MSE News: Base Rate 'to stay frozen until 2011'

chucky

stueyhants wrote: »

I'm guessing Graham actually means it's saving the boomers 'Asset' prices (i.e houses) for when they will need to cash them in to fund their retirement. IR rises are really the only threat left to the housing market recovery.

i'd go further than that and add something else - there is a limited amount of cash to be lent at the moment. if that doesn't progressively increase (as it has been doing) there will be too little cash and too many properties coming on the market. it will be a buyers market again and prices will drop due to over supply.

stueyhants

chucky wrote: »

i'd go further than that and add something else - there is a limited amount of cash to be lent at the moment. if that doesn't progressively increase (as it has been doing) there will be too little cash and too many properties coming on the market. it will be a buyers market again and prices will drop due to over supply.

Is that why your are selling ? Are you predicting this mini-bounce is coming to an end and prices will fall ?

I've just bought, part of my reasoning is I can get a decent BoE tracker (60% LTV) and I'll be able to overpay like made whilst rates stay low. I expect BoE rates to remain low for 2 years, however fixed rates and SVRs I think will start to head up for the reasons you mentioned (rationing of funds) and other reasons such as bond market yields. QE can be withdrawn from the system before BoE rates head up, fiscal tightening can be used to control inflation in the short term.

Given the current market conditions .... would you buy right now ? (btw, I'm not using this as financial advise, I'll promptly ignore what you say :rotfl:)

doire_2

MSE_Guy wrote: »

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Interest rates could stay on hold at their 0.5% record low throughout this year and well into 2011, it is claimed ..."

Read the full story:
Base Rate 'to stay frozen until 2011'

Bit of a misleading headline...then you post Interest rates could stay on hold at their 0.5% record low

doire_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

Hmmm... yes.

Tell it to Capital Economics and all the clever chaps at HPC.co.uk who predicted massive price drops over 2009

Oh dear

:beer:

My favourite had to be when CE admitted they hadnt a clue in April 2007, and predicted that house prices would keep rising

What a bunch of clowns

You slagging off HPC? :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Dont make me post what you said about the economy again. What a gem that was :rotfl::rotfl:

Really2

stueyhants wrote: »

Given the current market conditions .... would you buy right now ? (btw, I'm not using this as financial advise, I'll promptly ignore what you say :rotfl:)

I did In August 08 it looked a terrible time to buy, builders were in serious liquidity problems (Fire sales ) but proves a good time to buy.

I think you will be buying in a time of nominal stagnation and low IR. So you it will be a good time like you said to get the mortgage paid down. I knocked 7% out last year.

Harry_Powell

kriss_boy wrote: »

Cant say I agree with that.

My girlfriend and I saved about 10 grand in 18months, both on only around 14/15K a year back then too.

Savings easy if you are willing to make sacrifices and houses are cheaper than ever.

An ideal FTB 1 bed flat was once 75K in my town but now theres many at fixed prices of 65-70K.

FTBs? Lucky b*ggers!

Yes, I dare say FTBers are OK in Hull, but try getting anything other than a cardboard box in London, or even most of the SE for £75k.

chucky

stueyhants wrote: »

Is that why your are selling ? Are you predicting this mini-bounce is coming to an end and prices will fall ?

no - it makes sense for me to sell. cashing in 100% profit is a good thing. being greedy is a bad thing.

i rented out that property 18 months ago and went to rent myself until i found something to buy at a good price and also with a good mortgage rate. i found the right property in Jan 2009. i would never have sold in 2008 and been able to buy at a good price in 2009. so i've bought at a good price in 2009 and sold (fingers crossed) at a good price in 2010.

stueyhants wrote: »

Given the current market conditions .... would you buy right now ?

i don't think it's ever a bad time to buy as long as you can afford it.
you're a smart guy and you're post shows that you're not looking at just the ticket price of the property. the actual price of the property isn't what the estate agent tells you.

stueyhants wrote: »

(btw, I'm not using this as financial advise, I'll promptly ignore what you say :rotfl:)

good man - i expect nothing else.
a few of people on here see my user name and instantly ignore it

Running_Horse

Got my annual mortgage statement, and for the first time in memory all twelve payments were exactly the same. Why shouldn't we have a nice long period of low interest rate stability? It can hardly harm business and the economy. I don't understand the sack cloth and ashes brigade who want everyone to suffer. Cheer up you miserable b*st*rds.

Running_Horse

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Yes, I dare say FTBers are OK in Hull, but try getting anything other than a cardboard box in London, or even most of the SE for £75k.

Lots of places in Kent can be bought for a third of £75,000 a year.

stueyhants

I'm buying a long term house so don't really care about short term fluctuations in price. The benefit of buying now is low IR and that has to be factored in against the 'ticket' price of the house.
The area I live in is protected from development (national park), you can only redevelop existing plots and can't really build anything new. Demand for the area is high and most people who buy don't need a mortgage and often come from areas such as London where prices are higher so even thought it's high prices around here it's still 'affordable' for them.
So taking this reduced supply in context with low IR it just seemed the right time. In 20 years time the price I pay now will bare little resemblance to the price then due to inflation etc.

Just a warning to the bulls out there, the market is going to crash now that I’ve bought, my predictions last year were terrible so my predictions of a stable market now are also going to be poor and prices will fall !!