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Debate House Prices


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Scottish house prices will take years to return to peak

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Comments

  • From Bernards report,

    The importance of Aberdeen City and Shire’s energy sector should be put in context. In proportion to the total population, an industrial sector employing around 40,000 people here is equivalent to one employing 630,000 in London.

    All the eggs in one basket?
    and

    Oil Production

    The UK is the nineteenth largest oil producer in the world but UKCS production has been declining in recent years as the province matures and discoveries are smaller.
    UKCS oil production in 2007 was 583 million barrels. This exceeded UK consumption by 8 million barrels. In 2008, UKCS oil production fell to 549 million barrels, which was almost enough to cover all UK domestic consumption. Current forecasts predict this decline in production will continue at approximately 5-6% a year for the next four years.
    It is predicted that the UKCS should still be able to meet approximately 40% of the nation’s oil demand by 2020.
    The 2008 Energy Act indicates that imports may potentially account for 80% of
    our gas needs by 2020.

    A decline of 70% in Capex spending in the next five years, production dropping 6-7% a year, pipelines and production rigs being pulled out and de-comissioned before the small remaining pockets can be developed, things aren't looking great for Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire and even the UK which relies on the tax revenues.

    Things really aren't looking good for Aberdeen/shire in the medium to long term. Your average mortgage is 25 years.....
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