Debate House Prices


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Tea versus House Prices

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Post 1,000 from me so a little fun. Blame StevieJ for this. I've just plugged the prior calcs into Excel and ripped the data from public sources*.

You need fewer kilograms of tea to buy the average UK residential property now than at the end of 2001 - shocka!:

hpi01tea.png

The graph going back to 1991 doesn't impart much more info. 1991-2001 saw the amount of tea required to buy a normal homestead bouncing around the 35,000kg to 55,000kg mark:

hpitea.png

Since the collapse of Northern Rock house prices have retained their downward trend when priced in tea:

hpinrktea.png

The uptick from nominal pricing (the red line - left hand scale represents both £ Sterling and KG of tea) is missing from tea pricing. This is mainly thanks to the Sterling devaluation that transcends 1967, 1976 and 1992.

hpinomtea.png

UK house prices peaked a lot earlier if exchanged with oil and gold:

hpigo.png

Left hand scale is barrels of oil, right hand scale is ounces of gold.

Black line shows the number of barrels of oil required to buy the average property, orange line shows ounces of gold needed to buy.

Note for 70% fall advocates: the ounces of gold required to buy has fallen 69.3% between July 2004 and February 2010.

Finally in US dollars (since it took all of 10 seconds), note how recent falls and rise are sharp thanks to exchange rate gyrations:

hpiusd.png

*Data sources:
Nationwide Post '91 UK Monthly index.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm


IMF commodity price series for Tea (Kenya auctions for Best Pekoe Fannings Tea (PTEA)) and Oil (UK Brent light blend (POILBRE)).

http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp


Above commodities converted from dollars into sterling using the Bank of England USD against Slg end month measure (XUMLUSS). Gold price obtained from the BoE's end of month price in Sterling (XUMLGPS).

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/



Thanks to all on the Debate House Prices and Economy board for the entertainment. Especially the crazies who: believe in peak-oil, worship Gordon Brown & their nanny knows best acolytes, 2012 doom-mongers, property rampers, Naomi Klein krazies, deflationists and Libertarians. Oh, that is everyone ;)
"The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.
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Comments

  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    How's Coffee fairing?
  • JimmyTheWig
    JimmyTheWig Posts: 12,199 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    So the price of an average house in tea has halved in less than 3 years?
    Blimey!
    Does that mean that the price of tea has almost doubled?
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Does that mean anyone on HPC should have purchased Typhoo instead of gold?
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Snap up those commodities.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    StevieJ wrote: »
    Snap up those commodities.

    I have just had a cup of tea:( Is there a second hand teabag market?
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    i find that Red Bush tea is much better than PG Tips
  • JonnyBravo
    JonnyBravo Posts: 4,103 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    Mr_Mumble wrote: »
    .......exchange rate gyrations:

    Ah yes, gyrations, the curse of the capitalist world.

    :rotfl:
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    chucky wrote: »
    i find that Red Bush tea is much better than PG Tips

    http://www.makemineabuilders.co.uk/

    or
    Tetley extra strong.

    Not sure how localised this saying is but "Bulls Blood"
  • Mr_Mumble
    Mr_Mumble Posts: 1,758 Forumite
    Really2 wrote: »
    How's Coffee fairing?
    South American or African? :D, (my next project was to plug the prices for all 48 commodities measured by the IMF into googleapps and a widget.. perhaps for post no.2000).
    So the price of an average house in tea has halved in less than 3 years?
    Blimey!
    Does that mean that the price of tea has almost doubled?
    Tea prices have more than doubled, £0.96 for a kilogram in May '07 compared to £2.09 in Feb '10. Tea has risen 67% in US dollars ($1.90 to $3.18).
    "The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.
  • carolt
    carolt Posts: 8,531 Forumite
    Are you very under-employed, OP?

    Whilst mildly entertaining, undoubtedly, it seems a little bit of a waste of time...?
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