Scottish house prices will take years to return to peak

IveSeenTheLight

wellieboot wrote: »

Guys,

Still looking at "average" figures I see. Averages mean nothing. All it takes in Edinburgh is for JK Rowling to move house and the average that quarter shoots up.

* A train is 10 minutes early then 10 minutes late, 10 minutes early then 10 minutes late again. So on average it's on time so everything is hunky dory? Maybe not.

You have a very valid point in that people should be looking at their local areas and why in my graph I include the local areas I have a VI in.

I do break down the data further and much more local to the areas and types of property I have invested in.

The topic however was relating to an article about Scottish house prices in general, hence why the whole area of Scotland is being discussed.

As for you J K Rowlings point, you are possibly not aware that the ROSEA omit properties of value in excess of 1 million therefore if she was to move the data would likely not be included in the stats.

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I think I know the answer.

ISTL put you in your place - any reply... :rolleyes:

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You may think you know the answer but looking at the title "Scottish House Prices will take years to return to eak", it would seem they are already grossly out in their prediction.

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Poor confused little boy.

the poor little confused boy with no facts looks like it's you (again) :money:

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

ISTL put you in your place - any reply... :rolleyes:



the poor little confused boy with no facts looks like it's you (again) :money:

HeHe, he lives up to his name
It's too easy to shoot down with facts

donaldtramp

Scottish market, they believe that unfavourable demographics and an overdependence on the public sector and the oil and gas sector will suppress house price growth over the coming decade.

The report explained: "As Scotland is one of the regions most dependent on the public sector for jobs, the looming public sector squeeze will have a significant impact on its housing market."

What happens after the election when the public sector gets a kicking and loads of folk are laid off?

As for Oil, there are 8 or 9 drilling rigs (highest number for a long, long time) stacked (parked) at Invergordon just now. A couple of them have already been towed off to India.

North Sea production is declining massively. In 15-20 years time all there is going to be in Aberdeen is tumbleweed and broken windows. How long is left on your mortgage Hamish?

Volume is rising, significantly. Now at 65% to 70% of peak in Aberdeen. Certainly high enough to be a statistically significant sample size.

Out of interest, where did you get those figures from?

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

North Sea production is declining massively. In 15-20 years time all there is going to be in Aberdeen is tumbleweed and broken windows.

Yawn, you are blind to what is actually happening in the Oil & Gas industry.
As you've been advised before, Aberdeen for a long time already has been supplying expertice globally, not just the North Sea.
You also dismiss the move into greener energy options.
You must also not have heard the tax incentives the government are considering to help develop in the Atlantic shelf where it is believed that 20% of the reserves are

donaldtramp wrote: »

Out of interest, where did you get those figures from?

Regarding transaction levels, I believe they are readily verifiable from the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency

donaldtramp

Yawn, you are blind to what is actually happening in the Oil & Gas industry.

No I'm not. That's what I do, all day, every day for a living. What do you do? Apart from blethering on forums?

As you've been advised before, Aberdeen for a long time already has been supplying expertice globally, not just the North Sea.

As you've been advised before, Aberdeen will be undercut massively (it already is a lot of areas by plants in Poland, China and Malaysia) as production of hardware continues to move abroad

You also dismiss the move into greener energy options.

SNP greenwash. If you believe any of that, you are a fool. We buy the equipment from Denmark, get 30 guys to build the wind turbines and get a couple of guys to maintain the field. Woopidoo. That's going to fill the gap when all the rigs start decommisioning off Aberdeen.

You must also not have heard the tax incentives the government are considering to help develop in the Atlantic shelf where it is believed that 20% of the reserves are

Oh I've heard. That's what I do.
"Where it is believed, 20% of the reserves are", What about the other 80% where production is falling off a cliff?

bernard_shaw

donaldtramp wrote: »

You must also not have heard the tax incentives the government are considering to help develop in the Atlantic shelf where it is believed that 20% of the reserves are
Oh I've heard. That's what I do.

"Where it is believed, 20% of the reserves are", What about the other 80% where production is falling off a cliff?

EASTER ISLANDER 1: Oooh, maybe we should think carefully before cutting down this last stand of trees. Without trees, we wouldn't be able to make and transport the Big Heads.

EASTER ISLANDER 2: Don't worry, tree depletion is over-hyped.

EASTER ISLANDER 1: I can see with my own eyes that these are the last trees.

EASTER ISLANDER 2: No, no, I've heard reports of a couple of saplings growning on the other side of the island.

EASTER ISLANDER 1: A couple of saplings will not maintain the way of life we've become used to: they're not a big enough resource to support our Big Head economy. I'd hate to think what life would be like if we had to give up making the Big Heads, they're so important to our culture, our way of life, everything about us.

EASTER ISLANDER 2: Take it easy, something's bound to turn up. CHOP CHOP CHOP.

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

No I'm not. That's what I do, all day, every day for a living. What do you do? Apart from blethering on forums?

