Bank of England Base Rate - When will it go up?

meanmachine_2

If the inflation figures continue to go "off message" they'll simply fiddle em.

That, combined with two doves about to start nesting at the MPC and I can see rates doing nothing foreveeeeeeer!

50% rise in house prices? The govt would LOVE it!

movieman

If the inflation figures continue to go "off message" they'll simply fiddle em.

Problem is, the longer they fiddle them, the worse things get. There are huge inflationary pressures which have been hidden by cheap imports from China, companies in Britain deliberately swallowing cost increases because there's too much competition to raise, and shifting unskilled jobs to short-term immigrants who are willing to work for less than native workers because they can go home in a couple of years rich by their standards.

Now, it's obvious to me that NuLab don't give a damn about the long-term problems they're creating, so maybe Gordon will keep fiddling the figures until the BoE have no choice but to raise rates to 10% to try to control inflation and end a run on the pound... but I think reality is likely to kick them in the !!! before then.

The simple fact is that price inflation is rising globally, asset price inflation is out of control and rates are going up all over. Britain can't pretend for long that there's a magic barrier at the cliffs of Dover which inflation just bounces off.

Pobby

It`s all quite clear to me.Inflation is measured by the following, dvd players,2 for 1 deals at Weatherspoons,White Lightening cider and Morrisons own brand mustard!That way you get round the thorny issues of house price inflation,energy costs and rising local taxes!

dougk_2

I'm not sure they ever count local taxation in anything!
The main reason for current inflation as I see it is rising fuel costs. They have an impact on every service and good supplied. The government could tackle this inflation by cutting the tax on fuels and "inflation" would then dissappear or alternitively investing properly in alternitive fuel sources - i.e renewables, solar, wave, wind etc because until we do fuel prices will continue to increase for the same reason as house prices - DEMAND

F_T_Buyer

Woby_Tide wrote:

well that's bad start if you can't even accurately predict historical prices....;);)

Very good. Obviously I meant 2007.

missey_2

you can now get Morrisons own brand mustard in 2 for 1 deal.....now we are in the !!!!!!:rotfl:

wibble68_2

meanmachine wrote:

If the inflation figures continue to go "off message" they'll simply fiddle em.

That, combined with two doves about to start nesting at the MPC and I can see rates doing nothing foreveeeeeeer!

50% rise in house prices? The govt would LOVE it!

Very cynical comments there Meany.

However, very accurate comments also.

I've long believed that the government will do anything to allow this
so called "Wonder economy" to continue.

Even if it means creating the biggest social divide this country
has ever seen by engineering a house price boom that won't stop.

Pobby

Even if it means creating the biggest social divide this country
has ever seen by engineering a house price boom that won't stop.[/QUOTE]


This to me is the scary bit.Ok it will stop/crash/stagflate or whatever at some point as all over heated markets all.BUT what about younger people who have come through the education system and have degrees.Are they gonna hang about in the U.K.No,many will and are doing so at the moment going abroad and taking their skills with them.

Kids in my family have no chance of getting away from home,even renting is not an option for them as they don`t earn enough money.Ordinary kids,quite prepared to work.So when they realise what has happened imho there will be a backlash and not one that is undeserved.The next few years will be at the least interesting!

Plasticman

My money is on a rate rise in August - but I'll put my hands up and admit i've been wrong before!

courtjester

Not that I know anything on this subject:-

... but did I not hear that the one of three at the Bank of England, who always voted in the minority to increase rates, recently died and so one factor to consider may be the attitude of his incoming replacement....

In addition, talk of interest rates going up around the world - is that not because interest rates in countries like the US have in fact been too low (2%?) for some time, hence need a re-alignment with reality, which would nto necessarily mean that UK rates have to be increased....