Debate House Prices


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MSE News: Upturn in number of homes for sale, surveyors say

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13

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  • DaddyBear
    DaddyBear Posts: 1,208 Forumite
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    Cleaver wrote: »
    I only ever hear this type of language on this forum. It's really, really odd. It's like you're analysing a volatile mining stock rather than people's homes.

    Real people, in the real world do not "get out whilst they still can" when it comes to housing. They own a house because they need somewhere to live, somewhere to keep their kids and somewhere that's generally close to work.

    Do you honestly ever meet people in real life who say things along the line of: "Right, I'm selling this house whilst I still can. Come on wifey and three kids, let's sell the home we've been in for 8 years that we really like because of a small chance that the value will drop considerably. We'll move in with my Mum.". I've not heard talk along these lines.

    That is a very idealistic view of the housing Market and one I wish existed. Unfortunately it's not the Britain that labour has created. An increasingly large proportion of people see the housing Market as a way of making free money.

    There will be BTLers and second homers who are looking for a good time to exit the Market. That time is now, but due to the low levels of demand, only a select few will manage to get out in time. The property party is over and it's the sensible ones who are looking for a way out. They don't want to be left standing up when the music stops.
  • SPAMISH_MCTAVISH
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    can we get the opinion of the guy who talk about supply and demand ?
    :beer:
  • LydiaJ
    LydiaJ Posts: 8,083 Forumite
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    edited 10 March 2010 at 2:44AM
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    I know several people who are letting out properties that they could have sold but didn't because they didn't think they'd get good prices for them. There's somebody who's letting out the house she inherited from her mum, somebody else who's letting what used to be her own house and living in the house she's inherited, and somebody else who's moved to a new job and is renting here (and looking to buy) but hasn't sold their house in their old town. Not all of them have become landlords because they actually want to become landlords - many of them want to get a good price for the property they're not living in, and didn't consider 2008-9 a good time to sell. If these people become convinced that the market is going to drop further, they are the people who will decide to sell "to get out when they can". At the moment, none of the accidental landlords whom I know are thinking anything like that. They are all still saying things like "I might sell in a couple of years when prices are back to normal."

    I agree with Cleaver, though, that very few people would take that attitude to their main home.
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  • zappahey
    zappahey Posts: 2,252 Forumite
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    DaddyBear wrote: »
    That is a very idealistic view of the housing Market and one I wish existed. Unfortunately it's not the Britain that labour has created. An increasingly large proportion of people see the housing Market as a way of making free money.

    That mindset was in place long before Labour came to power.
    What goes around - comes around
  • abaxas
    abaxas Posts: 4,141 Forumite
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    zappahey wrote: »
    That mindset was in place long before Labour came to power.

    Maybe this is exactly what is wrong, the connection between hard work and reward is no longer there. Hence, we are fraked.
  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,984 Forumite
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    DaddyBear wrote: »
    That is a very idealistic view of the housing Market and one I wish existed. Unfortunately it's not the Britain that labour has created. An increasingly large proportion of people see the housing Market as a way of making free money.

    Honestly, they don't. Go and knock on 100 random home-owner's doors in your town or city. I would bet good money that 90 of them are just people who like and live in their house. Eithe they've paid off the mortgage or are just happily doing so. No interest in speculating on houses prices to make money (although they might be interested to trade up etc.) but don't own any other house and have no need to "get out whilst they can". Maybe 5 people will be people in trouble. Either stretched themselves with mortgages they couldn't afford, including FTBers who maybe bought around 2006 / 7, people who have lost their job etc. The other 5 might be people with second homes or BTL properties. Of this 5, probably 4 of them will be fine and happily managing their second properties, maybe 1 will be in trouble. I'm sure someone will come along with the stats (Hamish? Chucky? ISTL? Graham?) but I reckon it's somewhere around that ballpark. 80%, 90%, 75%, whatever the number, the majority of people are just contented, happy, financially okay homeowners.

