House Price Psychics - where are they now?

featherstick

Good on you. I'm glad it turns out that you think you bought at the right time.However, it could equally have gone the other way. It's not a nice feeling having paid (continuing to pay for decades) more for something than you could have (which is one reason we like prices to increase).

Buying property is a gamble, just like any other "investment" (if you choose to use that term).

I also suspect prices will fall in the next 1-2 years. I'm surprised that house prices have remained relatively high, despite high levels of unemployment and falling wages. Interest rates are low. What will all these people with large mortgages do if their wages get reduced? Or if they get made redundant? What about if interest rates rise considerably on their large mortgages? Once the general election is out of the way, I suspect there will be much greater chance of falls in the price of houses.

This is GOOD for the majority of people, even if you are selling a house and buying a larger house (a 1 percent reduction on 100,000 is greater than the same percentage reduction on 80,000).
It will not affect me or the majority of people who have already paid off their mortgages, as they probably bought when prices were much, much lower anyway. It might affect some of the youngsters who bought at the peak or who have overstretched (many people I know have).

So, in some respects I am not going to get too depressed when house prices fall. In a way I will feel happier for our children - who will hopefully find it easier than youngsters will find it at the moment. I feel sorry for people in their twenties, a generation who amounted student debts and who are essentially supporting a very large elderly population.

On the flip side, we are planning to emigrate over the next 2-3 years - so a nice rise would be quite nice now (maybe I should be trying to talk prices up? lol).
We may consider selling our houses soon, if we get the right offer and sit tight until moving abroad (where prices are also prone to rises and falls unfortunately).

By the way. Never trust an estate agent. Ever. In my experience of them they have been the most dishonest people I have met. They will rob you when you buy and they will rob you when you sell. Remember that they have a vested interest in property (fairly obvious, but people forget). I would welcome the demise of estate agents, which may not be out of the question when you consider how easy it is to sell online now.

Arthritic_Toe

not_loaded wrote: »

Good for you alexlyne in getting on with your life!

I suspect you’re talking about the longwinded posts and unsupported sig claims like “50%+ Falls in House Prices by Christmas 2009”. (sigs mysteriously gone now…)

Here, we’ve only seen a small drop right from the very beginning of the ‘crash’. For many months now, a slow but sure increase in prices.

I wonder how many listened to (and maybe are still listening to) the “Don’t Buy – Wait Forever” brigade? I’m all for participatory informed debate, but clueless predictions à la Mystic Meg? No.

It was (and still is for some) wishful thinking.

You really didn't have to be Mystic Meg to predict the 2007 crash, just an ability for rational thought. The ballooning credit bubble was there for all to see, but some people, including our current prime minister somehow failed to notice it.

featherstick

WhiteHorse wrote: »

When buying recently, I found that at the bottom end of the market prices are edging up as competition for cheapies can be cutthroat.

It's the top end that is stagnant. Most of those houses could only ever be bought with lunatic mortgages which are no longer available.

In this area at least, it has the opposite has been the case.

Mortgage lending has been low (I think there was something in the paper over the weekend about approvals being the lowest in 10 years).

People are not able to buy unless they have relatively high deposits. There are less people coming into the bottom of chains. Another reason why I think prices will fall.

redlady_1

When people start buying houses as homes as opposed to get rich quick schemes, and if you can afford it at the moment, who cares what will happen to the market? It is cyclical, it's the way of the world. I bought my house (completed in December) because I wanted to live there and it was within my budget. As long as I can continue to pay the mortgage then I can sit out any crash that may or may not be around the corner. If I make some money on it in the meantime then that is a bonus, should I decide to move.

Everyone is obsessed with making thousands of pounds as fast as possible and property programmes have not helped the issue at all. A house should be a home first. You go without much to get on that ladder - as I know! Too many people expect too much, too soon. It's not as if a 20% deposit is a new thing now is it?

Estate agents - well, I have dealt with two. The one who was selling my now home and was fantasic, another one who I tried to buy through was a lying cheating prat with no idea of the day of the week, let alone the property I was interested in.

featherstick

redlady_1 wrote: »

When people start buying houses as homes as opposed to get rich quick schemes, and if you can afford it at the moment, who cares what will happen to the market? It is cyclical, it's the way of the world. I bought my house (completed in December) because I wanted to live there and it was within my budget. As long as I can continue to pay the mortgage then I can sit out any crash that may or may not be around the corner. If I make some money on it in the meantime then that is a bonus, should I decide to move.

