Gross mortgage lending declined in January

Sir_Humphrey

To explain to Chucky: there is a correlation between mortgage approvals and house prices. Mortgage approvals (and the actual figures lent do not matter for this purpose) are a forward indicator of house prices.

This is not too difficult to understand why there is a correlation. If there are more approvals (and again the actual figures lent are immaterial) then in simple terms it means the market is chugging along leading to price rises. If they fall, the it means it is running out of steam. In short, it is a good measure of housing demand.

Chucky can argue the rationale until he is blue in the face, but the fact is that mortgage approvals are one of the most reliable indicators of house prices in a few months time. In fact, with the current volumes of houses entering the market for sale, approvals of 49000 would represent stagnation in the market rather than a renewed crash. Prior to 2008, approvals of around 70000-80000 a month would have indicated stagnation. This is because there was a much higher supply of housing coming on to the market at that time.

abaxas

No linky.... but didnt RM say Jan was the busiest month for new instructions ever?

chucky

you walk into these things too, too easy and so, so often...

no need to explain it to me - i'd suggest you'd stretch that limited capacity mind of yours...



unfortunately Humpy baby... in your desperation you're clinging onto one months falls of mortgage approvals.
do you think that upward or downward trends go up in straight lines - i'd rather wait to see a trend.

even some one as dim as yourself would understand this

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

in your desperation you're clinging onto one months falls of mortgage approvals.

I do wish to be pedantic again.

2 months.

And c'mon chucky, it's been a decent thread so far, let's not start with the dim / thick / idiot stuff? Especially when the rationale you have used to call them that is wrong!

Sir_Humphrey

chucky wrote: »

you walk into these things too, too easy and so, so often...

no need to explain it to me - i'd suggest you'd stretch that limited mind of yours...



unfortunately Humpy baby... in your desperation you're clinging onto one months falls of mortgage approvals.
do you think that upward or downward trends go up in straight lines - i'd rather wait to see a trend.

even some one as dim as yourself would understand this

Actually, I nearly linked to Spline's chart.

If you actually bothered to read my original post, I said that I was not drawing any firm conclusions from one month's data.

In fact that chart smartly shows how it is limited supply that is the only thing propping up prices. It clearly shows that approvals are way below boom levels.

I am a bit surprised a Bull would post that TBH. Oh yeah, you don't understand it!

BTW, that chart is not yet updated for the January figures, it is from 4th February.

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Actually, I nearly linked to Spline's chart.

If you actually bothered to read my original post, I said that I was not drawing any firm conclusions from one month's data.

In fact that chart smartly shows how it is limited supply that is the only thing propping up prices. It clearly shows that approvals are way below boom levels.

I am a bit surprised a Bull would post that TBH. Oh yeah, you don't understand it!

BTW, that post is not yet updated for the January figures, it is from 4th February.

lol - yep i don't understand it. i think you miss the point again posh lad

you can brong what you like from HPC.co.uk from Spline - it doesn't mean that it's right because i've linked to the original.

it's quite easy for you to claim many things but i'm still waiting for you to explain it all.

it's obviously that you can't and that explains why someone that went to Oxford and only works in the Civil Service on only £26k a year testing fireworks. isn't that a bit of a waste of good education?

i'd expect a bit more from someone who went to Oxford or was it Oxford poly that you went to? :T

Sir_Humphrey

Chucky's obviously worried.

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Chucky's obviously worried.

i doubt it - i'm not desperate enough to look to buy a flat in Croydon

how about if you try and explain the chart or are you copping out once again?

you copping out is becoming all too frequent an occurrence

Graham_Devon

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Chucky's obviously worried.

How could you tell?! :rotfl:

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Chucky's obviously worried.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How could you tell?! :rotfl:

lol - one of them can only a afford a shared ownership and the other can't afford to buy his dream flat in Croydon...

seriously lads i'd be more worried what you'd be doing at 30 or 40 and what kind of houses and areas your kids are going to grow up in. doesn't that worry you?