Tory lead down to 2 points, or is it.

drc

whathavewedone wrote: »

With a post like that Bernard Shaw, I can't believe you ever liked David Cameron or contemplated voting tory.

Getting the thread back to a slightly more adult level Spartacus makes some good points.

I'm a regular lurker on Political Betting and I'm really curious to know why Yougov have suddenly changed their methodology so dramatically when they were so accurate in the European and Mayoral elections. I will definitely be reading Kellner's explanation on Tuesday.

It is clear that the polls have narrowed and I think the tory lead is now below 10 but I'm having trouble trusting Yougov at the moment because I just can't work out why they have suddenly changed their methodology so that they are weighting the tories down by more than half and adding so much to Labour.

Oh and Rochdale: when all the polls were showing Labour to be 17-20 points behind the Conservatives I distinctly remember you saying things like, yeah but Ipsos Mori are rubbish because they weight on the basis of certainty to vote etc etc etc. So pot kettle!


It's certainly making this election a lot more exciting though and if the polls remain narrow I expect both Labour and the tories will have no trouble getting their core vote out.

I thought David Cameron's speech was very good but then I'm a real tory rather than a pretend one like Conrad, Hamish and Bernard. I don't really know how much more he could have done. One speech, however good, is not going to change people's minds.

Lets not forget that this has been a horrendous week for him, the first anniversary of his son's death. He could have gone down Gordon Brown's path and cried onstage to get loads of publicity but he didn't. Thank god.

At the moment Cameron comes across as vague and characterless. He's obviously hoping that aping Tony Blair's 1997 'persona' is going to get him lots of votes. But I think the last thing Conservative voters want is another Tony Blair - they want someone radicallly different and someone espousing typical 'Conservative' values rather than someone who sounds like they could be the leader of either Labour or the Lib Dems. Lets face it, most of the recent stuff that Cameron has said could have been said by Brown and nobody would have ever guessed the difference. What is more when Cameron thinks it's more important to have candidates based on their ethnicity rather than their actual ability he is verging into Labour territory, exactly the kind of thing that in the past has caused voters to leave Labour. Ergo, people are going to vote for the devil they know rather than the one they don't when the two seem so similar anyway.

cottonbelle

I think David Cameron came across very well this afternoon.

What gets me is the negative reporting of the media has really put the boot into the Conservatives!

They said that there is no policies, they don't know what they stand for, except fox hunting and helping their rich friends!

This is all just repeating what they are told by the media and the Labour spin machine!

At their autumn conference they put out at least 60 different policies which they haven't changed and they got panned for it, apparently now they are getting pulled apart in the press and media for having no policies - eh!

They say they are for their rich friends, maybe so in some respects but their 'rich friends' are the people that are the employers of this country the wealth and job creators!

The inheritance tax will help 3 million plus people of all backgrounds, would you prefer to leave your hard earned income over £350,000 to your children or family or to Gordon Brown and be taxed on it yet again by the government, I know which one I would choose!

Fox hunting they have already said that it is not a priority in the first parliament i.e 5 YEARS! and even then it will be on a free vote so it will be down to your MP to vote to keep it banned!

Have a really good hard look as GB said, at what the Conservatives are proposing and stop being sucked in by the press, and if you still want to vote for a Labour government and 5 more years of out of control spending then that is your choice!

And if you can't find what the answer is then I am sure the internet savvy people on this board and intelligent enough to go look for it on their website.

My choice is to give the Conservatives a chance and if they blow it then it will be in less of a way then Gordon Brown's destructiveness!

End of my rant!:)

Sir_Humphrey

cottonbelle wrote: »

I think David Cameron came across very well this afternoon.

What gets me is the negative reporting of the media has really put the boot into the Conservatives!

It is very difficult to argue that Gordon Brown has not rather negative coverage too. Even the Grauniad had the knife out on him.

The Tories have completely overplayed their hand in focussing on Brown's weaknesses. The tipping point in my opinion was when they went after Brown over the letters to the parents of the war dead.

I saw an "exclusive" in Friday's Sun by their political editor that was a blatant Tory plant, and written in a completely weasel-worded way (lots of speech marks etc). People aren't so thick that they cannot spot these things.

GeneHunt_2

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

The tipping point in my opinion was when they went after Brown over the letters to the parents of the war dead.

Offering to "sell" people shares from Banks they already own :mad: seems to have done them no favours.

liland2

GeneHunt wrote: »

Offering to "sell" people shares from Banks they already own :mad: seems to have done them no favours.

good god people have you lot not seen what gordo has done to the pound
,we are all going to get hit by this it is not good for the economy at all very short sighted,
all what is happening now will change after the election gordo will poo on us all from a great height i cannot believe that you think that things are going to carry on as they are now i think that you need a serious re think:mad::mad::mad:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

liland2 wrote: »

good god people have you lot not seen what gordo has done to the pound

Yes, returned it to a similar level against the dollar as it was when he became Chancellor.

Which is good for exports.

Did you have a point?

liland2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, returned it to a similar level against the dollar as it was when he became Chancellor.

Which is good for exports.

Did you have a point?

nope because companies from other countrys will not sell raw materals to uk producers in pounds i know this for a fact,
but surprise they will only pay for out bound goods in pounds so they getting hit both ways, :eek:

liland2

liland2 wrote: »

nope because companies from other countrys will not sell raw materals to uk producers in pounds i know this for a fact,
but surprise they will only pay for out bound goods in pounds so they getting hit both ways, :eek:

ooo and don't get me started on imports any time now ,how much the exchang rate can only be absorbed for a short while before it starts killing business, this applies to nearly all manufacturing,high street , food the list goes:eek: on just think about it a little

SailorSam

There are many places where if you put a monkey as a candidate he'd get in, as long as he had a blue hat on, and there are just as many where they already have monkeys wearing red hats.
What's the point of them doing a survey in those areas
The polls would mean more if they concentrated their efforts on those places that are going to decide who will win.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And he didn't.....

Flat, unconvincing, not enough exciting soundbites for the news replays......

They just can't seem to formulate convincing policy statements, in a clear and concisive way.

The coverage should give them a bounce, but they didn't fix the problem today. Not by a long shot.

It was a good speech, not his best, but not bad.

You miss the point of the speech. It was not about getting out detailed policy statements but about re-invigorating the activists and presenting Cameron to the people.

In both cases it was a success.

The coverage in the press I have seen has been largely favourable.