Mortgage approvals drop sharply

Graham_Devon

Figures revealing a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in January have confirmed that the UK housing market made a slow start to the year.
The Bank of England said that the number of home loans approved for house purchases in January fell by 17% compared with the previous month.
The 48,198 approvals was the lowest number for eight months, but still 43% higher than a year ago earlier.
Experts have said the end of the stamp duty holiday was behind the drop.

Not gonna comment too much. It's not good. But it's not unexpected considering the artificial economy seems to be coming to an end.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not gonna comment too much. It's not good. But it's not unexpected considering the artificial economy seems to be coming to an end.

mmmm 43% higher than the same time last year after the coldest winters for nearly 30 years.

Not that bad Graham Really considering the stamp duty drop also.

I personally would have thought Jan would have been a hell of a lot lower considering.

But the forecast was for 49K, so 802 mortgages below forecast in neither here or there really graham.

Why is any recover artificial Graham? are we in the matrix and this is not reality?:D
PS being higher than last year does not indicate a downturn IMHO.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Why is any recover artificial Graham? are we in the matrix and this is not reality?:D
PS being higher than last year does not indicate a downturn IMHO.

Experts have said the end of the stamp duty holiday was behind the drop.

Stimulus for a year. Artificially skews the figures, as the report has shown.

Not going to get into the whole "40% higher than the lowest figure" stuff.

The numbers are low. Whether they are higher than an extreme low point is neither here nor there IMO, as you could simply use this argument forever.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Stimulus for a year. Artificially skews the figures, as the report has shown.

The stamp duty brake was last year, this is Mortgage approvals January 2010 no stamp duty break. So if it did "Artificially Skew the figures you would expect them to be lower than the same time last year.

Have a coffee.:rotfl:

As for the edit after.

The figures are 802 lower than expected, not really anything at all Graham. But you still manage to deduce from that this is the end of the "artificial economy"

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not gonna comment too much. It's not good. But it's not unexpected considering the artificial economy seems to be coming to an end.

Not so surprising given the weather in the UK last month.

The British economy isn't looking great IMO* but using January's figures to show anything much needs great caution.

You may well be right and the UK economy might get really very bad. FWIW I think the chances of you being right about that happening are a lot higher than a lot of posters on here think as what is going on right now is unprecidented so amazing outcomes are more likely than usual. However, AIUI the UK pretty much stopped for a few weeks in Jan and that will have an impact on all sorts of markets.

Wait until next year and crowding out starts to hit recovery for example and then see where we are.







*Having lived abroad for 15 months now I thought I should practice my skills in understatement.

Rinoa

This data is simply a repeat of January CML gross lending and recent data suggested in the BoE's Trends in Lending, released a week or so ago.

Already discussed. Nothing new here. Move along please.



Edit~ BoE link:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2010/jan/lendind.pdf

Really2

Generali wrote: »

Not so surprising given the weather in the UK last month.

The British economy isn't looking great IMO* but using January's figures to show anything much needs great caution.

You may well be right and the UK economy might get really very bad. FWIW I think the chancesof you being right about that happening are a lot higher than a lot of posters on here think as what is going on right now is unprecidented so amazing outcomes are more likely than usual.

I think the majority on here think we are going back to the 1930's.;)

I think the line some where in the middle of the most bullish and bearish may be the more likely outcome.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

You may well be right and the UK economy might get really very bad. FWIW I think the chances of you being right about that happening are a lot higher than a lot of posters on here think as what is going on right now is unprecidented so amazing outcomes are more likely than usual. However, AIUI the UK pretty much stopped for a few weeks in Jan and that will have an impact on all sorts of markets.

I dunno, I'm stuck with where I think things are going. January may have just been a blip. But then on the other hand, we have a strong liklihood of more QE it seems. More housing market "economists", including the nationwide getting bearish on the market, all saying this wasn't sustainable....whereas last year it was.

Germany etc have all shown me what happens when stimulus ends. It creates a rush, and then leaves the market (whichever market is may be) completely dead afterwards.

I feel we are in the calm before the storm. Stimulus kind of halted, some of the stimulus programmes (VAT, stamp duty, cars) all coming to an end, and the country simply pretending everything is ok, but all waiting for the election when they know the proverbial is going to hit the fan.

Basically I cannot believe we can continue as we are.

We've had massive amounts of QE, and also extra spending. And we still can't really get anywhere.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I dunno, I'm stuck with where I think things are going. January may have just been a blip. But then on the other hand, we have a strong liklihood of more QE it seems. More housing market "economists", including the nationwide getting bearish on the market, all saying this wasn't sustainable....whereas last year it was.

Germany etc have all shown me what happens when stimulus ends. It creates a rush, and then leaves the market (whichever market is may be) completely dead afterwards.

I feel we are in the calm before the storm. Stimulus kind of halted, some of the stimulus programmes (VAT, stamp duty, cars) all coming to an end, and the country simply pretending everything is ok, but all waiting for the election when they know the proverbial is going to hit the fan.

Basically I cannot believe we can continue as we are.

We've had massive amounts of QE, and also extra spending. And we still can't really get anywhere.

Don't forget we will have years of being at the bottom. Don't get in to the trap that it has to be rise or fall in nominal terms every month, year etc etc..

Personally (and i have said this before) I think we are looking at years of stagnation. But we have still got to expect transactions to improve over time even if prices don't. A normal market (in terms of transactions) will happen sooner or later.

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

I think the majority on here think we are going back to the 1930's.;)

I think the line some where in the middle of the most bullish and bearish may be the more likely outcome.

I suspect you'll be right.

Living conditions like the 1930s (when butter was a luxury for a chunk of society for example) are a long way off. Ditto the days of easy credit with house prices and retail sales rising hand-in-hand.

Really2

Generali wrote: »

Living conditions like the 1930s (when butter was a luxury for a chunk of society for example) are a long way off. Ditto the days of easy credit with house prices and retail sales rising hand-in-hand.

It's a shame, I will never be able to buy the model A ford when it comes out again if I can't get credit.