Tory lead down to 2 points, or is it.

baileysbattlebus

whathavewedone wrote: »

I thought David Cameron's speech was very good but then I'm a real tory rather than a pretend one like Conrad, Hamish and Bernard. .

Cameron's problem is he isn't a real Tory either.

dealsearcher

The problem the Tories have is that because they are not in government they do not have access to the actual financial figures. They can only guess at the real ones. They are not helped by the party in government in that any guess they make is denigrated by the government. The party in government does have access to these figures but refuses to be clear about what they will do despite having access to the figures. They continually reply to such questions by saying that the Tories haven't got a clue.

The YouGov poll also has problems. Their report states that they only get a 35% to 50% response. So they have to use statistical analysis methods to deal with this. However that does not take into account the likely voting of people who refuse to reply to their survey. I personally, with the number of unsolicited phone calls nowadays, would be likely to tell them that I was not interested in their survey and did not want to divulge my voting intentions in any case.

So roll on the real thing and lets at least have someone new in government.

Charterhouse

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

That is asking an awful lot. The comment summarised the lack of thought and carelessness RP exhibits when he/she posts.



Do you reckon ?

I am starting to look for value in Labour odds in the second set of 100 marginals and especially Scotland.

Of course the latest polls are against a background of almost wall to wall coverage for the Labour Party against far less for the Tories (just to make it clear to the resident jester this is not due to bias but more a reflection of the respective parties profiles). Maybe as the Tories start to raise their profile more this will change. Labour appear to have gained almost exclusively from the Lib Dems with the Tories vote still within MOE of 40% where it has been for over a year.

The one interesting thing will be the effect of the Lib Dem vote in the Lab-Tory marginals. I have a feeling in some of them, certainly the ones in the second batch of 100, Labour will be able to squeeze this and hold on to some they should lose.

I think you are right about Labour in some ways. I don't think they will do as bad as was originally thought. That said I think any talk of them winning 250+ seats is overdone. Similarly I thought that the Tories winning 360+ was unlikely but I also think them coming in under about 320 is impossible.

The issue that Cameron has is that at this point the polling headlines become the narrative rather than his actual message.

One element that I found interesting of the YouGov poll was that when asked on various elements of the leaders' characters, Cameron garners a much higher "don't know" score than does Brown. People are largely more negative on Brown but more decisive. Half of Cameron's problem is that people, even his supporters, do not know what he really stands for. That, and you can't expect the Turkeys to vote for Christmas... which is basically what he is asking for by saying that cuts need to start this year.

Finally, here's a quote from the Sunday Times that I found incredible

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Cameron defied his right-wing critics who believe the party’s modernisation has gone too far. He said: “Some people say to me, ‘Play things safe; try to win by default — the government is in a mess.’ I say, ‘No. This is the Conservative party that is offering radical change. I’m doubling up on change’.”

This left me incredulous. Winning by default is EXACTLY what Cameron has been trying to do and it is starting to backfire spectacularly.

baileysbattlebus

dealsearcher wrote: »

The problem the Tories have is that because they are not in government they do not have access to the actual financial figures. They can only guess at the real ones. They are not helped by the party in government in that any guess they make is denigrated by the government. The party in government does have access to these figures but refuses to be clear about what they will do despite having access to the figures. They continually reply to such questions by saying that the Tories haven't got a clue.

The YouGov poll also has problems. Their report states that they only get a 35% to 50% response. So they have to use statistical analysis methods to deal with this. However that does not take into account the likely voting of people who refuse to reply to their survey. I personally, with the number of unsolicited phone calls nowadays, would be likely to tell them that I was not interested in their survey and did not want to divulge my voting intentions in any case.

So roll on the real thing and lets at least have someone new in government.

I think it's a lot more than not having access to the figures -

Something else is driving this.

According to everyone Labour is a dead party walking... a carp government.. divisive.. economic dunces... ruined the country... headed by a leader who is the worst prime minister this country has ever seen. The biggest debt in the developed world....

David Cameron and the Conservatives should be heading for a landslide, they should be in a similar position to Tony Blair and the Labour party in the polls in 1997, but they aren't.

Could the move to the centre have had an impact - with the "old style" Tories you knew what you were getting - with the "new style" Tories you don't.

The imposition of politically correct candidates has tones of New Labour.

