House prices drop in Scotland in real terms

DaddyBear

Just persusing Hamish's beloved register of Scotland, and their February report makes for interesting reading.

http://http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/Statistical%20Publication%20(Oct%20-%20Dec%202009)%20issued%20Feb%202010%20Final.pdf

They use quarterly figures which helps to remove the noise. Comparing Q4 2008 to Q4 2009 prices rose by only 1.3% in Scotland and 2.0% in Aberdeen. With inflation well above 2% this represents a drop in prices in real terms.

I'm a bit confused as it doesn't quite fit with this.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

+19.7% ~ Increase in average Aberdeen price between Mar & Nov 2009 Source:Register of Scotland

googler

Simple - the quoted 19% increase is in the AVERAGE price over the whole price range. I'm guessing that the number of sales at low prices over the period quoted dropped, and there were more sales at higher price bands. This takes the average up.

I can 'prove' that the average price in another Scots county went up 16% between first and second half of 2009, but when you look at the price-banded figures, the number of sales at £150k and below are down, whereas the sales at £300k and above jumped up by 200% - when you average this out, the average price goes up, but without any real increase in prices within the price bands......

Without knowing the source of the data, and the methodology of calculating the percentage, the figures are meaningless.

DaddyBear

googler wrote: »

Simple - the quoted 19% increase is in the AVERAGE price over the whole price range. I'm guessing that the number of sales at low prices over the period quoted dropped, and there were more sales at higher price bands. This takes the average up.

I can 'prove' that the average price in another Scots county went up 16% between first and second half of 2009, but when you look at the price-banded figures, the number of sales at £150k and below are down, whereas the sales at £300k and above jumped up by 200% - when you average this out, the average price goes up, but without any real increase in prices within the price bands......

Without knowing the source of the data, and the methodology of calculating the percentage, the figures are meaningless.

So Hamish believes that the price of his terraced house has rocketed because there were increases in the sales of detached houses!!!

Nosht

Still no great change in house prices, stagnant market at moment.

N.

DaddyBear

Care to justify this Hamish? Or do we just assume the obvious..... that your signature, like most of your figures, is pure BS.

DaddyBear

Your silence speaks volumes Hamish. Aberdeen is not the hotbed of HPI your sigature claims.

doire_2

:think: ...............

doire_2

I thought this would have been a ten pager by now

Mr.Brown_4

DaddyBear wrote: »

Your silence speaks volumes Hamish. Aberdeen is not the hotbed of HPI your sigature claims.

To be fair to Hamish even he takes a work break sometimes.

mitchaa

Aberdeen has remained stagnant for the past 2yrs, it has neither dropped nor gained in real terms.

Stats on low volume sales may prove otherwise, 1 month up +5%, 1 month down 5% but in real terms prices are identical to what they were 2yrs ago when the housing market in Scotland hit its peak.

I wish people would stop bleating on about Aberdeen, it's a small place with only 210,000 people or so. I do believe Edinburgh has performed similar and no one harps on about that.

Gets a bit boring, whatever will be will be. Unless you're buying and selling month in month out, figures are just meaningless.

God, how I've changed my tune

DaddyBear

mitchaa wrote: »

Aberdeen has remained stagnant for the past 2yrs, it has neither dropped nor gained in real terms.

Stats on low volume sales may prove otherwise, 1 month up +5%, 1 month down 5% but in real terms prices are identical to what they were 2yrs ago when the housing market in Scotland hit its peak.

I wish people would stop bleating on about Aberdeen, it's a small place with only 210,000 people or so. I do believe Edinburgh has performed similar and no one harps on about that.

Gets a bit boring, whatever will be will be. Unless you're buying and selling month in month out, figures are just meaningless.

God, how I've changed my tune

Totally agree, unfortunately one particular poster feels the need to justify himself by a big red signature that is completely misleading.