End of QE

aelitaman

Thrugelmir wrote: »

We will never get back to .5% margins being the norm.

Expect rates above base of 2.0% - 2.5% for low LTV borrowers rising to 4% - 5% for 90% borrowers, in the years to come.

This is only relevant if you tell us what the BoE base rate will be.

Thrugelmir

aelitaman wrote: »

This is only relevant if you tell us what the BoE base rate will be.

Personally I would go for between 3% - 4% by end of 2011.

Thrugelmir

Joeskeppi wrote: »

The only people who are going to be choking on debt after IR's have decreased so much is those made unemployed or given less hours surely? Everyone else is paying at worst the same as pre-crash?

Edit: Ok not everyone, but y'know.

But we know tax rises are on the way.

There's already 1% NIC and frozen personal allowances for 2 years in the pipeline.

So interest rates alone aren't the issue. Its the combination of lots of factors. Which will result in less take home pay for many.

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

But would they shout about it?

Especially to you, who are so financially savvy and all...

Bit of a strange comment that Carol as I don't think I come across as someone who thinks they are all that with their finances. I'm probably just like most people out there in that I'm by no means a financial genius, but I try to be sensible, think a bit about the future and ensure that we enjoy life whilst not overstretching ourselves. I might have a bit too much faith in humanity but I think most of us are pretty much the same. The majority of us muddle through okay in the end with a mixture of good planning and bit of luck.

Maybe you're right and people hide their debt well. I really don't know.

carolt

Do you have friends with kids? All mine do, and I think debt is quite common. Kids are expensive. Lots of people worried about paying the mortgage, keeping their jobs etc.

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

Do you have friends with kids? All mine do, and I think debt is quite common. Kids are expensive. Lots of people worried about paying the mortgage, keeping their jobs etc.

We have lots of friends with kids. They have debt, as we all do to some extent, although I don't think many are 'choking' on it. And like your friends they will be worried about paying their mortgage and keeping their job to a certain extent. Aren't we all in a recession? It's only natural. The truth of the matter is that the vast majority of them will keep their jobs and be able to pay their mortgage.

And haven't kids always been expensive? And haven't people always worried about losing their jobs and paying their mortgage in a downturn or recession? I guess the counter argument to that is that it's different this time and that people are funding their lifestyle through debt, which I take on board.

Cleaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Personally I would go for between 3% - 4% by end of 2011.

So I guess the key question is whether a significant amount of people would find themselves struggling, or at the very least not living life in the same way, if mortgage rates went to 6-7%, they had no payrise or a small pay decrease and if taxes went up by a few percent.

I have no answer to the above and don't know enough to have an opinion. I guess it depends what percentage of people's income is disposable and lots of complex economic modelling to work out what effect this reduction of disposable income in the econmy has on things like GDP and house prices etc.

I'm starting to worry myself now. Hamish, my old flame-haired mucker, I'm a homeowner so is there any chance you could pop on and tell me that everything is going to be just dandy? Thanks sunshine.

sabretoothtigger

They havent quit QE just paused it. Its quite likely when times get a bit rough they'll print more money to 'fix' things again

Cleaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You never know. I doubt some of the bulls on here are as savvy as they suggest.

Thrugel, I think we both know that the people who spend their time on here with a constant mantra that we're all screwed, doomed and everything is awful are the same deep down as the ones who are always trying to tell us that everything will be fine and rosy in the world. Both sets of people have some serious self-doubt issues are are probably very unsure of their convictions in real life.

bo_drinker

Cleaver wrote: »

Isn't it it the classic 'take the stabilisers off the bike' moment? I guess two scenarios are possible when you remove the stablilisers: a) the kid isn't ready to cope on two wheels, the bike falls over and the kid smashes their face in, or b) the kid carries on biking (maybe with a bit of an initial wobble) and rides off happily down the street not needing any support.

Oh, and just incase anyone needs help - bears support a) and bulls support b). Because it is just that clear cut.

More like all the bikes were made in China, the kid wasn't ready to go it alone the stabiliser breaks(from China) the kid comes off and gets a bloody nose for a long time and is too scared to get on the bike again. The bike lays on the floor and a tumbleweed blows by again and again. The end.