Should i put my savings into bricks and mortar?

carpy

i typed out a big post for this thread but when i hit submit it was very slow and eventually came up with cannot display page.

tried refreshing and using browser back etc. but it had gone.

any idea if i can retrieve it?
is it lurking somewhere on my computer?

codetown

stphnstevey wrote:

Ok, so property prices might not be the lowest they have ever been, but there not the highest they have ever been either.

Check out the plot on top of:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

I am not saying buying is wrong. Everyone decides on his own circumstances (also I am undecided myself wheter to buy or not at present).
But data is data and let's try to be precise when we pass them on.

Prices on average nationwide *are* the highest they have ever been both in absolute values and in terms of cost/earnings ratios. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price-to-earnings-ratio.php

This is something that really worries me....

BobProperty

"I know nothing about options! I also don't think you can gear them as benificially as property? "
Case proven m'lud.

"This is were property far exceeds shares."
No it doesn't. One investment is geared the other isn't.

"Not everyone got repossessed, in fact the majority didn't."
I don't know what proportion of the people repossessed in the early nineties had bought in the previous few years, but I suspect it was disproportionately balanced towards those who had. You say property is the best investment in the long term, so where did they go wrong? Or what went wrong for them?

"The fact is NO ONE (not even you Bob) knows what the future will bring."
So how come you know that "....over the long term house prices DO rise (as I have been saying in the posts below for a while now......).

and yes, so does gold and shares, but not at the same return on investment (ROI)."

F_T_Buyer

carpy wrote:

i typed out a big post for this thread but when i hit submit it was very slow and eventually came up with cannot display page.

tried refreshing and using browser back etc. but it had gone.

any idea if i can retrieve it?
is it lurking somewhere on my computer?

Unfortunately it has been lost. If it happens again trying clicking 'back' (if it does reappear copy it to note pad before pressing submit incase it fails again). I also hate it when that happens.

Any chance of retyping it?

F_T_Buyer

BobProperty wrote:

"Not everyone got repossessed, in fact the majority didn't."

I don't know what proportion of the people repossessed in the early nineties had bought in the previous few years, but I suspect it was disproportionately balanced towards those who had. You say property is the best investment in the long term, so where did they go wrong? Or what went wrong for them?

What i'd like to know is what percentage of people who bought at the peak lost their homes. Also, what was the typical mortgage multiple of the people who lost their homes.

What i'm saying is, sure, most people didn't lose their homes. Like now most people don't care if prices rise or not, their mortgage is tiny for them. But it would be interesting to compare it to today, so we can come up with a statistic saying 50% of those who borrow x times their salary or more lost their homes.

BobProperty

F_T_Buyer wrote:

What i'd like to know is what percentage of people who bought at the peak lost their homes. Also, what was the typical mortgage multiple of the people who lost their homes.

What i'm saying is, sure, most people didn't lose their homes. Like now most people don't care if prices rise or not, their mortgage is tiny for them. But it would be interesting to compare it to today, so we can come up with a statistic saying 50% of those who borrow x times their salary or more lost their homes.

I agree this would be interesting. I'm surprised one of the housepricecrash forums hasn't got it.

It would be tempting to say "New customers only".

BobProperty

CML website has some stats but I'm still looking and trying to interpret them. One thing so far is the "other" mortgages in the early 90's at a high level. And there's a massive amount of equity withdrawal recently.
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics
Right - final thoughts - see table ML4 - income multiplier doesn't appear to be a factor it looks like affordability is the thing, look at the "interest payments as % of income" which has only been over 20% from Q3 1988 to Q3 1991.

carpy

i can't remember exactly what i typed but it was along of the lines of......

when will be the best time to buy (a home) between now and 2010 when my mum retires? i know (how long is a piece of string) but i have no idea of the property market other than what i read/hear in the papers/on the news etc. some say there will be a crash, others that they will increase by a further 50%, others that they will just rise steadily???

i'm sure others on here have a better idea than me, and although no-one knows for sure, what is the most likely outcome in your opinion?

i'm almost priced out of the market now but what position will i be in in 4 years time?!?!?

i'm assuming prices will probably increase further (by how much i've no idea), and the suggestion is interest rates could be on the way up too.

i'm pretty sure by modest salary will only increase by 2ish% a year over the next few years and my savings will obviously increase but will this be outstripped by price/interest rises???

that's what i'm worried about, do i jump on the bandwagon quick, before it's too late or hope prices/rates don't change much by 2010 or the best scenario (for me but not for millions of others!!) a crash!!!

HELP!!!!!

stphnstevey

carpy wrote:

i can't remember exactly what i typed but it was along of the lines of......

when will be the best time to buy (a home) between now and 2010 when my mum retires? i know (how long is a piece of string) but i have no idea of the property market other than what i read/hear in the papers/on the news etc. some say there will be a crash, others that they will increase by a further 50%, others that they will just rise steadily???

i'm sure others on here have a better idea than me, and although no-one knows for sure, what is the most likely outcome in your opinion?

NOBODY on here (this is important, so I'll repeat it - NOBODY on here) knows for sure and you'll be surprised, as much as they'll try and blind you with statistics (which by picking specific statistics can back up any arguement either way), how little everyone else knows. So your not alone.

What you need to do is decide if it's the right time for YOU. Only YOU know that.

i'm almost priced out of the market now but what position will i be in in 4 years time?!?!?

You could be unable to afford the smallest of homes OR you could have taken on unmanagable debt and being reposessed. I think as long as you take out debt that is managable in the worst of circumstances OR take out insurance or a fixed/capped rate if you feel you wouldn't be able to manage in the worst circumstances AND you can afford to wait out a bad turn in the market, then you'll be fine buying.

i'm assuming prices will probably increase further (by how much i've no idea), and the suggestion is interest rates could be on the way up too.

i'm pretty sure by modest salary will only increase by 2ish% a year over the next few years and my savings will obviously increase but will this be outstripped by price/interest rises???

that's what i'm worried about, do i jump on the bandwagon quick, before it's too late or hope prices/rates don't change much by 2010 or the best scenario (for me but not for millions of others!!) a crash!!!

A crash in house prices is only bad for those that have to sell or move. Maybe you should consider how long you are likely to live in your house and then consider what YOU think is going to happen in that period of time.

HELP!!!!!

FaTB

carpy wrote:

i'm almost priced out of the market now but what position will i be in in 4 years time?!?!?

i'm assuming prices will probably increase further (by how much i've no idea), and the suggestion is interest rates could be on the way up too.

Well if IR's do go up, you will be making more on your savings, and house prices may be going down.

So in 4 years time you may be in a much better position.

But it all depends on how much IR's,energy,taxes, unemployment go up, and how long you can wait or want to wait.

There are no guarantees in life, but i'm in no rush, and i'm gonna wait it out, with my deposit invested elsewhere.