    Also, I don't think Labour creates a society. A society is responsible for its' own behaviour. There were plenty of people making 'free money' in the 80's when the Torys were in and they'll be plenty of people making 'free money' in the next decade whatever the government. Stuff booms and busts, different things come in to vogue. It probably won't be property again, but it will be something. Seems to be human nature to me, not the influence of a government.
    DaddyBear wrote: »
    There will be BTLers and second homers who are looking for a good time to exit the Market. That time is now, but due to the low levels of demand, only a select few will manage to get out in time. The property party is over and it's the sensible ones who are looking for a way out. They don't want to be left standing up when the music stops.

    This is purely your opinion. I think if you went out and spent your entire life savings on a BTL property between 2005 an now, and stretched yourself to do so, I personally don't think you made a very sensible decision and I don't think you'll really see any major increases in capital value for a good few years. On the other hand, if you have a load of cash and you have it tied up in a variety of assets and a propety makes up a percentage of that, then you just hold on for the long term don't you? All my pure opinion of course.

    Lastly, lines like "the propety party is over" and people "don't want to be left standing up when the music stop" don't mean anything. They're just the yin to the yang that is lines like "don't miss the boat" and "you can't lose with property". All are empty, pointless slogans that don't reflect any real view of what's going on.
  • HammerSmashedFace
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    It seems that some people now think that this is the time that they are likely to get the most for their house, hence the increase in property on the market. Unfortunately this is not the case in the majority of the country, and ironically the very increase in properties for sale will drive down the price.

    I've said a thousand times, the money no longer exists to support the market that some people believe is going to return, the simple facts are, if you're lucky you will get single digit falls from peak and sell relatively quickly, if you're unlucky you could reduce 20% or more and still the house will languish on the market for years.

    These are the best case scenerios for now, as time goes on these 'selling scenerios' will get worse.
  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,984 Forumite
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    It seems that some people now think that this is the time that they are likely to get the most for their house, hence the increase in property on the market. Unfortunately this is not the case in the majority of the country, and ironically the very increase in properties for sale will drive down the price.

    I've said a thousand times, the money no longer exists to support the market that some people believe is going to return, the simple facts are, if you're lucky you will get single digit falls from peak and sell relatively quickly, if you're unlucky you could reduce 20% or more and still the house will languish on the market for years.

    These are the best case scenerios for now, as time goes on these 'selling scenerios' will get worse.

    I love how you're so sure about everything. I'm being sincere, I actually admire your complete confidence in your opinion, as it's something I don't have about myself. There's been three years of property prices being completely mental, unpredictable, stupid and just plain perplexing. And about a million future variables are out there: many ways in which the economy could head, societal shifts, cultural changes, a variety of political scenarios that could play out, Europe, Asia and America that all influence us... etc. etc. etc,

    And yet you sound 100% sure what's going to happen. I wish I had your skills, because I'm clueless over here as to what will happen. Ah well.
  • lostinrates
    lostinrates Posts: 55,283 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
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    OK, my neighbours recently put their house on the market, thier main home, because the market was better than last year and better than they think the rest of this year will be.

    To be fair, the didn't say ''the end is nigh'', but they do feel that cash is now more important than the size of home. They feel a bit..rushed...because they do feel this is a ''window''. I don't know whether this counts, but I certainly feel its an example, whether representative or not I can't say, but it is an example of people timing thier main home sale to fit in with fears about the market at large.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
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    OK, my neighbours recently put their house on the market, thier main home, because the market was better than last year and better than they think the rest of this year will be.

    To be fair, the didn't say ''the end is nigh'', but they do feel that cash is now more important than the size of home. They feel a bit..rushed...because they do feel this is a ''window''. I don't know whether this counts, but I certainly feel its an example, whether representative or not I can't say, but it is an example of people timing thier main home sale to fit in with fears about the market at large.

    So doing exactly what I would say I would be inclined to do on the previous page.

    Getting your house on the market while the opportunity is there and "getting in there" isn't all about money.

    Personally I think there is real fear out there in potential, normal (i..e outside of this forum, just watch the news and thats about it) sellers. Enough fear to make people like your neighbours jump now.
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