You can't be doing it all day, your blethering on in here.
I live in Malaysia thus this is not my working day

donaldtramp wrote: »

As you've been advised before, Aberdeen will be undercut massively (it already is a lot of areas by plants in Poland, China and Malaysia) as production of hardware continues to move abroad

LOL, I live and work in Malaysia so know quite a bit about the South East Asia Market.
Previously I was involved with the African market.

I can tell you that there is an acceptance in the industry that these local regions will never become self sufficient and there is a management understanding to have a minimum expat requirement.

This is largely being supported by expertice from Aberdeen, globally.

You readily dismiss the impact on Aberdeen supporting global contracts.

donaldtramp wrote: »

SNP greenwash. If you believe any of that, you are a fool. We buy the equipment from Denmark, get 30 guys to build the wind turbines and get a couple of guys to maintain the field. Woopidoo. That's going to fill the gap when all the rigs start decommisioning off Aberdeen.

I heard a report the other day about the concerns over blackouts in the UK due to power shortages and that the governments policy was to cover this via renewable energy.

If you believe that 30 guys will manufacture, install, maintain etc supply for the whole of the UK then you are missguided I believe.

Here a couple of links that may help

http://www.all-energy.co.uk

http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com/

http://www.greenoceanenergy.com/

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/304851/aberdeen_turns_from_oil_to_renewables.html

donaldtramp wrote: »

Oh I've heard. That's what I do.
"Where it is believed, 20% of the reserves are", What about the other 80% where production is falling off a cliff?

I am not dismissing UK production is declining, I believe there is still probably enough to keep going through the remainder of my working life that's for sure.

You are however dismissing the support Aberdeen provides globally, which is a much bigger picture than just the North Sea.

donaldtramp

You can't be doing it all day, your blethering on in here.

I like a blether:p

You readily dismiss the impact on Aberdeen supporting global contracts.

No I admit they do support a great deal abroad. It's just I don't see the requirement for the base in Aberdeen as the Oil industry dies off up here.
I know 2 major subsea contractors that have low cost engineering houses in India. With t'internet there is no need to keep paying the salaries of engineers and draughtsmen in the UK. The engineering grads in India are sharp as tacks (there are 10s of thousands of them with good degrees) and they are willing to work for much, much less than the UK ones.

I heard a report the other day about the concerns over blackouts in the UK due to power shortages and that the governments policy was to cover this via renewable energy.

If you believe that 30 guys will manufacture, install, maintain etc supply for the whole of the UK then you are missguided I believe.

Yup read the same article. Re-newable energy won't cut it. IMO. Nuclear will be required.
The UK/Scottish government has done no-where enough to capture this market.
Why build it in Aberdeen/Scotland at all? It's too expensive up here.
It is being built abroad and installed here.
There is still almost nothing behind this "energy corridor" and all the associated new energy quangos set up by the government and Councils. Other than very few jobs and an area marked out on a map as far as I can see.
Bit sad that we're letting it all slip away from us.

I am not dismissing UK production is declining, I believe there is still probably enough to keep going through the remainder of my working life that's for sure.

I'm not so sure for me.... but I reckon it might. If I keep saving I'll be OK when it goes down the pan anyhoo.

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I heard a report the other day about the concerns over blackouts in the UK due to power shortages and that the governments policy was to cover this via renewable energy.

If you believe that 30 guys will manufacture, install, maintain etc supply for the whole of the UK then you are missguided I believe.

Here a couple of links that may help

http://www.all-energy.co.uk

http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com/

http://www.greenoceanenergy.com/

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/304851/aberdeen_turns_from_oil_to_renewables.html

I'm very keen on renewable energy. However, a replacement for the North Sea Oil and Gas industry's levels of activity it is not.

The recent announcement of the Round 3 offshore wind zone licenses has increased the size of the worldwide market for the offshore windpower supply chain ten-fold. 32 GW of capacity will be developed in UK waters by 2020 - potentially a quarter or more of the UK’s electricity needs.

According to The Ecologist online newspaper (thanks for the link) the UK offshore wind sector is now reckoned to be worth £75bn over the next 10 years.

Impressive stuff. Until you compare it with the sheer magnitude of capital and operating expenditure once involved in offshore O&G (decline of 70% between 2006 and 2011). And until you consider what the British Wind Energy Association say:

....despite the nation's lead in offshore wind energy generation, it currently trails behind other big wind energy producing countries – particularly Germany, Denmark and Spain – in manufacturing, design and supply chain jobs.

So, yes, the renewables market is here. But the industry already resides elsewhere.

The All-Energy website you linked to has an "Industry Jobs" section. Currently it's displaying one (1) job vacancy in renewables in Scotland!

Thanks also for the link to aberdeenrenewables.com. Busy place...... not!
http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com/default.asp?ContentID=8
(Why have they not even bothered putting out a press release about the Round 3 announcement? Perhaps because this bonanza will barely graze the Aberdeen economy.)