Gross mortgage lending declined in January

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do wish to be pedantic again.

2 months.

hold on - you avoid this post and come out with that. you seriously pick what you like to read.

chucky wrote: »

do you think the end of Stamp Duty holiday had anything to with it or even December always being a quiet month to go house buying?

as the stamp duty holiday was ending and seeing that it takes around 4-6 weeks from mortgage approval to completion to happen it makes complete sense that mortgages would be higher in Nov than Dec and even those planning to buy in Jan or Feb 2010 brought it forward.

Sir_Humphrey

I have found the actual figures lent by purpose.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/other/monetary/MortgageLendingFebruary2010.xls

To bring this back from the playground, this link shows the actual numbers of lending for various purposes.

Lending for house purchases was £7.5 bn in Dec 2009. In Jan 2010 it was £4.5 bn. For remortaging, £3 bn was lent in both Dec and Jan. Lending for other purposes is little changed.

To compare: Lending for purchases in Jan 2009 was £2.9 bn. In Jan 2008 (when prices were also crashing) it was £5.7 bn.

So from the PoV of Bulls, lending figures are better than this time last year (which were exceptionally bad) but worse than the year before that (which were bad).

The figures are seasonally adjusted.

Now I leave it to readers of this forum as whether they are interested in proper analysis or name calling. The link is well worth examining.

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

I have found the actual figures lent by purpose.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/other/monetary/MortgageLendingFebruary2010.xls

To bring this back from the playground, this link shows the actual numbers of lending for various purposes.

Lending for house purchases was £7.5 bn in Dec 2009. In Jan 2010 it was £4.5 bn. For remortaging, £3 bn was lent in both Dec and Jan. Lending for other purposes is little changed.

To compare: Lending for purchases in Jan 2009 was £2.9 bn. In Jan 2008 (when prices were also crashing) it was £5.7 bn.

So from the PoV of Bulls, lending figures are better than this time last year (which were exceptionally bad) but worse than the year before that (which were bad).

The figures are seasonally adjusted.

Now I leave it to readers of this forum as whether they are interested in proper analysis or name calling. The link is well worth examining.

if you'd read my post this is exactly what i asked for before you went on with your stupid comments.

until you see the lending figures you don't know the true picture.

here are the average mortgage amount approved - they've been averaging £130k for months.
with these numbers it's more bear food than bull food.

Nov 2009 108,252
Dec 2009 127,069
Jan 2010 100,000

Sir_Humphrey

So we are in agreement that this is rather bearish news? I thought you were trying to argue the opposite, so perhaps I mistook you for a bull.

Good.

Graham_Devon

I think we can concurr this is bearish news.

Hamish won't touch the thread.

Chucky is mounting a full on assault barrage, including bringing our children into it suggesting the homes we have are not good enough for children...along with the usual "dim" stuff.

Certainly seems to have caused some upset.

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

So we are in agreement that this is rather bearish news? I thought you were trying to argue the opposite, so perhaps I mistook you for a bull.

Good.

no - i was arguing that it was no news until you either had the lending number or you waited till next months data before you started making stupid comments about panicking and me not understanding it. as for graham he doesn't understand it at all...

but anyway...

here's going back 6 months - it's not enough bearish news that you'd expect, however it is not buillish news at all. if you think it's beariosh news i'd like to know why?

Aug 2009 £5.6b 57,000.0 98,246 average mortgage approval
Sep 2009 £5.9b 56,000.0 105,357 average mortgage approval
Oct 2009 £6.0b 60,000.0 100,000 average mortgage approval
Nov 2009 £6.5b 63,000.0 103,175 average mortgage approval
Dec 2009 £7.5b 60,000.0 125,000 average mortgage approval
Jan 2010 £4.9b 49,000.0 100,000 average mortgage approval

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think we can concurr this is bearish news.

Hamish won't touch the thread.

Chucky is mounting a full on assault barrage, including bringing our children into it suggesting the homes we have are not good enough for children...along with the usual "dim" stuff.

Certainly seems to have caused some upset.

don't be stupid Graham - i'm questioning your life choices. is that not allowed or is that something that you'd like to hide?

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

don't be stupid Graham - i'm questioning your life choices. is that not allowed or is that something that you'd like to hide?

Hide what?

I'm confizzled.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hide what?

I'm confizzled.

the confused bit is normal - you're not the brightest

i questioned something and you and Humpy turned it into something else.
i respond and you don't like it.
you tell me that i'm panicking (not sure at what).
i question your life choices and you claim i'm out of order.

you don't like the truth - it's quite simple.
deal with it or change your life :j

Rinoa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think we can concurr this is bearish news.

It's a blip.

When it all unfolds and lending goes back up in a month or two you'll remind us how January data was artificially lowered by the stamp duty change and bad weather.