It will be interesting to see how UKIP do in the election as I suspect a number of traditional Tory voters will see them as the better option.

Perhaps Call Me Dave should embrace traditional Tory values.

adr0ck

i think a lot of the problem with the torys is that they give out mixed messages

for example my local tories seem opposed to the following:

affordable housing
safe routes to schools
keeping local primary schools open

are these really tory policies?

Spartacus_Mills

adr0ck wrote: »

i think a lot of the problem with the torys is that they give out mixed messages

for example my local tories seem opposed to the following:

affordable housing
safe routes to schools
keeping local primary schools open

are these really tory policies?

Care to give us some proof to back it up ?

Of course we get garbage rhetoric from Labour claiming the Tories are aganst economic growth for opposing Labour policies and for the criminal simply because they oppose Labour policies on DNA retention and so on. It is absolute rubbish of course and the politics of idiots. I guess we have alot more to come.

adr0ck

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Care to give us some proof to back it up ?

the tories in my locality are opposing a scheme for affordable housing

part of the scheme includes road widening and providing a footway (which is on the main route to school in the village) - road is currently 4 m wide with no footway

the school is on a list of possible future closure due to falling school numbers

our local tories can't seem to get it into their heads that by building more homes in the locality this will help save the school

macaque_2

adr0ck wrote: »

i think a lot of the problem with the torys is that they give out mixed messages
for example my local tories seem opposed to the following
affordable housing
safe routes to schools
keeping local primary schools open

are these really tory policies?

I agree. The Tories have done themselves a huge diservice by forgetting their roots.

Labour set out to create a caring, inclusive, multicultural, safe, feely touchy society. It may have been a noble idea but it was unbelievably arrogant and stupid. Their missguided attempts to reengineer society have left us with a horrible mess. We are probably now the most indebted nation in the world. Our industries are crumbling by the day. Millions more people of working now tune in to day time television. The chaotic immigration policy has led to the growth of ever larger ethnic ghettos and growing resentment between different communities. The state has undermined parents and teachers etc etc

Maggie Thatcher's treatment of the miners has gone into folklore as a historical crime. All she did was called time on state subsidies for coal. She even offered to give the mines to the miners (and some took up the offer). Compare that with New Labour who allowed the most efficient steel company in the world to be bought out by the Indians and then closed down. Or how about all the pharmaceutical and chemical compies who have left. And no one says a peep. The submissiveness of the media and a large share of the public is very concerning.

New Labour's shambolic management of the economy is rapidly taking us back to 3rd world conditions and people know it. If there was a real conservative party, Labour's support would be at 2%. Unfortunately we don't have a Conservative party any more and David Cameron is New Labour's biggest success.

Spartacus_Mills

adr0ck wrote: »

the tories in my locality are opposing a scheme for affordable housing

part of the scheme includes road widening and providing a footway (which is on the main route to school in the village) - road is currently 4 m wide with no footway

the school is on a list of possible future closure due to falling school numbers

our local tories can't seem to get it into their heads that by building more homes in the locality this will help save the school

by the way spartacus this will be the first time i will not be voting tory

I have never voted Tory in a GE in my life.

Your list is anecdotal and is assuming they are against one thing by not being for something else.

ninky_2

bernard_shaw wrote: »

I am truly beginning to believe that the Tories don't want to win. Weird. A couple of years ago, I thought DC was great. Now, him and [STRIKE]Gideon[/STRIKE] George Osbourne just come across as smirking Flashman-type public-school prefects.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

it's been said that people aren't supporting the tories because they don't know what they stand for. well i know very well what they stand for and that is why i'm not voting for them.

it's also been said that david davis should have won the tory leadership battle or been given shadow chancellor. well he didn't because the tory party is a party that would rather support smug smirking public school types than someone who is actually more competent. what other reason is there for giddy osborne to be shadow chancellor?

the tories are a party of privilege and for privilege.

i have had wobbles over labour. i've considered lib dem and greens. but when i look at my life and what i have in it then i thank labour for that.

i'm happy to live in a country with a minimum wage, civil partnerships, an open attitude to europe.

and i actually quite like gordon brown and 'eyebrows' darling. and i think any disagreement between them is a healthy and robust one. far better than chummies cameron and osborne patting each other on the back and devising more ways to help out their ex-bullingdon mates.