Everyone is obsessed with making thousands of pounds as fast as possible and property programmes have not helped the issue at all. A house should be a home first. You go without much to get on that ladder - as I know! Too many people expect too much, too soon. It's not as if a 20% deposit is a new thing now is it?

Estate agents - well, I have dealt with two. The one who was selling my now home and was fantasic, another one who I tried to buy through was a lying cheating prat with no idea of the day of the week, let alone the property I was interested in.

Nice post - all makes sense and sensible.

If prices go up, the price of the next house you buy will also have increased - so you won't make any money that way anyway. Something I am only recently working out.

It's only if you sell and live elsewhere that you make anything.

mlz1413

redlady_1 wrote: »

When people start buying houses as homes as opposed to get rich quick schemes, and if you can afford it at the moment, who cares what will happen to the market? It is cyclical, it's the way of the world. I bought my house (completed in December) because I wanted to live there and it was within my budget. As long as I can continue to pay the mortgage then I can sit out any crash that may or may not be around the corner. If I make some money on it in the meantime then that is a bonus, should I decide to move.

Everyone is obsessed with making thousands of pounds as fast as possible and property programmes have not helped the issue at all. A house should be a home first. You go without much to get on that ladder - as I know! Too many people expect too much, too soon. It's not as if a 20% deposit is a new thing now is it?

Estate agents - well, I have dealt with two. The one who was selling my now home and was fantasic, another one who I tried to buy through was a lying cheating prat with no idea of the day of the week, let alone the property I was interested in.

Here! Here! Too many people believe buying a house is like buying a cow that produces cash.

A house should be a home, this I agree with 100%, lets hope we see a return to it.

redlady_1

It makes me cross to see people behaving with such greed. Newsflash - stop envying your friends, they are probably all on the debt free wanabee board anyway.

20% deposits are still quite good. Alot of the reason the yoof of today struggle is because debt was a normal way of life for them growing up. Saving is an alien concept in many cases. I started work in the 80's and debt was not a good thing. People need to change their mentality.

My opinion on house prices and the economy for that matter - more pain to come. But until it does, I am going to be busy getting on with my life.

alexlyne

Also remember that there are still 10% deposit mortgages available.. to those who can prove (via their credit record) that are responsible. Includes me... I was bought up to save, and save I always try to do. Hell, after moving only 6 months ago, I'm saving for the next move, which I'm hoping to be at least 5 years away, if at all! And I still get my quality of life, I don't need a £40/mth contract on my iPhone and a Mitsu Evo8 for my life to be good!

Hectors_House

featherstick wrote: »

Nice post - all makes sense and sensible.

If prices go up, the price of the next house you buy will also have increased - so you won't make any money that way anyway. Something I am only recently working out.

It's only if you sell and live elsewhere that you make anything.

I second this.

I negotioated hard to get my house at a price we can afford without having to allocate 60% (or something else just as daft) of our wage to servicing the mortgage alone.

I let the EA know I was not buying the place as an 'investment' but to live in longterm.

The only neighbours upset about it all are those who were daft enough to to pay £125k to a seller who bought the place two years earlier for £45k.

Madness.

Bufger

Im in exactly the same position as you and i dont regret it at all.

In Christmas 2008 me and my partner decided we like living together, we had recently got engaged and wanted to set our lives up. We'd also both just got new good and steady jobs with career prospects so rather than going out 3 nights a week like all the other graduates i knew we decided to save for a deposit.

Our aim was to buy before the stamp duty came back as we were looking within the 125 - 175k bracket. We bought at the end of November 09 for 142k (saved that 1.4k of duty!).

Ive been checking the value of my house and others like it in the area and its gone up by an estimated 3k from the asking price (which we payed 7k under anyway). I dont see any sign of doom and gloom in my scenario as our mortgage is very easily manageable. If my partner was to fall pregnant and be off work i can still afford the whole mortgage + bills as i outright own everything else i have.

We're planning on staying here for a large number of years. Its way bigger than the 2 of us need but it would be perfect if we had 2 children, we wouldnt have any need to move unless we had more than that as there is even an excellent primary and secondary school within 1 mile.

I'm 25 by the way. My mates take the pi$$ that im an old man and yes, some of their cars are lovely and the fancy apartments they rent are swanky but im happy knowing ive set myself up for life and ive given a stable home to any future children i may have. (by the way im not an old fart, i still go out often enough! :rotfl:)