House prices could fall for several years

nembot

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

In your opinion, are there 24 million people looking to buy property?
That's an awful amount of people

Of course, in fact probably many more than that and they would all like lower prices.

You may notice my post didn't include any particular boundaries, such as "in the UK".

So yes, I stand by my statement... :beer:

PasturesNew

If I had a job and knew which area I needed to be in .... then if I could find the right house at the right price, I'd buy.

But as none of that's coming together I'll just continue to browse my little list of housey sites daily (seems to be creeping up, I think I'm looking at houses for sale about 8 hours/day now).

Just to see what I could buy, in 101 places, if I were to get a job in any one of those areas.... just looking.... just looking.

Can't rent, can't buy .... until I know where there's a job. Nearly actually applied for one this week too

PasturesNew

Emy1501 wrote: »

I have always been asked where my deposit has come from when I have bought. I suspect for money laundering purposes the need to know is even more important now.

I wonder how many Doctors and pharmacists state quite simply "drugs".

chucky

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Well, just the small matter of there still being a crash to come. A market inflated by total madness (loose lending, BTL, people) has yet to get back in touch with reality. And as it approaches the right level it will overshoot on the correction - because that's what happens.

Few years to go yet Hamish before it's over I reckon.

this is where i agree with you but not your timing

the next HPC will be the tougher one, unless something important happens it won't be here for a few years - this has just been a correction where the last year was correcting the previous drops in 2008 that went too far.

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A poster that is objective enough to discuss what will probably happen, rather than what they want to happen, is sure to get banned over there [HPC].

Most of the remaining bears on here, and there, are now just wishful thinkers. The ones with a clue already bought, including hpc mods !!!!!!....

There is no prospect of the previous lows being breached. The bottom was in Feb 2009, and whatever fluctuations that may occur over the next year or two will still be within the context of an upwards trend.

The crash is over.

Nothing left to argue about really.

Your posts are worthless, Hamish.

We're all capable of: (1) extrapolating latter-part 2009 house price inflation; (2) noting low house building rates; and (3) citing conspiracy theories along the lines of "government will never allow it to happen". And none of these lines of thinking, taken alone, are crackpot, far from it, but your blindness to the many factors that go in the other direction [all of which boil down to the prices themselves, relative to any of incomes, rents, recent past UK prices, overseas prices, and so on] smacks of self-delusion.

Given your transparently very modest level of financial/economic education, the arrogance with which you presume to know better than the Bank of England, Capital Economics, the Economist magazine, and so on is breathtaking.

Keep it up, anyway. I'm sure your army of 'fans' is ever-expanding...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

the arrogance with which you presume to know better than the Bank of England, Capital Economics, the Economist magazine, and so on is breathtaking.
..

:rotfl:

I would normally ignore such blatant trolling by a disgruntled HPC-er....

But I can't resist point out that Capital Economics are even more of a laughing stock of the house price prediction world than HPC..... And that takes real work.

Only a dolt would cite CE as a credible source on house price predictions. So that tells us everything we need to know about your complete lack of any economic/financial understanding.

For reference purposes.........

One more time with the Capital Economics house price forecast history.....

The evidence says they have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 12 months)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.

So if they are predicting a 10% fall, it's safe to say prices will be rising.

Cannon_Fodder

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The crash is over.

Nothing left to argue about really.

Goodbye, then.

Taxi for Hamish.

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

I would normally ignore such blatant trolling by a disgruntled HPC-er....

But I can't resist point out that Capital Economics are even more of a laughing stock of the house price prediction world than HPC..... And that takes real work.

Only a dolt would cite CE as a credible source on house price predictions. So that tells us everything we need to know about your complete lack of any economic/financial understanding...

Oh, Hamish...

Yes, of course their forecasts were wrong previously but [ignoring the quality and quantity of other forecasters who agree with them based on today's figures] it's still quite a leap from to suggesting your own [with respect] modest credentials are as a result more impressive than theirs.

From what I've seen of your posts your own forecasting methods are roughly on a par with those of the simpleton who keeps a record of previous lottery numbers in the belief that those numbers which have come up most often in the past will be drawn most often in the future - a few quarters of negative Haliwide numbers and you're grudgingly predicting further falls, grizzling about the poor pensioners having their retirement savings eroded, a few quarters of positive Haliwide numbers and you're roaring that, "There is no prospect of the previous lows being breached" and that there is, "Nothing left to argue about really". You might occasionally cherry pick a few bits of information that coincide with your blatant desire for a return to rampant house price inflation but will never even attempt to sensibly discuss any of the elephants in the room [affordability, low yields, unemployment] or speculate as to whether these are more likely to outweigh or be outweighed by those factors that point in the other direction [low interest rates, low housebuilding].

But I don't really think you believe your forecasts with any certainty, not really. If you were that confident you could very easily withdraw equity from your main residence and use it to fill your boots with more property [a sure-fire moneyspinner according to you], rather than frittering away your time haunting internet message boards trying to scaremonger any would-be buyers into jumping in feet-first with forecasts of rampant future house price inflation.

Time will tell who is right. Obviously.

carolt

Given that Hamish bought at bot the previous peaks, by his own admission, I'm not quite clear why he thinks he's going to be right this time either.

Hamish? We'd be interested to know why you do think that.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Given that Hamish bought at bot the previous peaks, by his own admission, I'm not quite clear why he thinks he's going to be right this time either.

Hamish? We'd be interested to know why you do think that.

I don't believe either of Hamish's properties are valued at less than what he bought them for.
Surely better to have invested and see the value rise than not buy and see your money passed away in rent.