MSE News: Halifax: house prices down 1.5% in February

DaddyBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Absolutely.

December sales were hugely up due to people rushing in to beat the stamp duty, and Jan sales well down due to that, and the weather.

And of course, it's winter. Prices are supposed to be falling, like they do in most winters.;)

Which is why, bulls and bears alike, we have all been predicting for some time now that prices would indeed fall back a bit over winter. SO it's hardly a surprise when they do.

The real test is not the Jan/Feb numbers, but what is happening come March and April. That's when we'll know if the spring bounce is picking up steam, or whether people are delaying to see what happens with the election.

The stamp duty holiday certainly had an influence, and could explain the rises seen in the autumn and winter by bringing forward demand. However, the "cold weather" excuse is, well just an excuse and IMO complete BS.

I agree that March and April will tell us where the market is going, it will be a very interesting few months and very difficult to call.

DaddyBear

I like this graph.

StevieJ

I think even the most outrageous bulls (Hi Hamish ) were expecting price drops over the winter Nov-March, the market has been quite resilient, snow, stamp duty or whatever.

carolt

What a pretty graph, DaddyBear - shows us which way the wind is likely to be blowing.

Graham_Devon

It drizzled too.

So -1.5% aint bad.

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

Or put off selling when prices fell and they now believe prices have now risen sufficiently to market?

Unless you think last year was normal for people marketing property?

I thought it was widely accepted people were holding back selling last year and the economic circumstances were far worse then.

So in reality for your summery to be true more should have been put on the market last year than in 2007 and 2008.

Cluttons have reported more London property (BTL) has been listed for sale on the market, in the expectation that capital gains tax is likely to increase from 18% to 25% in the post election budget.

Really2

carolt wrote: »

What a pretty graph, DaddyBear - shows us which way the wind is likely to be blowing.

So you must be thinking prices to be fairly stagnant now and the rest of the falls through inflation adjustment.;)

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Cluttons have reported more London property (BTL) has been listed for sale on the market, in the expectation that capital gains tax is likely to increase from 18% to 25% in the post election budget.

you mean Cluttons who specialise in property in Central London right?

CGT is one reason but for an unbiased view - here's what cluttons actually said

While stock in the Capital remains historically low, we have noticed a trend that the properties that are coming to the market are from investors wary of a possible capital gains tax hike and cashing in on the current high prices being achieved.

martinbuckley

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And of course, it's winter. Prices are supposed to be falling, like they do in most winters.;)

Which is why, bulls and bears alike, we have all been predicting for some time now that prices would indeed fall back a bit over winter. SO it's hardly a surprise when they do.

Apart from these years:

Feb 96: +0.9%
Feb 97: +1.2%
Feb 98: +0.9%
Feb 99: +0.4%
Feb 00: +2.2%
Feb 01: -0.5%
Feb 02: +1.6%
Feb 03: +0.3%
Feb 04: +2.6%
Feb 05: +0.7%
Feb 06: +0.0%
Feb 07: +0.9%

My, we have had some very mild winters over those years - only one negative in sight!

Really2

martinbuckley wrote: »

Apart from these years:

Feb 96: +0.9%
Feb 97: +1.2%
Feb 98: +0.9%
Feb 99: +0.4%
Feb 00: +2.2%
Feb 01: -0.5%
Feb 02: +1.6%
Feb 03: +0.3%
Feb 04: +2.6%
Feb 05: +0.7%
Feb 06: +0.0%
Feb 07: +0.9%

My, we have had some very mild winters over those years - only one negative in sight!

TBF I don't think winter is classed as Feb alone.;) Last three months (Dec + Jan+Feb) are =+1.8%