harry_Powell

Thrugelmir wrote: »

At 25, you are basing your view on a limited time frame. You will witness more than a correction in the medium term, in many respects a fundamental rebasing of house prices.

True, though even in my short lifetime I've seen the near collapse of the entire global banking system, the fall of one of the world's largest stockbrokers, the nationalisation of several banks, one of the deepest and longest recessions in history, a house price correction of 25% (in some regions and sectors), a major crash of the stockmarket. And yet, the sky is still above us and the sun still shines.

What more needs to happen in order for your armageddon scenarios to play out?

kabayiri

It's hard to make predictions with any accuracy as Conrad makes.

The effects of recession have yet to be felt by many people. But they will. We know this. There will be a contraction in employment in certain sectors, and a general increase in the cost of living.

This should place pressure on the housing market.

But then, I genuinely agree that people with cash in bank are fed up with the returns on offer. The horrendous drop in annuity rates on pensions doesn't inspire confidence in the pension market. Property investment is still holding up to some extent, and will attract some of this money.

It could be a risky strategy in the short/mid term.

Davesnave

Harry_Powell wrote: »

the sky is still above us and the sun still shines.

What more needs to happen in order for your armageddon scenarios to play out?

Err...continued upward pressure on food, water and sources of energy mainly, coupled with millions more people in other parts of the world wanting a larger slice of the action. Put this against a backdrop of climate change, and there is more sense in believing that the future will not be like the recent past than in imagining it will soon be 'business as usual' within UK Plc.

Harry_Powell

Davesnave wrote: »

Err...continued upward pressure on food, water and sources of energy mainly, coupled with millions more people in other parts of the world wanting a larger slice of the action. Put this against a backdrop of climate change, and there is more sense in believing that the future will not be like the recent past than in imagining it will soon be 'business as usual' within UK Plc.

It's already business as usual within UK plc for most people. I'm not sure how water & food shortages in the Third World will impact house prices in Hayes (where I live). It has never impacted us in the past and I doubt it will in the future. Those countries with developed and stable economies will always prosper better than those with corrupt governments or dictators, with adverse climate conditions and unstable economies.

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

True, though even in my short lifetime I've seen the near collapse of the entire global banking system, the fall of one of the world's largest stockbrokers, the nationalisation of several banks, one of the deepest and longest recessions in history, a house price correction of 25% (in some regions and sectors), a major crash of the stockmarket. And yet, the sky is still above us and the sun still shines.

What more needs to happen in order for your armageddon scenarios to play out?

What happens if we do not get the growth predicted in the next few years? The government has not explained how it will halve the debt in 4 years and we know the PIIGS are not in a great state. Few are predicting growth as the government is predicting.

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

What happens if we do not get the growth predicted in the next few years? The government has not explained how it will halve the debt in 4 years and we know the PIIGS are not in a great state. Few are predicting growth as the government is predicting.

Then we'll have stagnation, but the world will continue to rotate and we'll all just get on with our lives. 1M British men were killed in the Great War and yet life went on, compared with that catastrophe anything that happens today is small beer.

You can't put your life on hold and live in fear because a few Chickin' littles are running around hysterically announcing that the sky is going to fall in.

Rinoa

Harry_Powell wrote: »

You can't put your life on hold and live in fear because a few Chickin' littles are running around hysterically announcing that the sky is going to fall in.

:rotfl: ...........

Davesnave

Harry_Powell wrote: »

You can't put your life on hold and live in fear because a few Chickin' littles are running around hysterically announcing that the sky is going to fall in.

If we are on a poultry theme now, I could quote the story of the Little Red Hen......

I don't want to be branded as hysterical, just someone who thinks it might be better to plan for a different future. On a practical level, that might mean becoming involved in British food production or installing photovoltaic cells on the roof.

That's hardly living in fear, but it might be more use than putting cash into BTL.

Thrugelmir

Harry_Powell wrote: »

True, though even in my short lifetime I've seen the near collapse of the entire global banking system, the fall of one of the world's largest stockbrokers, the nationalisation of several banks, one of the deepest and longest recessions in history, a house price correction of 25% (in some regions and sectors), a major crash of the stockmarket. And yet, the sky is still above us and the sun still shines.

What more needs to happen in order for your armageddon scenarios to play out?

New kids on the block. Think they've seen it all and know it all.

Who said armageddon was on the horizon? I certainly don't take that view.

Everything moves in cycles, up and down.

Davesnave

Harry_Powell wrote: »

It's already business as usual within UK plc for most people. I'm not sure how water & food shortages in the Third World will impact house prices in Hayes (where I live). It has never impacted us in the past and I doubt it will in the future. Those countries with developed and stable economies will always prosper better than those with corrupt governments or dictators, with adverse climate conditions and unstable economies.

Not sure what 'Third World' countries, presumably like those in Africa, have to do with it. They have already been exploited once and judging by the way the Chinese and other major powers are buying up their land and resources, they are about to be done over again.

Some nations clearly believe the future will be radically different, but the view from Hayes may not reveal this yet.